A little over a month ago, the finest restaurant in my town, which employed dozens of people, including many of the area's teens and young adults, closed it's doors. It was a shock to the community, since the restaurant had been in business for around 30 years. It was also a shock to me, since two or my daughters lost their jobs, and a third daughter was out of luck on her expectations of returning to work there during college breaks.

Now the word is out that two more of our town's major retailers--GAP Outlet and Rebok Outlet--are closing up shop at our Outlet Mall.

When I moved to this area, almost nine years ago, the Outlet Mall was packed with going businesses: clothing, furniture, toys, candies, shoes, books, feed and tack, a paper warehouse, hair stylists, vitamins, a Claire's, and a craft mall. There was long slide down, punctuated by exploding gas prices, since the mall was heavily dependent on city folks driving out to scoop up bargains. About a year ago, our town's only grocery store, which is located in the mall, threatened to close, but did not. The story was, their energy bills were killing them after our town raised rates for electricity. I assume they were able to negotiate a better deal--unlike local residents, who saw their electric bills double during the same period.

Yesterday I heard that our town's only new-car dealership will be closing. I'm guessing this rumor is correct.

Our town's only manufacturer, which used to employ 300 people, had virtually closed down as of about a year ago, with the number of employees down to about 30 people. It may have closed down entirely at this point. I haven't kept up on their doings.

Like many small towns, we've had two distinct retail districts over the past few decades: the "old downtown," made up of historically locally owned small business, and the new complex including the mall and the nearby architecturally impressive enterprises, all situated along the freeway. These closings will mean that nearly all of the area's modern retail space--which comprises a vast complex of big, modern buildings--will be sitting empty. (I'm told the rents in the Outlet Mall are insane, but I won't quote the figures I've heard, because they're just rumor.)

Almost all of our retail businesses that are still open are located in the "old downtown"--which looks like every other small-town retail district in the US, and is made up of brick buildings that date from around 1900. At least one dates back to the 1800s. I've been told that some families who are running small businesses in the "old downtown" have owned their buildings for generations, which explains how they can stay in business, and probably will stay in business, tax and utility bills permitting.

I sure hope so. Quite a few retailers who didn't own their buildings have already gone out of business, even in the old part of town, and some of them have been a sad loss to the community.

Closed businesses are pretty bad here. Our local newspaper here in Staten Island has a nice blog with pictures of businesses closing.

Link here:

http://www.silive.com/entertainment/dini....

By the way, the City Council here is voting on a bill to mandate 5-9 days of sick pay to all businesses that have full time employees, depending on the number of employees. Nice, huh? I predict you'll see tumbleweeds in some of those pictures in a year or two after they pass this legislation.

Staten Island, lol ! Aren't you the armpit of NY ? Or did Newark take over that award ?

We are so ****ed

Newark is trying, but we found another couple of murdered bodies lying around in our parks this last week. I think we still hold that edge.

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Almost all of our retail businesses that are still open are located in the "old downtown"--which looks like every other small-town retail district in the US, and is made up of brick buildings that date from around 1900. At least one dates back to the 1800s. I've been told that some families who are running small businesses in the "old downtown" have owned their buildings for generations, which explains how they can stay in business, and probably will stay in business, tax and utility bills permitting.

Small Biz with low debt and low fixed costs can last longer here than mall outlets, but they cannot last indefinitely, because the product supply they sell will diminish. Also diminshing is the ability of the consumer to buy whatever products they do have left to sell at any price.

However, if you look at the small local biz as "organic, grassroots" economics, said stores may continue to function in a Barter Mode, and transition to locally produced goods over time. This would depend on the ability of the community to produce goods necessary for local commerce, or begin the trade of exogenous goods produced in the Oil Era that are "in stock" in many basements and many drawers.

The problem most of these Trading Posts face is the Tax Problem, in that even if they do successfully position themselves in a Barter Economy, they will not have Dollar Revenue to pay taxes on the Property they use for their stores. It would depend on local Goobermint to reform that, and basically a repudiation of Federal or State Taxes to keep the Biz going.

I used to drive a Big Rig, I was a Long Haul OTR Trucker for 6 years, leasing to Schneider National and JB Hunt, two of the biggest OTR companies in the Biz. One of many types of jobs I held over the years, I also spent years as a Clinical Chemist, as a Teacher and as a Risk Analyst for the Money Manager's office at Merrill Lynch right out of HS before it made me PUKE. LOL. In that time, I travelled thru many towns in the US and in Canada, and travelled many times to Europe as well. Some of those places are self-sustainable in economic terms in a cellular fashion, but not too many.

I am curious as to where your town is, and the demographics. It is a kind of hobby of mine to rank sustainability of various regions and towns in the US and elsewhere.

