Genesis wrote..

Please? Right up the Potomac?

While I appreciate your sentiment 110%, I would rather it didn't. That track would have it walking right over my head. Isabelle, a few years ago, was bad enough. Biggest tidal surge here since 1933. [****storm]

Why I think the models are totally ****ed, and that Earl is going to stay way south and west:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/f....

* Observe the huge surface high building in behind departing Hurricane Danielle. Models consistently underestimate the strength of these.

* Watch the system currently over the northern Gulf; if it lifts northeast, then Earl will move as currently forecast on a recurve path (because this would indicate that the surface high behind Danielle will move rapidly east, permitting Earl to sling up the coast). But if the Gulf system instead elongates and retrogrades and lifts northwest up the Mississippi Valley, then that is your clue that the high pressure off the east coast will remain strong and immobile while Earl is shunted south and west underneath into either the southeastern US or into the Gulf of Mexico.

The 12z model runs will probably begin to show this shift. If confirmed by the 00Z and Earl explosively intensifies to cat-4 tomorrow (while avoiding Hispanola), half the country is going to be in full-bore panic-mode as a Hugo-size/strength storm bears in with un-credible models shifting the track all over the place from run-to-run.

I like Bezzle's thinking on this.

The models are screwed, especially the GFS with the recent changes they've made to it; I'm also skeptical on the Canadian which lifts it through the Bahamas and to the north. The only thing I trust about the Canadian at this point is that with each run it shifts the solution further west.

Check out the current steering analysis and remember the "leaf in a stream" analogy. A direct impact on Antigua and Anguilla, St. Kitts and BVI are looking more and more likely, and PR is not out of the woods. Land interaction can drastically alter direction and all bets are off.

Looks like Earl is down 7mb in the last 2-3 hours.

Yep: "explosive intensification" (that's an actual term) is underway.

EMC first mod to depict land strikes: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cg....

12hrs to 00z....

St. Maarten radar:

http://weather.an/radar/cappisxm.html

French Antilles radar animation:

http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php....

Doesn't look too strong later.

Earlier visible loop looked like it took a couple of steps NW but seems to be back on a due west course. And I can make out the beginnings of an eye.

Recon plane is in the area now, so it'll be interesting to see what they find.

Time to 'short' N.C. coast...?

UP THE POTOMAC!!!!

Dakine, I would hope east coast folks are starting to make their preps. That said, I don't think anybody really knows where Earl is going, which is disturbing. A lot of stock was put into the weakness to the north lifting Earl that direction, but the steering analysis shows the weakness to be extremely narrow, and the steering layer suggests west.

Pressure's dropping fast in Earl. Recon's in him now, they found a 968mb pressure reading. IIRC, that's a 10mb drop from the last reading a few hours ago.

As Bezzle said, this is indeed some explosive intensification.

Earl's now forecast to reach Cat 4 strength and if he doesn't start to make a more northerly turn real soon, I'm concerned he's going to be a CONUS threat.

Recon confirms 968 MB extrapolated from a high-altitude dropsonde.

Category D-cup!

see video half-way down the page...
http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/st....

"Explosive intensification" criteria (which Earl is exceeding by a factor of about 3x): http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rapid_deepe....

(In related news, a Tin Blizzard is hitting the General forum. Er, just saying....)

Looks like the mood on that thread is a Cat 5!

Near miss again doomers.

Randy, tell that to folks in Barbuda.

Tough break for Barbuda. Island living is inherently dumb.

Circular eyewall on radar: http://weather.an/radar/cappisxm.html

High-pressure still scouring out South Carolina. Danielle outflow still impacting/steering Earl.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/f....

Sigh. Anyway, yep Bezzle, looks to be headed due west, slight wobbles here and there.

If the models **** up so bad that this thing goes south of Puerto Rico tomorrow, there will be heads on pikes.

Cat 2, 100mph, 941mb

Northward turn is now not forecast until Tuesday.