Hendrek:

Quote:

You can argue when that will be, but if you accept the premise that the resource (oil) is not available in INFINITE supply or at INFINITE re-supply rates (a limit to extraction must eventually be approached), then a peak will occur sometime as a mathematical fact.

So based onthis I am to ASSUME that demand is going to remain an ever increasing number? We will never find a suitable replacement for oil? Again.....using assumptions to argue a fact does not work in my book. You can quote as many SCIENTISTS as you want and talk about curves and functions all you want. I just can't stand someone saying something is a fact...then I say...well what if this happens and they come back and say, then we do the math over. THAT IS NOT MATH, but theory. Every day we are making advancements in science.....Every now and then we find new sources of oil and they are forced to push out PEAK oil a little further. Give me an absolute answer....and absolute day when we run out of oil and I will hold you to it. Otherwise, admit it. We really don't know when or IF we will run out of oil. My guess.......we find another source of energy...long before we run out of the stuff. We might not be completely weened off the stuff, but as demand decreases over that time so will the belief that we are going to run out.

I would like to hold a poll. How many people who believe in the science (and math) of Peak Oil also believe int he science (and math) of Global Warming. Just about every one I personally know who believes in peak oil also believes in global warming. Now, I know almost no one on the TF boards on a personal level so this would be a good study. Let the poll begin.

I disagree, the recently discovered gas in the US and trillions of cubic feet of gas discovered in Canada should last 100 years plus.
The US could easily change all its power stations to run on CLEAN natural gas, and cars could be be changed over to run on gas for a small cost

Jubber...thats exactly my point. as log as OTHER sources are used or found...the demand for oil will decrease. I fthe demand for oil decerases we again have to put way out the date of reckoning for PEAK oil BS.

Jubber, how long would it take to change cars over to natural gas and get the infrastructure up and running?

Buses and some city vehicles in Tahoe have been running on natural gas for years.
Not sure about the cost but the buses don't stink near as much as diesel.

Hmmm. People seem to be "fact based" today so let's see.

"trillions of CFT nat gas", let's say 3 trillion @ 5480 cft/barrel oil equivalent = 547 million barrels, or about 7 days of global oil usage. Wow, I feel better now.

"The US could easily change all its power stations to run on CLEAN natural gas, and cars could be be changed over to run on gas for a small cost"

Hmmm, how many gas station in the US to be converted? How about the new pipelines and distribution systems all over the country. And how cheap to convert a car to NG. Once again, standing in the way folks.

According to an earlier post "The US burns through 20.8 Million barrels per day."
547/21=26.
So we're going to convert all the gas stations in the US to NG for a 26 day supply?

Some of you just don't get the scale of the problem.

Quote:

So based onthis I am to ASSUME that demand is going to remain an ever increasing number? We will never find a suitable replacement for oil? Again.....using assumptions to argue a fact does not work in my book. You can quote as many SCIENTISTS as you want and talk about curves and functions all you want. I just can't stand someone saying something is a fact...then I say...well what if this happens and they come back and say, then we do the math over. THAT IS NOT MATH, but theory. Every day we are making advancements in science.....Every now and then we find new sources of oil and they are forced to push out PEAK oil a little further. Give me an absolute answer....and absolute day when we run out of oil and I will hold you to it. Otherwise, admit it. We really don't know when or IF we will run out of oil. My guess.......we find another source of energy...long before we run out of the stuff. We might not be completely weened off the stuff, but as demand decreases over that time so will the belief that we are going to run out.

I would like to hold a poll. How many people who believe in the science (and math) of Peak Oil also believe int he science (and math) of Global Warming. Just about every one I personally know who believes in peak oil also believes in global warming. Now, I know almost no one on the TF boards on a personal level so this would be a good study. Let the poll begin.

Well, since the thread is about oil, I suppose this isn't drifting too far...

Step one: peak oil is not about running out of oil. It's a silly notion to say otherwise.

I will answer your question on whether we will ever run out of oil by saying NO, we won't. There will remain in the ground some oil no matter how much we want to get at it. There is an ultimately recoverable amount in any oil well that is less than the total amount in the well. There will always be oil in the ground... not to mention the current production of new oil through the normal very long process.

You are right that it is often the unstated assumption that demand for oil will always go up, and this is not necessarily true. Demand for energy may always go up (so long as population continues to go up, and an overall increase in per capita energy use among the affluent minority of the planet continues to go up), but that need not be in the form of oil necessarily. This in no way detracts from the notion of a physical and mathematical peak in oil extraction rates, though. Peak oil is just what the phrase sounds like; the social and economic ramifications posited by folks are many, and secondary to the physical concept of the peak in extraction rates.

Quote:

It is not simple math...it is theoretical math. Just like global warming. WITHOUT EVERY VARIABLE (inputs and outputs)......there ARE NO ANSWERS...only assumptions.

I have a $10 trillion diamond mine under my backyard. Since no one has drilled my backyard all the down to the Earth's core, it's impossible to prove that my diamond mine doesn't exist. All claims that it doesn't exist are just theory, not facts. I therefore claim that I'm the richest person on Earth, and I'm going to go buy some countries for fun.

Quote:

According to an earlier post "The US burns through 20.8 Million barrels per day."
547/21=26.
So we're going to convert all the gas stations in the US to NG for a 26 day supply?

Some of you just don't get the scale of the problem.

Exactly. Anyone who has read anything regarding PO, should also know that peak gas has been suggested to be no more than a decade or two down the road — particularly if the oil supply deficit is swung over to gas.

There is also talk of peak coal - and this is mainly a function of the infrastructure required to mine the stuff to meet increasing demand.

Remember, we're talking about production rates here, not the absolute in-place resource. It's about pressure on the supply/demand equation, and the resulting impact on standard of living.

I'm impressed that folks here can fully understand peak debt, and other ponzi schemes, but go into complete denial over this one.

>> Prior results are no guarantee of future performance.

yet the opposition of the PO advocates assume EXACTLY the same thing (i.e. we have always found more oil, we will continue to find more oil)

All of this is interesting.... BUT how to make money?

One thing we all agree on is Wall Street is a Ponzi scheme,

SO If you invest in Oil Companies, you would expect to make money, as they have a product they can charge $ for, and rack up profits?????

OR

Is Peak Oil not a good investment? why buy an Oil company who's product is diminishing year after year? Where is the growth?

All im saying is Peak Oil "dont" mean squat for making money on a thesis.

Wall Street will push the stocks of the companies involved what ever direction they want to.

Just my two cents....

Quote:

All im saying is Peak Oil "dont" mean squat for making money on a thesis.

The problem is one of timing. A slowing economy, deflation in commodities looks bad for oil. Ben printing or a supply disruption looks good.

But, cheep oil now would guarantee really expensive oil later, just not sure how much later.

Quote:

According to an earlier post "The US burns through 20.8 Million barrels per day."
547/21=26.
So we're going to convert all the gas stations in the US to NG for a 26 day supply?

Have to say I'm very surprised at that, from everything else I've seen there is HUGE NG supply out there but pretty scant demand. It is a rather simple conversion to get a petroleum engine running on liquid natural gas, I've seen lots of cars in Europe switched over to it and they run just as well, seen a handful of NG filling stations there too.

I've spent the better part of 5 years now investigating, reading, researching and becoming an expert on energy issues. Especially with regard to oil production.

I do not believe in anthropogenic Global warming.

I do believe we are very near if not past the peaking of world oil production.

The only way that we do not have a peak is to very rapidly replace the DECLINING NON OPEC oil production(and soon to be declining OPEC) with some as yet UNDISCOVERED LARGE QUANTITIES of oil. Is this possible?

Yes.

Is it probable?

No.

That answer comes from the simple math of discovery. We are not finding enough and haven't been for decades. Each year we fail to increase the odds that we find those much needed Saudi Arabia's.

At some point in the very near future it will become common knowledge that we cannot increase global oil production. After that comes the knowledge that production will decline. It will decline forever based on the finite nature of oil as a resource.

Timing is unknown, but after watching this closely for some time it does APPEAR we may be nearing these revelations. The expertise exists to make good assumptions about our present plateau and the proximity of decline.

I'll tend towards the idea that Peak Oil is for all intensive purposes now. I will invest accordingly and plan on several crude price spikes over the next several years as we destroy demand due to the loss in production and high prices. This amidst the backdrop of ever decreasing discoveries and aging fields rapidly declining.

Economic growth in this environment will come only on the back of some new energy source to provide that growth. Until then the longer we go continuing BAU and denying that oil is finite and WILL deplete at a rate which outpaces global recession, the price of crude will rise.

Plan accordingly.

Denial and fear are not strategies for investing. Education and knowledge are.

Denial and fear are not strategies for investing. Education and knowledge are.

Agree.

I believe in Peak "Cheap" Oil, But I also believe the earth is a living planet continually renewing resources.... Oil basins, are the same as zits on a teenagers face.

The Earth is over 72% water, We have only scratched the surface of Oil available.

MY POINT IS THIS..... It doesnt matter. it will be decided by Wall Street. Wall Street decided WebVan was worth $1000.00 a share, They decided Oil should be 147.00 one month, and 6 months later, 35.00.

Investing is a ponzi scheme. Trade the market to make money. You may be right, and Oil runs out in the next decade, so how valuable will an oil company without a product be?

Its all a game....

Curb,
I'm a gw skeptic but believe that cheap oil is disappearing quickly and will not be easily replaced.