RE

It would be nice if those of you who are posting about economic conditions would tell us WHERE. The nearest continent would be fine.

My area is doing well actually. The house prices are still rising (well, on an uptrend):

http://www.zillow.com/local-info/NY-Alba....

Also, I'm being made a fool of by being so bearish with my friends, as one, who works for a container company sends me this email:

Well, you may be correct on what's going on with jobs in America... all I know is that we are very busy. So busy that they pulled me off the road so I'd stop bringing in business! We're going 24/7 and the industry (custom packaging manufacturing) in general is doing well across the Country. I was in Maspeth (Long Island) the other day and everyone I called on (packaging distributors) were busy as hell.

What to think of this? I don't know.

"So busy that they pulled me off the road so I'd stop bringing in business!"

Has it been like this all year or did it pick up only recently? Are they riding the holiday readiness wave (don't know if this applies at all; custom packaging could be anything)? Did any of their competitors go BK thus leaving few options?

No, he's been skeptical about my view of the world since this began. Business is good for him and he's got no reason to lie to me, even offering me a job!

I'm noticing Home Depot and Lowes being particularly empty of customers though.

The pet store is jammed but something strange though, they packed the aisles with all kinds of crap like they are trying to FORCE people to buy stuff. You can't even turn your cart around or get it through some places. Looks like desperate promotion going on.

Sharon, your penchant for anonymity - Does that HAVE to include the area you are mentioning in your anecdotal information?

Bozonian--sorry I didn't post my location. Some days I just get nervous if I can't find my burqa, I guess.

I live in the country, outside Odessa, Missouri, which is about an hour east of Kansas City, on I-70. Odessa has a population of 3,000-4,000.

The peculiarity of these little towns marching outward from KC along the freeway is that each of them has (or had) at least one major corporate retailer that could draw business into the town from a large area--from all the surrounding towns, and even from the KC. Some have/had a manufacturer, as well.

The presence of these corporate enterprises is critical to a small town's employment and tax base, when the town has crossed over the line from being a suburban to an exurban community. For example, there are people in Odessa who commute to the city to work, but Odessa remains the utmost outer limit of exurbia. Most local people have to find relatively more local employment.

As you move outward from the city along I-70, your first stop is Independence, an old suburb suffering from the encroachments of the city and its problems. Next stop is Blue Springs, historically one of the tonier Missouri suburbs, and still rocking, with lots of corporate retailers. Next is Grain Valley, which doesn't count, being as it's in a flood plain, but is still an easy commute.

It's here that you cross the line into exurbia. Next out from the city is Oak Grove. Without Wal-Mart and the truck stops, Oak Grove would have a wholly local economy. Next out is Bates City, a town so tiny that it doesn't have a local business district. Most of the population of Bates City is located in a large trailer park with a bad rep. Its main businesses are a small discount tobacco retailer/liquor store, and a couple of very good restaurants.

Odessa is the farthest-out commutable exurb--a real hinterland economy. Luckily, Odessa used to have a huge Outlet Mall. Peole would drive from all over the area, and even out from KC, to shop for bargains. Odessa also had a four-star restaurant that drew people from far-flung regions. It also helped to have an imressively large Ford dealership and a decent-sized manufacturer.

Before all this went south, I imagine our city fathers looked with justifiable pride at having a dinky exurban town that featured a dozen major retailers and fine dining, and was able to support a music store, a health club, a florist, and a couple of chocolatiers. A few years ago, there was even a homemade ice-cream shop that was famous throughout the area.

All these businesses were flourishing when I moved here almost nine years ago. At the risk of sounding like an uber-consumer, I have to say it was pretty cool. I felt like I had discovered a secret low-rent district with all the amenities.

What creeps me out is that all of this that has not already disappeared is rumored to be on the way out. With the exception of a good grocery store and a kick-ass Mexican restaurant, we are just about down to the local economy in the old downtown. The anchor businesses of the old downtown are, predictably, the hardware store, the drug store, and the dollar store. Others are a relatively new florist, a relatively new fitness center, a used appliance dealer, a consignment store, a used furniture dealer, a junk store, a laundromat, and an attorney or two.

In other words, Odessa's economy has pretty well reverted to the small-town economy of the 1950s--and it's happened in 6-8 years!

Now that you filled in the pertinent details, excellent anecdotal info.

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the hardware store, the drug store, and the dollar store. Others are a relatively new florist, a relatively new fitness center, a used appliance dealer, a consignment store, a used furniture dealer, a junk store, a laundromat, and an attorney or two.

Except for that last entry, sounds like a pretty good mix!

