Already another slug coming off Africa, this time pretty low.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/f....

If 98L develops (and I think it will), it'll be da bomb -- tracking due west at 15N all the way into the Caribbean, probably as a very powerful Allen-type hurricane by the time it gets there. Gaston will be far enough away from any other system to not be interfered by it (as is happening with Fiona right now due to proximity with Earl).

And Karl is moving up the list...fast!

Bring it! Obama gonna give me a new house!

Hurricane Karl, the first recorded cat-6, sends a storm surge up Wall Street.
....not even the dog gets away from this one.

Annnnnnd there's Gaston.



000
WTNT34 KNHC 012040
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GASTON ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092010
500 PM AST WED SEP 01 2010

...THE SEVENTH NAMED STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS...THE FOURTH TROPICAL
STORM IN THE LAST ELEVEN DAYS...

Track looks straight west and farther south than the previous systems - it's still early in the game, but I wonder if this won't be a Caribbean storm?

I don't like the looks of Gaston at all:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cg....

Gaston has legs. Lots can happen, but he is taking the low road.

000
WTNT34 KNHC 022032
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GASTON ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092010
500 PM AST THU SEP 02 2010

...GASTON BECOMES A REMNANT LOW OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...

THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON GASTON...UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.

That's a premature move by the NHC....IMO they should have downgraded it to a depression until tomorrow morning before writing it off entirely.

Just before sunset, a clearly defined, vigorous and perfectly circular low-level circulation could be seen.

Gaston is currently traversing a pocket of cooler water, and should pick back up again tomorrow or Saturday.

GFS develops this into a hurricane, through the Leeward Islands into the northern Caribbean by Wed 9/8. Still early yet, but will be interesting to watch.

Chances of redevelopment now up to 50%.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TODAY IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE REMNANT LOW OF GASTON LOCATED ABOUT HALFWAY BETWEEN THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS FAVOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD
RE-FORM AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 MPH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

For anyone not worn out on Earl Wobble Watch, definite signs of life here.

GFS still develops this. Definitely looks to be spinning up.

Now up to 80% chance of TD development at any time.

WTNT01 KNGU 041400
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN 100NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.4N 45.7W
TO 16.4N 49.2W WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE
DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF A NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNING AT THIS TIME.
2. A LOW PRESSURE CENTER WITH AN ESTIMATED CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 1008MB IS LOCATED OVER EASTERN ATLANTIC.
MOVEMENT IS WESTWARD AT APPROXIMATELY 8 KNOTS.
THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
MORE FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THIS SYSTEM
REMAINS OVER WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED
CONVECTION IS APPARENT NEAR THE CENTER OF THIS SYSTEM.
WEAK UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS EVIDENT OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS WAVE.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, ALLOWED TO EXPIRE,
OR CANCELLED BY 051400Z SEP 2010.//

Good low level circulation with convection bursting over the center.

And down to 60%, but the language from NHC seems to indicate they think it will redevelop. This sucker is taking his own sweet time.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANT LOW OF
GASTON LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS HAS
CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. DATA FROM THE NATIONAL
SCIENCE FOUNDATION G-V AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT VERY DRY AIR IS
PRESENT NEAR THE LOW PRESSURE AREA...WHICH MAY BE INHIBITING
FURTHER ORGANIZATION OF THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT...AND THE LOW SHOULD BE
MOVING INTO AN AREA WITH HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES IN A DAY OR SO.
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.