I also believe that you are over matched on this thread.

It doesnt matter,,,, SPIN matters.....

Whats the value of ****tybank today? NEGATIVE ZERO! Its ****ing insolvent.... BUT can you double or quadruple your money buying the stock.... quite possibly.


Whats the value of an Oil company with 13 billion in reserves, and 13 billion shares outstanding?


Whatever Wall Street Decides.... it could be a Nickel, or it could be 2,000.00 a share... The fundamentals dont me ****.

If you don't believe the supply of oil is infinite then you are a peaker.

NS Number : 4643M
Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd
25 May 2010




25 May 2010

Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd.
("GKP", "Gulf Keystone" or "the Company")


Fully Subscribed $165 million Capital Raising and
Kurdistan Drilling Campaign Update

Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd. (AIM: GKP; ADR: GFKSY), the independent oil and gas
exploration company, announces that it has today completed a fully subscribed
placing (the "Placing") of 152,300,000 new common shares of $0.01 (the "Placing
Shares") at a placing price of 75p per share (the "Placing Price"), raising
gross proceeds of approximately $165 million (GBP114.2 million). These shares
were placed by Mirabaud Securities, Renaissance Capital, Fox-Davies Capital
Limited and Madison Williams and Company with existing and new institutional
shareholders. The net proceeds will be used to progress the remainder of its
2010 and early 2011 work programmes after receiving positive results from the
early stages of its drilling campaigns in Kurdistan.
Gulf Keystone also today provides an update for its drilling campaign in the
Kurdistan Region of Iraq ("Kurdistan").
Use of Proceeds
The proceeds raised will be used primarily to progress the three Shaikan
appraisal wells, the Shaikan-1 extended well test and production facilities,
Sheikh Adi exploration well and the acquisition of further 3D seismic data over
Shaikan and Sheikh Adi licences. The funds raised will also be used for any
future increase in GKP's interests in Kurdistan assets.
Admission of New Shares
Application has been made for the Placing Shares to be admitted to trading on
AIM with dealing expected to commence on 28 May 2010.
Following the Placing there will be 672,185,122 common shares of $0.01 in issue.

Drilling campaign update

Seismic survey progress

On 20 April 2010, GKP's seismic contractor, Terraseis commenced acquisition of
the 530 km2 3D seismic survey over the Shaikan structure. To date, fourteen per
cent of the acquisition has been conducted, with completion expected by
September 2010.

The survey follows on from the 2D seismic programme on Shaikan in 2008 and will
be extended to cover the Sheik Adi block in the event of encouraging early
results on the exploration well at Sheikh Adi.

Shaikan-1 well work over (SH-1B), EWT and Temporary Facilities

A work-over rig has been contracted from Arar Petrol Ve Gaz Arama Uretim
Pazarlama and is scheduled to arrive at SH-1B at the beginning of June, to
enable short term production testing of several previously tested Jurassic
targets (DST zones 2 and 3) using an electric submersible pump.

Immediately following on from this, an extended well test will be performed in
the initial upper Jurassic discovery zone in Shaikan-1 (DST #1). As previously
announced, current evaluated data indicates the zone to be capable of a
flow-rate of approximately 8,000 to 10,000 bopd. Hydrocarbon flows will be
received into a temporary production facility which is currently under
construction. The first shipment of equipment for this facility is expected to
leave from Canada in May 2010 with production expected to commence in August
2010.

Shaikan-2 appraisal well (SH-2)

SH-2 will be the first appraisal well drilled on the Shaikan structure, and will
be used to evaluate the Cretaceous, Jurassic and all zones in the Triassic
through to the Permian, in which total oil in place volumes of 1.9 (P90) to 7.4
(P10) billion barrels, with a mean value of 4.2 billion barrels, were
discovered.

The well location 9km to the east of SH-1 has been constructed and is awaiting
the return of the WDI rig-842 from the Akri-Bijeel Block, expected towards the
end of May 2010.

Shaikan-4 appraisal well (SH-4)

SH-4 will be the second appraisal well drilled in the Shaikan structure and will
appraise all zones down to and including the upper Triassic, with an option to
go to the Permian.

The well location 6km to the west of SH-1 is being constructed and the well will
be spudded in Q4 2010.

Shaikan-3 appraisal well (SH-3)

The appraisal well at SH-3, targeting the shallow Cretaceous zone, will be
located near Shaikan-1. It will be drilled using the rig currently operating at
SH-1B immediately following completion of the SH-1B work-over, and should spud
in Q3 2010.

Sheikh Adi-1 exploration well (SA-1)

Construction has been completed on the well location of SA-1, the first
exploration well in the Sheikh Adi block. The well will be drilled using the
Atlantic Onshore Services rig, Discoverer-1, which is currently expected to
arrive during July.