Sharon
Thank you for that. I used to live in KC in the Martin City area. I see similar but less advanced trends here in North Texas - with many service industries retreating to their urban core. If you think about it, it's similar to the pattern for areas where housing tanked. It started at the edged and worked inward. If property prices and rents in desirable urban and inner suburb locations are falling at the same time as demand is also going in the tank, the competitive advantage of the outlet malls starts to erode fast. They were functionally a provider of overflow capacity to the retail system when much of that universe refused to compete on price. Their market shrinks drastically when mainline retail starts to discount heavily.

Sushihorn,

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the competitive advantage of the outlet malls starts to erode fast. They were functionally a provider of overflow capacity to the retail system when much of that universe refused to compete on price. Their market shrinks drastically when mainline retail starts to discount heavily.

I hadn't thought of that angle. I guess the outlet-store model is dead. I wonder if this will impact dollar stores. I think they get a lot of their merchandise from liquidators.

Truthseeker, I'm very much in favor of local economies, but seems to me that much has to change before a corporate-junk economy (which did at least provide employment) can be replaced by a vibrant local economy.

I'd love to see our old downtown feature a greengrocer selling local produce, a bakery, stores selling locally made handcrafted items and canned goods, a store selling local meat and dairy products, and maybe a bunch of tiny eateries featuring a real local cuisine. (We will have to work on the "local cuisine" angle.)

The main factors working against this idyllic picture are taxes, property values, utility bills (with taxes accounting for of lot of that cost), and government regulations.

As Reverseengineer observes, the tax situation requires government reform. Real estate and rental costs will have to decline. Supporting infrastrucure in the manner to which we have become accustomed could be a problem--one that could be solved by letting much of the infrastructure go to hell, while at the same time both reverting to pre-industrial practices and coming up with creative and progressive approaches. Infrastructure, after all, is roads, bridges, water service, sewer service, heat, and electricity.

Getting tax requirements for infrastructure down to where they don't strangle the economy is a BIG hurdle. Regulation that prevents people from selling locally is another big hurdle. Plus I think more people need to be on small farms, or at least small acreages.

On a recent short vacation trip, we passed through a tiny Missouri town that seems to be a working model of this kind of economy--at least, it has taken the model about as far as you can take it, given the constraints. This is Hermann, Missouri. The town has a bunch of local wineries, supplied by local vinyards. Locally produced wines (which are excellent) are sold by retailers throughout Missouri. There's at least one bakery. The town depends a lot on tourism, though.

I could see how the Odessa area could get some excellent local businesses going: small wineries, dairies, and bakeries come to mind.

I was talking to an older local woman recently, who told me that her mother kept their town's general store supplied with eggs. Her mother bought 300 chickens every spring, killed all the roosters in June, and sold the eggs from 150 hens, plus whatever hens she had from the previous year, I presume. I suppose she also sold the roosters, since that seems like quite a surplus.

This kind of thing is now illegal. I know because I had an aunt who operated this same kind of business in the 1950s. She had and egg route--delivering eggs to small town grocers in the surrounding area.

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This kind of thing is now illegal.

There's the rub. The SUSTAINABLE local approaches have been legislated into oblivion, with little notice.


We are exceedingly fortunate to live in an area that largely ignores that kind of nonsense. I get deliveries to my house of fresh mushrooms (exotic varieties included), and get organic eggs and goat's milk from a neighbor. We buy and barter more than 50% of our purchased food from unlicensed local producers.

Ours is not a 'thriving' local economy by any measure---we have one of the highest unemployment rates in the country. But a long, slow slide off the economic cliff has produced a very effective subsistence farming community. And we've got TWO second-hand stores to browse.

Small town's finances often go BOOM when the geniuses in the local government. My friend told me of a small town in VA that had about 2000 people population with avg income around $20k.

Well the geniuses in local GOV decided to build a new water treatment plant to the tune of like $10-20 million. How are they EVER going to pay for that? Are they going to sell water as gold?

Another town that has destroyed it's business base is Blacksburg VA. It hasn't felt the real pain because Virginia Tech keeps it going, but slowly but surely the businesses have been moving 8 miles away to Christiansburg to avoid the BS taxes and "codes".

Can relate. I just moved to Kansas from OK for my job and couldn't believe the things that are taxed here!!!! The roads are nice, better than OK, but I would be willing to drive on ****ty roads for lower taxes. I originally thought that I would live in MO and drive the thirty min to KS, but if I do that I will be taxed twice! How does one defeat something like this?

A small dental lab in my area closed awhile ago. I really wonder how our local dentists and veterinarians are doing. When I went to the eye doctor over the summer, the place was a ghost town. The doctor was out in the waiting area chatting with other employees when I left. There was a huge, ocean going fishing boat parked in the back corner of the parking lot. My hunch is that he moved it there to save marina fees or something.

