Potential "leading-trailing" couplet of storms in the central Atlantic as we head into the last week of August, wherein Earl will form and trail along behind Danielle, taking much the same path. If this happens, the pair of storms will amplify the strength of the Atlandic ridge they'll be moving under, and maintain a consistent WNW heading. If to-be-named Earl falls too far behind, the ridge will extend between them, and Earl would be shunted north.

This image autoupdates.

Quote:

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OFF THE
AFRICAN COAST IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE...AND IT COULD BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml

2am TWO:

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG TROPICAL
WAVE...IS LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE
SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT
THIS SYSTEM IS WELL ORGANIZED...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION
COULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE LOW MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 MPH.
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS
AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND INTERESTS IN THOSE ISLANDS
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.


Fantasy Track....

The ooz GFDL depicts Danielle recurving while Earl appears to get left behind and trapped south of the ridge that builds in behind the lifting-out Danielle. If that materialized, Earl would be driven west toward the US.

Looks like we'll have TD7 upgraded to TS Earl at the 5pm update.

Train's a-rollin'.

Threat cone. It'll be interesting to see what the next model cycle brings.

It's gotta shoot the slot before I get impressed, and I don't like the synoptic environment for that.

We'll see. Give it a few days.

Agree with ya Gen. If it trends toward the southern boundary of the cone (through the Leewards), no way in hell will that weakness lift it north.

18Z HWRF run.

In a major track shift, the 12Z GFS now targets the east coast with a major hurricane:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cg....

Can we send that ****er right up Wall Street?

A big hurricane hitting NYC (especially one with a big storm surge) is something I wouldn't even wish on wall street.

Certainly not because of the bankers, but because of all the "little people" who wouldn't be able to get out of the way in time.

Would give the sewers subways a good washing though. :P

Quote:

Can we send that ****er right up Wall Street?

I was hoping for DC myself.

5-10 split?

Quote:

Avian - meet Earl!

lol

Earl = N.C. barrier islands....

tis tracking a little further west each model run...

Earl is a hurricane.

FoxNews.com Breaking

Not liking the track of this one. East coast, keep an eye on the weather reports this week.

Please God, send this ****er either:

1. Right up the Potomac

or

2. Right up Wall Street.

And make it a Cat5, just for good measure.

It should be obvious now that the models have demonstrated themselves to be completely whack on Earl, because he's going to plow right over the VIs and Puerto Rico (while the models are still predicting a now near right-angle 90-degree turn to slingshot him up the east coast).

-- Models do not appreciate the fact that shear becomes steering if the impacted storm remains vertically intact (as Earl has done). I.e., they did not expect that the outflow generated by Hurricane Danial, which was previously subjecting Earl to northeasterly shear yesterday, would bodily shove Earl southwest of the forecast position.

-- I have never seen a westbound hurricane strike Puerto Rico and then miss a North American continent impact along a recurve path.

-- The western Atlantic is so warm this year that it supports a theoretical 165kt cat-5 hurricane halfway up the east coast (normally such is confined to the Gulf and Caribbean).

Please? Right up the Potomac?

Gen? If it misses the expected weakness, it could maintain WNW track and end up right in the Gulf (possibly pounding the ever-lovin' **** out of Florida first, Andrew-style).

The magic long-lat point is 65W/20N; if the storm passes southwest of that spot, the odds that it will hit the US increase dramatically. If it hits any island of the Bahamas, the odds that it will get trapped under the high and slung west into the Gulf increase dramatically.

I'm actually contemplating the possibility of it impacting the Dominican Republic, because this projected lifting weakness does not seem to be materializing, and Danielle's outflow reach is very long -- this keeps Earl moving low and fast.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/f....

Proto-Fiona (97L) is also tracking west south of forecast, and early morning visible loops show its center reforming even farther south -- suggesting an eventual Caribbean system.

The 2906Z GFDL now predicts Earl to be a 140kt (160mph) cat-5 at 54hrs from incept.