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User Info 2010: Danielle in forum [RagingEarth]
Zarathustra
Posts: 5937
Incept: 2009-04-29
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Funkytown
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"And in knowing that you know nothing, that makes you the smartest of all." - Socrates
Drench
Posts: 28631
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Green
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Tonight's forecast: Dark!
Drench
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Green
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Quote:
Governor Bobby Jindal declared a state of emergency for Louisiana after a tropical depression in the Gulf of Mexico was forecast to strengthen into a bigger storm and slam into the southern state tomorrow.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-08-11....
Zarathustra
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Funkytown
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Drench,

It looks like the models are consolidating around the MS/AL border...

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"And in knowing that you know nothing, that makes you the smartest of all." - Socrates
Drench
Posts: 28631
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Green
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Yeah, I expect the other governors to follow soon.
Drench
Posts: 28631
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Green
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Or not.
Quote:
...DEPRESSION DISSIPATES...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...
...POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE GULF COAST REMAINS...
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIA....
Fidgit
Posts: 17784
Incept: 2008-02-18
Green
Tax Unit #1,384,923,781
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Gettin RAIN, baby!! smiley

Needed it something fierce - Thanks Danielle!! ;)
Woeisme
Posts: 250
Incept: 2007-12-12
Green
Newport Beach, Cali
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And it's back... remnants of TD5 moving south, back over the gulf. 30% chance of re(?)development. (2pm edt.)

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo/gtwo_atl_su....

Quote:
...THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FIVE...IS LOCATED OVER SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA. THIS SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT AND IT COULD EMERGE OVER THE GULF WATERS BY EARLY
MONDAY...WHERE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME
DEVELOPMENT.

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...I am a man of unclean lips, and I live among a people of unclean lips, and my eyes have seen the King, the LORD Almighty.

Zarathustra
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Incept: 2009-04-29
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Funkytown
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Woe,

We're really starting to see some rain and lightning here over the last four hours or so. It looks like it will pass by us again soon...

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"And in knowing that you know nothing, that makes you the smartest of all." - Socrates
Drench
Posts: 28631
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Green
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Quote:
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FIVE...IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA. THIS
SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 10 MPH...AND SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN
SOUTHWESTWARD AND RE-EMERGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING WHERE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
CONDUCIVE FOR POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN BRIEF SQUALLS ALONG THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml
Chellie
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Cleveland
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Remnant TD5 is vertically stacked, under a massive anticyclone, and is about to enter into bathtub-warm Gulf waters under no shear and with very little, if any, dry air to contend with.

I'm not saying hurricane, but a solid TS isn't out of the question here. It's been over land for 4 days and has held together pretty well. Weird storm. Fascinating, but weird.


The next week or 10 days are shaping up to be fairly active on the tropical front. Lace up yer rainboots.

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"If you want a vision of the future, imagine a boot stamping on a human face - forever."
Bezzle
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August TDs frequently hold together over land.

Some of them develop over land.

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El Sock-Puppeto exposed and killed by Tickerguy
Bezzle
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El Sock-Puppeto exposed and killed by Tickerguy
Zarathustra
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Funkytown
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Bez,

Where is this? Does it have the potential to make it to the Gulf?

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"And in knowing that you know nothing, that makes you the smartest of all." - Socrates
Woeisme
Posts: 250
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Green
Newport Beach, Cali
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Quick questions.
Is there a model that is more accurate/reliable than the others?
How do you guys post those large images?

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...I am a man of unclean lips, and I live among a people of unclean lips, and my eyes have seen the King, the LORD Almighty.

Drench
Posts: 28631
Incept: 2009-11-10
Green
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Quote:
How do you guys post those large images?

IMG then the web address for it all in square brackets.
It's in that Limited HTML info below the reply button.

Genesis
Posts: 130679
Incept: 2007-06-26
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That thing isn't going to come anywhere near the US.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
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What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Bezzle
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Don't be too sure of that. August Bermuda highs can be very strong, and if a hurricane gets trapped under them, it'll be shot due west or even southwest. (This happened to Andrew, Katrina and Ike.)




Large hurricanes can also generate enough outflow to amplify nearby highs and "fill in" troughs (which would otherwise recurve them early).

Bezzle prediction: today's NW movement of the exposed center was a feint (as the center simply moved toward the larger mean axis of rotation), and movement will become almost due west once an eye has formed. A large Saharan layer is rampaging of the African coast, and will barge Danielle ahead of it, then trap the storm under it as the SAL merges with the Bermuda High later in the week. Danielle will pass by the Virgin Islands much closer than projected now, and feature a stubborn-to-turn WNW long-track typical of expansive, powerful, earlier-season Cape Verde systems. E.g., Isabel, Georges, Allen.

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El Sock-Puppeto exposed and killed by Tickerguy

Chellie
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Cleveland
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TS Danielle has arrived.

She's more than 5 days away from any potential threat to land. *If* she's a threat to CONUS, looks like she'd be an East Coast storm.



TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
500 PM AST SUN AUG 22 2010

...DEPRESSION BECOMES FOURTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON...

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"If you want a vision of the future, imagine a boot stamping on a human face - forever."
Bezzle
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El Sock-Puppeto exposed and killed by Tickerguy
Bezzle
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Radial outflow now; Danielle is intensifying very rapidly, and may feature an eye on morning visible.
Inline

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El Sock-Puppeto exposed and killed by Tickerguy
Chellie
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Cleveland
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She's started to pop out an eye feature this morning. Beautiful storm already. Wouldn't be surprised to see her become a hurricane this evening.

We've also got a potential Earl behind her that just came off the African coast. That might need its own thread soon.

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"If you want a vision of the future, imagine a boot stamping on a human face - forever."
Bezzle
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I think she's a hurricane right, with a cirrus-obscured eye already present.

She's actually over the coldest water right now along the entire projected path (to say nothing of left of that path), and nevertheless has such intense convection that cloud tops are an incredible -90C (a tropical CB generally needs to exceed 80,000ft for that).

Danielle is going to be a very impressive and photogenic hurricane by Wednesday.

She might even go annular, like Isabel.
Inline

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El Sock-Puppeto exposed and killed by Tickerguy
Chellie
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Cleveland
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And there she is, Hurricane Danielle.



HURRICANE DANIELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
500 PM AST MON AUG 23 2010

...DANIELLE BECOMES A HURRICANE...THE SECOND OF THE ATLANTIC
SEASON...

LOCATION...15.4N 41.5W
ABOUT 1320 MI...2120 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES

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"If you want a vision of the future, imagine a boot stamping on a human face - forever."
Crossthread
Posts: 4539
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Green
Wilmington, NC
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westward Ho! She goes!.......


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