We have a nice street of stately historic homes in my town. One of these buildings was an upscale dining establishment (lawyers lunch spot). It closed last year but now has a sign saying "Coming soon: Mellow Mushroom Pizza Restaurant"

Someone else opened a vitamin shop all alone in a new strip center. I give it about a 2% chance of success. (terrible area (not close to any major shopping areas), demographics don't support such a store, and horrible ingress/egress for that shopping center).

I saw another plaza with small stores for rent. There was a banner in front of one saying "Only $650 a month rent!" Desperation in commercial here big time.

Also, Save-a-lot food store went belly up here shortly after opening a store (demographics should have been right), and a soccer equipment store in the same plaza closed.

Local veterinarians?

A week or so ago I got a mailer from my vet offering a recession special discount on vaccinations.

I was in a local vitamin shop today. There are offering store brand buy one get the second half off- and I over heard the store employees discussing calling employees and telling them not to come into work.

I'm in Michigan. Things are ugly as you might expect.

Updating this thread: I just heard today that another of our town's restaurants (Morgan's) is closing. This restaurant was in business before I moved here almost ten years ago. On the bright side, the Down Home Cafe is rumored to be extending its hours. They have always served only breakfast and lunch, and now they're planning to stay open for dinner. This is presumably because both Countryside and Morgan's will be gone, so there may be an opportunity to pick up more business.

The Ford dealership--rumored to be closing--looks to still be open.

What kind of disturbs me is the lack of traffic in some of the stores that I've long considered nearly recession-proof.

Feldman's, our local "farm and home" store, decided to close on Sundays for the remainder of the winter. While winter is undoubtedly their slow season (and the weather hasn't helped), weekends have been so busy in years past that I've sometimes had second thoughts about shopping there on a Saturday or Sunday, if I needed anything that required employee assistance. The weekend was NOT a good time to get the chain on your chainsaw replaced, for example.

In a farming area, a farm-and-home store will normally do a decent business even in winter. Animals still have to be fed, and plumbing must be attended to. People are usually buying electric or propane heating units, replacing pumps, indulging in new power tools for indoor projects, and picking up an air compressor (whatever they're for).

In years past, you just expected a long wait in the checkout line at Feldman's. Lately there's been no line at all. Again, this may be due to very bad weather that has just let up.

Even the Family Dollar's business seems slower lately.

There's a stark difference between now and mid-winter two years ago. Then, you could plan to stand in line any day of the week, and it could take a lot of time to get someone to help you load a 50-pound bag of feed, or unlock one of the tool display cases, on Saturday or Sunday.

When you compare the business situation now to ten years ago, the change is even more alarming. I'd be curious to know how much city sales tax receipts are down. The number of businesses in town looks to have dropped dramatically in the past ten years.

I'm on 'the rock' too IronPete. SI is doing just fine. All the good businesses and restaurants are still open and seemingly doing okay. Actually - all of NY is doing okay. But I can sense trouble looming. If .gov ever takes on WS, NYC is going to get SHREDDED. Decimated. And so will the rest of the country. And yeah - it's necessary.

Sharon, I have wanted to take some pictures of the Odessa outlet malls and post on here. I did post some pics of my area here in Lexington awhile back. Free rent sign on some apartments and our closed up GM dealership. The I-70 corridor thru Lafayette co is dying!

Tampa Florida reporting.

There used to be about 120 Car dealerships on Florida Avenue. There is about 3 left now. It used to be a phalanx of cars and salesman. All empty now

Boonedocks, there really isn't much to die along the I-70 corridor through Lafayette--at least not beyond Odessa.

Wish you would post some pics of the Outlet Mall! But I don't think anyone can really appreciate the desolation who didn't see the place ten years ago. There were few vacant stores back then.

I guess it's silly to miss it all, but I used to love taking the girls there when I had a few extra bucks to spend on junk jewelry at Claire's or frivolous items elsewhere. I miss the Kitchen Collection, the store that sold fine china, and the Craft Mall.

Here's the latest scary story: It is rumored that both Feldman's (the farm-and-home store) and McDonald's are closing. I don't care about McDonald's, but I would sorely miss Feldman's. Buying poultry feed would involve quite a drive--and the thought of trying to do plumbing without nearby plumbing fittings is daunting indeed. I've been waiting eagerly for the spring shipment of baby chicks and ducklings and can hardly imagine spring without walking into Feldman's and hearing a bunch of noisy poultry.

Surely this rumor is false! Too many people depend on Feldman's for livestock feed and a million other things.