Danielle's center looks like crap this morning, probably as a result of an underway eyewall replacement cycle to a larger eye. The entire storm is about four times as big as it was yesterday at the same time.

Category 2, then weakened to Category 1, expected to rebuild.

Quote:

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DANIELLE IS NOW A CATEGORY ONE
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ALTHOUGH
DANIELLE HAS WEAKENED...RE-STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIA....

Uhhh, we have a potential problem here.

Take a look at NOGAPS.

http://www.bvipirate.com/NOGAPS.phtml

Starting to see even more of a Westward track lining up.

still gonna hook...relax

The GFS is starting to shift West as well. Still early to tell, though.

Randy, I am relaxed. Either way I'm getting some surf out of this baby.

It's gonna be a FISH, but cool to look at...
Maybe Bringing nice swells to the East Coast...
check out the 12 hour loop.....From GOES-15
cool...


http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/wp-....

Lets not write it off just yet. I think people are forgetting that she should have turned NE by now, but she hasn't. The models are slowly starting to trend West to accommodate the more Westward movement she has made.

Danielle is going to be a bitch to forecast.

But I'll gladly just take the 6+ head high sets rolling into shore with a clean break. That's good enough for me.

Quote:

still gonna hook...relax

That's what everybody said about Ike. For a week.

-- For a storm initially expected to go visit Iceland, he sure did a number on Texas.

Mark it down Bezzle. Won't ouch the US.

One of the only times I'll agree with the Bez.

Here's the latest Spaghetti plot. That's quite a change in the GFS since 5pm. Notice how there's a little more consistency between a couple models.

Every time I see a storm with projections anything similar to that, I can't help but think about NYC.

Quote:

Every time I see a storm with projections anything similar to that, I can't help but think about NYC.

imagine what a 20 foot tidal surge would do to manhatten and long island? utter devastation imho

ps is that another one right behind it?

look way to the right

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/f....

Avian - meet Earl!

Danielle 18Z HWRF run. Maritimes are going to get wet.

What I say. Not even close.

East Coast Surf Report...
http://swellwatch.wetsand.com/#place=35.....

Brush,(or anyone) Post some picks of your local spot if it's firing

Quote:

Weekly Regional Outlook:

New England:
Today (Wednesday the 25th) east wind swell continues to bring larger stormy surf to the coast. Size should drop down quick on Thursday as winds shift; there could be some cleaner chest high surf if the winds can clean it up enough. Friday looks small to flat, but on Saturday head high to overhead+ groundswell shows up from the SE around 135 to 145 degrees. Periods should be around 14 seconds increasing in size through next Tuesday. So far estimated wave heights are in the DOH range for stand out breaks Monday and Tuesday with periods around 14 seconds. This might be a bit of a stretch for most places, and at many exposed locations there will probably be strong rip currents and close out sets. More sheltered locations will see cleaner surf with less size. The swell should start to back off after the peak on Tuesday. Stay tuned.

Northeast (Delmarva, New Jersey, New York):
Today (Wednesday the 25th) winds through the region have started to ease up showing some knee to chest high lines out there slowly backing down through the day. There could be some small leftovers through the end of the week, but most likely conditions will go pretty flat Thursday and Friday. Sunday the groundswell from Hurricane Danielle is due to hit, with forerunners around 15 to 16 seconds late Friday night, picking up size into the chest to head high range from 130 to 135 degrees Saturday. The swell is expected to continue increasing through Tuesday when it could peak in the range of overhead to several feet overhead, and even DOH at stand out breaks. I’m still a little skeptical on the size of this thing, but with 15-second periods you can bet there will be some energy behind it. Swell size should back down through the end of next week. Stay tuned.

Southern States (Florida, Georgia, SC, NC):
Today (Wednesday the 25th) there isn’t much out there as SW winds are keeping most swell off the coast. Small ankle to knee high surf should be the norm through the rest of the workweek. The 28th should start to see a new groundswell showing up, with wave heights possibly ranging from chest high to overhead+ at stand out breaks. Periods should be between 14 and 15 seconds from 90 to 120 degrees, meaning a lot of energy with this one. A peak is due Monday and Tuesday before backing off through the rest of next week. Maximum surf heights are currently calculated in the range of overhead+ to DOH at stand out breaks Monday and Tuesday. It looks like the biggest problem could be the accompanying winds from the NE starting Sunday and lasting through mid next week. Stay tuned for more updates.

Danielle may affect the Titanic expedition in the North Atlantic.

The Weather Channel