When do you think CRE prices in the U.S. will hit bottom? [Polls] - MarketTicker Forums


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User Info	When do you think CRE prices in the U.S. will hit bottom? in forum [Polls]
Hungrybear Posts: 535 Incept: 2007-07-22	Get your crystal balls out and tell us what you see.. Last modified: 2009-10-08 16:48:53 by hungrybear Reason: figured it out 2009-10-08 16:44:34 Permalink
Hungrybear Posts: 535 Incept: 2007-07-22	Bottom is in voters, explain your reasoning please. Important leading indicator is negative... http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=2.... Commercial-Mortgage Defaults Jump Sevenfold, Credit Suisse Says Share \| Email \| Print \| A A A By Sarah Mulholland Oct. 12 (Bloomberg) -- The volume of delinquent commercial mortgages jumped sevenfold last month as borrowers who got loans with lax terms fail to make debt payments amid sinking real estate values, according to Credit Suisse Group AG. In September, installments on $22.4 billion of mortgages were at least 60 days late, up from $3.2 billion a year earlier, Credit Suisse analysts wrote in a report. The delinquency rate rose 33 basis points to 3.34 percent, according to the New York- based analysts led by Gail Lee. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point. Commercial-property owners are struggling to repay debt as data from Moody’s Investors Service show prices have plummeted 38.7 percent from October 2007 peaks. Defaults on shopping malls, skyscrapers and hotel loans are increasing as borrowers that took out mortgages expecting rents and occupancies to rise miss payments, according to the analysts. “As the credit crunch intensified over the past year, the poor underwriting on recent vintage loans has resulted in early defaults,” the Credit Suisse analysts said. 2009-10-14 23:18:17 Permalink
Coondog Posts: 1582 Incept: 2008-01-21 MI	Residential in 2011 and CRE a year later. ---------- "The purpose of all political action should be to promote liberty. We should always maintain the conviction that free people will be able to take care of all of their needs. When government gets involved, it can do things with a lot of good intentions, but it cannot do so without undermining our liberties." - Ron Paul 2009-10-15 00:59:47 Permalink
Hungrybear Posts: 535 Incept: 2007-07-22	Here is a similar survey from loopnet. However most (46%) of the respondents are (the evr optimistic) brokers Has already bottomed 54 9% 2 Q4 2009 (current quarter) 41 7% 3 Q1 2010 70 12% 4 Q2 2010 99 17% 5 Q3 2010 86 14% 6 Q4 2010 79 13% 7 Q1 2011 49 8% 8 Q2 2011 27 5% 9 Q3 2011 22 4% 10 Q4 2011 22 4% 11 2012 or later 45 8% Total 594 100% 2009-10-15 16:09:41 Permalink