SA-1 will explore all zones down to and including the upper Permian and is on
schedule to spud in the third quarter of 2010.

Bijeel-1 Exploration well

The Bijeel-1 exploration well in the MOL operated Akri Bijeel block is very near
final TD and is still conducting operations to test and evaluate recent drilling
results.

Todd Kozel, Executive Chairman and CEO of Gulf Keystone, commented:
"The sums raised secure our development and appraisal program across Gulf
Keystone's assets in Kurdistan for the coming months. The results of the early
stages of GKP's 2010 work programme have been very positive and we do not want
to lose this momentum. We have already made two discoveries and still have two
blocks and a number of appraisal wells to drill. While we still have a lot of
work ahead of us, we are very excited about our prospects."



END

The only folks who don't get PO are the ones who haven't done the homework.

One need only look at this piece of the puzzle to know, with a good degree of certainty, that we wont recover 18BBl's of oil from this field...

Quote:

* The range of oil in-place for the Shaikan structure has been increased to a gross 1.9 (P90) to 7.4 (P10) billion barrels of oil, with a mean of 4.2 billion barrels of oil in place.

For those unfamiliar with how this game gets played, these numbers are for the investors. The "18bbbl" headline is bogus, they usually are. It's the total amount recoverable only in a perfect world. Guess what? We don't live in one.

Understanding Probable reserves, Proven reserves, Oil in place, and Ultimately recoverable reserves is important to reading these discovery reports. They are almost ALWAYS sensationalized these days because of the high costs involved and the need to lure the investment money to develop them.

Anyone who thinks we go back to 25$/bbl oil does not understand where the majority of light sweet crude is going to come from in the future.

Bid rumours at GKP

latest news, notice the use of the word GIANT.




Kurdistan Operational Update



TIDMGKP

RNS Number : 5079Q
Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd
04 August 2010

?
Not for release, publication or distribution in or into the United States or
jurisdictions other than the United Kingdom and Bermuda where to do so would
constitute a contravention of the relevant laws of such jurisdiction.


4 August 2010


Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd. (AIM: GKP)
("Gulf Keystone" or "the Company")

Kurdistan Operational Update:
Commencement of Drilling Operations on the Sheikh Adi-1 Exploration Well

Gulf Keystone announces the commencement of drilling operations on its Sheikh
Adi-1 exploration well effective August 4, 2010. This is the first exploration
well to be drilled on the Sheikh Adi Block immediately to the west of the
Company's Shaikan Block, site of last year's discovery of the giant Shaikan oil
field. The Company has an 80 percent working interest in the Block and is
carrying the Kurdistan Regional Government's 20 percent working interest.

The well design for Sheikh Adi-1 has been modified to drill through the
geopressured sections of the Triassic. This high pressure interval forced the
cessation of drilling on Shaikan-1, at the point when the well experienced the
inflow of significant volumes of oil and gas from this section of the Triassic.
The Sheikh Adi-1 is designed to drill through the Cretaceous, Jurassic and the
Triassic age rocks, to a planned total depth, depending on well results, of
3,850 meters. Drilling is expected to take 6 months. The Company's estimated
oil-in-place resource potential for the Sheikh Adi structure is in excess of one
billion barrels.

more news! notice "over 20,000 bopd from just a fraction of the total prospective interval"



Jurassic Zone Testing on the SH -1 Discovery Well



TIDMGKP

RNS Number : 5555Q
Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd
05 August 2010

?
Not for release, publication or distribution in or into the United States or
jurisdictions other than the United Kingdom and Bermuda where to do so would
constitute a contravention of the relevant laws of such jurisdiction.


5 August 2010


Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd. (AIM: GKP)
("Gulf Keystone" or "the Company")

Jurassic Zone Testing on the Shaikan-1 Discovery Well

Gulf Keystone announces the results of further testing of the Butmah (1783m to
1814m) section of the Jurassic on its Shaikan-1 discovery well. Final production
rates during this week's re-test were measured at 4650 bopd with an API gravity
of 17.68 degrees and a gas oil ratio of 34 standard cubic feet per barrel of oil
at a flowing wellhead pressure of 295 psi. This is in line with the previously
estimated rate.

The Mus (1627m to 1667m) section of the Jurassic will be re-tested next,
followed by the Sargelu (1450m to 1510m), which will then also be configured for
long term production testing.

John Gerstenlauer, Chief Operating Officer for Gulf Keystone said "I am
encouraged by this verification of the flow capacity of the Butmah formation.
This test represents another step in our efforts to confirm and define the
magnitude of the Shaikan discovery. The well has now demonstrated an aggregate
flow capacity of over 20,000 bopd from just a fraction of the total prospective
interval. I look forward to further testing and also to commercial oil sales
from the long term test of the Sargelu, commencing later this year."