One of these two is likely to become Fred in a couple days.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/f....

My money is on the smaller one on the left. Big sloppy systems have had trouble consolidating tight circulations this year; this system already has one, so all it has to do is acquire convection and strengthen.

The one on the left (center screen at the link) is flaring now and making a good show of ramping up to TD status despite some high-level shear.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/f....

The surface whirl I though would be Fred is still spinning NE of Puerto Rico; meanwhile, a bigger storm popped off Africa and quickly spun up into a hurricane:

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/....

Both the EMC and NGP long-range models now show a re-formed Fred striking or about to strike the US near the end of the forecast period. The EMC is troubling, as it shows Fred heading into the Gulf of Mexico from the east through the Florida Strait.

Fred has spent over a week trudging across the Atlantic as an exposed swirl of low clouds. It is now east of the Bahamas and re-acquiring convection:

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/....

Notice the huge front dropping laterally off the northeast coast. This will build high-pressure north of the system, and drive it westward onshore in several more days.

Extremely boring hurricane season for meteorologists such as myself. But to most people, that's certainly a good thing. Hopefully the slow hurricane season during this El Nino event will transpire into a harsh winter for the Eastern US.

I'm loving it Brushyourteeth, the hurricane in DC has my focus and I don't have to pack up for a hurricane run. Of course, the season has another month or two yet.