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User Info Coal, any cheap Canadian plays out there? in forum [SoftCommodities]
Lplate
Posts: 4737
Incept: 2008-08-06
Gold
Australia
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Quote:
January 24, 2011
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business....

COKING coal prices are expected to surge through a record $US400/tonne this week as exports from Queensland's drenched Bowen Basin slip because stockpiles at mines and ports are running out and full rail capacity is yet to return.

Prices for Queensland coking coal jumped $US33/tonne to $US383 last week, up 70 per cent on quarterly contract prices of $US225/tonne, according to the latest Platts assessments quoted by Macquarie.

"There is not enough slack in the metallurgical (coking) coal supply chain to cover the losses being incurred," Macquarie analyst Max Layton said.

"With this, the seaborne met coal market is being undersupplied week after week, with risks of amplified deficits from rampant Chinese steel output and strengthening La Nina conditions still present."

Energy Publishing's Queensland coking coal index has risen to $US365/tonne, from $US332 a week earlier.

"Industry consensus is the asking price of coking coal will effortlessly soar past $US400/tonne by this time next week," Energy Publishing said in its Coking Coal Index report, issued on Friday.

Although rain and flooding have eased, and deliveries from mines to ports are resuming, rail capacity is still reduced.

Exports have been supported by mines and ports eating into diminishing coal stockpiles, which had been stored in preparation for the wet season.

According to Macquarie, there has been a massive drawdown of almost all the available stockpiles in the Queensland coal chain.

"This cannot continue forever, and with the current rates of railing to the ports below volumes being exported, we would expect that export volumes for weeks three and four in January would actually be the lowest seen thus far," Mr Layton said.

"We expect to see the spot price for met coal continue to trend upwards in coming weeks."

Coking coal prices are tracked by a number of indexes, so there is some dispute about the record spot price, which was reached in the wake of 2008 Queensland rains......
Lowpdop
Posts: 281
Incept: 2008-01-18
Green
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PCX bullish pennant break to the upside today.....

top of pennant from base of staff...from of the recent beginning of move forming the pennant is ~11 points....break out from 23.50-24 range today suggests near term measured up move for PCX to ~35 per share

Probably NEAR term...like less then 4 weeks considering news flow and 11+ million short


Lowpdop
Posts: 281
Incept: 2008-01-18
Green
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Coal Mines in Australia's Queensland Brace for Cyclone After Worst Flood
By Jason Scott -

Australia’s Queensland state, recovering from the nation’s worst flood disaster, is bracing for a cyclone expected to hit its northeastern coast within three days, threatening more damage to stricken coal mines.

Tropical Cyclone Anthony has reformed into a cyclone today and is likely to hit the coast between Mackay and Cooktown on Jan. 30 or Jan. 31, Bureau of Meteorology forecaster Rick Threlfall said in a phone interview from Brisbane. It may reach a category two intensity, out of a scale of one to five, with five being the highest, he said. Queensland coal-mining districts may be affected with storms and heavy rain, he said.

Almost two months of torrential rains in the Queensland have killed as many as 32 people, damaged about 30,000 properties, cut rail lines and spoiled crops. Lost coal production may cost as much as A$9.5 billion ($9.4 billion), with 85 percent of coal mines in the Australian state, the biggest exporter of the steelmaking commodity, “impaired by excess water,” Queensland Resources Council said yesterday.

“Areas of concern at this stage would be the central coalfields area such as Emerald, but pretty much everywhere on that coastal strip and inland could see very heavy rainfalls early next week,” Threlfall said.

Drenched Pits

The floods caused BHP Billiton Ltd. and Rio Tinto Group to declare force majeure, a legal clause that allows producers to miss deliveries. The removal of water from pits is likely to be affected by the “state government’s risk-averse environment regulator,” the lack of pumping equipment and water damage, the Resources Council said yesterday.

Steelmakers in Asia may be forced to pay as much as 78 percent more for three-month hard coking coal contracts starting April 1 after flooding disrupted output, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

Queensland has 57 producing coal mines, according to the Resources Council. It may take between two to three months for normal operations to resume, the government said last week.

On the other side of the continent, Western Australia has removed onshore warnings for Severe Tropical Cyclone Bianca, which caused disruptions to oil output for Chevron Corp., Santos Ltd., Woodside Petroleum Ltd. and Apache Corp.

Bianca, a category three cyclone, was 220 nautical miles west-southwest of the town of Exmouth at 8 a.m. local time today. It’s forecast to weaken as it track southwest before heading toward Australia’s southwest coast, including the Western Australian state capital Perth, by Jan. 30, where it may trigger rain and storms, according to the bureau’s website.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-28....
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