Quote:

The trough out West is starting to become negatively tilted,
meaning that the height field has an axis that looks like a
negative slope. And if so, then most likely Earl will be
dragged closer to the coast instead of shooting out to sea.
Not good news.

That has been the wild card all along.

That's why even the experts could not accurately predict the track.



~

The leading edge of the front is just passing me here in Texas, and the cooler air won't filter in for another 24 hours or so - very slow mover, and even though the axis slants to the NE from where I am, I just can't see how the front's going to make it to the coast in time to push Earl back to the right.

That's my highly scientific take on the situation!

And we are STILL heading Northwest with Westward wobbles.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flas....

Quote:

That has been the wild card all along.

That's why even the experts could not accurately predict the track.

Indeed. The beauty of Mother Nature. I think it's fantastic. If people trust on-air weather gurus who don't even have a background in meteorology and do not heed issued warnings, then they deserve what they get.

Quote:
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
945mb (Surface) 40° (from the NE) 107 knots (123 mph)
943mb 40° (from the NE) 110 knots (127 mph)
939mb 45° (from the NE) 107 knots (123 mph)
936mb 40° (from the NE) 122 knots (140 mph)
932mb 45° (from the NE) 127 knots (146 mph)
929mb 50° (from the NE) 142 knots (163 mph)
926mb 50° (from the NE) 147 knots (169 mph)
916mb 55° (from the NE) 140 knots (161 mph)
907mb 60° (from the ENE) 142 knots (163 mph)
895mb 60° (from the ENE) 173 knots (199 mph)
892mb 65° (from the ENE) 162 knots (186 mph)
886mb 70° (from the ENE) 153 knots (176 mph)
881mb 75° (from the ENE) 153 knots (176 mph)
878mb 80° (from the E) 157 knots (181 mph)
874mb 75° (from the ENE) 145 knots (167 mph)
871mb 75° (from the ENE) 148 knots (170 mph)
868mb 75° (from the ENE) 144 knots (166 mph)
860mb 75° (from the ENE) 153 knots (176 mph)
844mb 80° (from the E) 145 knots (167 mph)
834mb 90° (from the E) 122 knots (140 mph)
819mb 95° (from the E) 141 knots (162 mph)
762mb 110° (from the ESE) 116 knots (133 mph)
740mb 115° (from the ESE) 123 knots (142 mph)



Hory Chit is there a CAT 6 scale rating?
(It's not even in the Gulf stream yet)
Come'on Karl, were know you cheering Up the Potomac!

Hurricane Watch for Parts of New England.

http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.ph....

Quote:

SITUATION OVERVIEW...
HURRICANE EARL IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE AND IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. EARL IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTH
LATE TODAY THEN NORTHEAST FRIDAY TOWARD SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND.
THE LATEST TRACK PROJECTION HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST AND
EARL IS NOW EXPECTED TO TRACK WITHIN 50 MILES OF NANTUCKET FRIDAY
NIGHT.

EARL WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS IT MOVES
OVER COOLER WATERS BUT MAY STILL BE A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE AS IT
MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT.

IT IS TOO EARLY TO PROVIDE EXACT WIND AND SURGE FORECAST VALUES
FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS. A GENERAL CONCERN SHOULD BE FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST EXTENSIVE DAMAGE SOMEWHERE WITHIN SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.

Almost 2am Thursday and still no turn North.

This hurricane must be breaking many records. Stay safe all within the way of this freak of nature.

Tropical Storm force winds out to 230 miles, hurricane-force winds out to 90 miles. And look for those windfields to expand as it gains latitude.

Classic hurricane image.

Central pressure ~ 930mb. Cat 5 territory.

Look at this http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flas.... and click the Trp pts selection - interesting to see not only movement in relation to the forecast track, but off to the right you can see forecast tracks from the previous day, a good indication of how far west NHC has had to adjust.

New Data=895mb 60° (from the ENE) 173 knots (199 mph)= CAT 6? or does a new scale need to be "re-defined"?

Isn't the record central pressure something like 882 or so? I was really surprised to see that 740mb above.

Crossthread, where are you seeing 895? 2am advisory from NHC has 930...

000
WTNT32 KNHC 020556
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 31A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
200 AM EDT THU SEP 02 2010

...CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE EARL MOVING QUICKLY
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.6N 74.4W
ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...930 MB...27.46 INCHES

Foggy Bottom or Bust

May have to change the name to Soggy Bottom... and with that cheesy comment, I'm off to bed.

You folks on the east coast stay safe and get the hell out of there.

Earl moved 332 degrees at 18 kt. That's 2-3 kt faster than recent GFDL runs have forecast for that timeframe. Any global model which is slower than the 12z run should be treated with skepticism.
BUT>>>>>>Still 140 mph with the 2 am advisory, although the pressure dropped 2 millibars to 930.

Guys, the 895mb reading wasn't at the surface, it was measured a few hundred feet up by the dropped radiosonde. Meteorologists sometimes use pressure coordinates in which atmospheric pressure is the vertical coordinate instead of meters, kilometers, et cetera. It makes understanding the orientation of the atmosphere a bit easier.

recon land shark...

One has to wonder if info [track change] is being delayed on purpose.

I keep remembering the Houston evacuation.

Bumper to bumper traffic on the freeway.

People stuck on the freeway with no water or food or gas.

One bus stuck on the freeway exploded and people died.

Many cars stuck on the freeway for hours left the main road
and drove blind into parts unknown.

Well, we have a big weekend ahead of us. I could see why they wouldn't want to disrupt some business to certain vacation spots. Economy > Your Life.

Hopefully Karl leaves this forum public during the day tomorrow.

If not, here is a good place to get info:

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewforum.....

Latest advisory is full of info. Too long to cut and paste.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIA....

Models still insisting on keeping him offshore, recurving it by 12 GMT today.

I'd be extremely nervous if I worked in FEMA right now. All its gonna take to put NYC under the gun is a slight shift of about 100 miles to the west on the track. And last nights models didn't appear to have a good handle on the initial position. Earl is already on the verge of 75 W longitude, which means unless a turn to the east happens today the outer banks will take a direct hit.

Hey Cross, all is quiet here. Should I be worried?

Models trending Eastward recently. Looks like general Northward movement with a couple wobbles to the West.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop....