Note: The first image below is only updated every three weeks, and won't be updated again until March 17; I've decided to post it anyway due the increasingly likelihood of another heavy snow event over the upper Midwest early next week -- possibly the heaviest one so far this winter in terms of water-content. If the forecast verifies, Minneapolis will be less then ten inches of snow from breaking it's all-time snowiest-winter record (on the 20th of February, Minneapolis set a record for the heaviest single-day February snowfall at 14" with some parts of the metro approaching 20".) Water-equivalent exceeds a foot of rain in areas of the Minnesota River watershed.

The exceptionally deep snowpack over the Dakotas, Minnesota and Wisconsin is altering the local spring micro-climate, keeping daily high temperatures some ten to twenty degrees lower than they are normally this time of year -- which prompts a weather feedback loop in that spring storms running into the cold airmass will continue dumping snow rather than rain, and such a regime can persist until a stronger spring storm runs thunderstorms over the snowpack, resulting in extremely rapid melting of an entire winter's worth of snow in only a few days.

This chart may not include the data from the February 20-20 storm, in which case the zones of potential flooding are not as large as they might be.


February 20-21 snow totals:


Rain-equivalent:


Next week's forecast depicting heavy blizzard in upper-Midwest: (Another 1" to 1.5" rain equivalent worth of snow, or over a foot, is projected.)


Intermediate-range forecast models predict two more weeks of high temperatures less than 40F for Minneapolis (which will keep the snowpack intact), an additional 2.6 inches of rain-equivalent precipitation, followed by an extremely rapid warm-up with highs jumping into the upper 50s despite two feet of snow still on the ground -- this a near-perfect recipe for epic flooding:


March 11 precip prediction, 00Z GFs 3-11

Sandbagging the Mississippi coming soon.....

You guys didn't want Australia to have ALL the fun did ya?

Im smack dab in the middle of this in the Dakota's. But if I flood where I am....eastern ND is gone. Our biggest local worry is how Devils Lake reacts to this. Have we managed to piddle away enough time to not have a "controlled" relief from the extra flow of this or is the eastern edge of Devils Lake going to give way? If Devils lake goes natural it takes three days for the water to normally go by my town. I don't know how fast it would come if it is not controlled. Throw this into a confirmed heavy snow pack with lots of water in it and another potential heavy snow (Thanks Bezzle for making my morning). And we have a potential worse then 2009 Fargo or 1997 Grand Forks (I was present for both). The good/bad thing about the Red is it flows north so most of the Eastern ND water ends up in Canada, not into Minnesota and down the Mississippi.

Just an update from the upper plains.

We're gonna get ****ED this spring.

I remember this in the late 80s.... there is going to be a SERIOUS corn-holing coming in the upper midwest.....

I remember as a kid, growing up in NOLA, the big flood years... you could stand at the bottom of the levee and look 30 ft *up* at the mississippi struggling to top the levees...watch as huge uprooted trees floated by 30 feet over your head. Freeky.

Here in SW montana we have lots more snow than we have had in many years. Winter chinooks were short & cooler than normal so little has melted. All this snow will flow to the Missouri and then on down to the Mississippi. We will have some flooding but not as bad as those farther downstream.

Here in South Central Indiana (White/Wabash River Basin, both tributaries of the Ohio) we have already had significant rainfall and some flooding, which is atypical for this time of year; the heavy flows usually don't persist until late March / early April. Driving up SR 37 to Indy yesterday I witnessed quite a bit of overflow from the west fork of the White River, just north of Martinsville. Brown and Morgan counties saw extremely heavy flooding in 2008, the likes of which had not been seen in over 100 years, and I'm fairly certain this year will be approaching the same magnitude soon. This weekend we're due for 2+ inches of precipitation and a number of Southern Indiana counties are already under a flood watch.

Must be global warming!

Latest forecast for early next week: wrap-around blizzard for upper-Midwest + tornadic squall-line for the South:

Does Upper Mississippi flooding necessarily translate into Mid and Lower Mississippi flooding as well?

Not usually, Peter; in order for the Lower to go, both the Mississippi and the Ohio have to be flooding at the same time, and the flood crests have to coincide at the confluence.

In the red river valley, as well as some other areas of Manitoba and Saskatchewan one of the contributors to flooding will be the fact that the soils went into the winter fully saturated. Everything on the ground, as well as some of what is in the ground will end up in the rivers. I am hearing stories that in october there was water standing in places no one had ever seen water standing, even in the spring.

The three day thaw we had was just about enough to fill the culverts full of ice. This will slow the water flow to the rivers down until the roads wash out.

Yup, ground saturated. Never seen anything like it.

While combining last fall, there were places where we could step on a hillside near the crest of a hill, and have your footprint fill in with water.

At one time, where I broke through with the combine and got sunk. Ground was dry on top but soaked underneath everywhere. I put my beer on the ground to set up a tow strap, and while walking 3 feet away from the beer it fell over. Jump up and down on the ground....watch the waves. Quite amazing. Once the ground had been driven over once, it was like driving on a water bed. In many (most?) places, what appeared as dry ground would "move" as you went over it.

Lots of snow this year as well. Saskatchewan. Won't be anything soaking in this Spring.

I'm in Iowa, but along the Iowa, rather than the Mississippi. We had a major flood in 2008. I'm hoping we don't get a repeat. Our snowfall has been light this winter, but I'm worried about being downstream of this.

00Z GFS forecast for March 9th:

Ohio River getting into the act:

The Ohio river gets into this and things are going to get very interesting. I remember when barges couldn't move for delivery on the Mississippi and Burlington, Ia. was the only bridge for 90 miles in either direction.

I knew our warm weather here in Bama wouldn't last long. We can use the rain, ground is not saturated so we should be ok except for a few areas that always have some flooding. My biggest concern is the potential for 25 degree low Monday! I will have to get out and cover my blueberries and other plants that are already budding out. Fun, fun.

Good video of heavy water over Chagron Falls in Ohio, lots of ice tumbling over.

Its on weather channel, if the video doesn't come up its in the options at the bottom.

http://www.weather.com/outlook/videos/do....

blueberries should be ok at 25. they can handle a little frost if in the bud stage.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?....

Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
358 PM CST THU MAR 3 2011


...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK...

...THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ALONG THE COTTONWOOD...MINNESOTA
CROW...MISSISSIPPI FOR ST PAUL AND DOWNSTREAM AND THE ST CROIX...
IS MUCH ABOVE NORMAL...WITH MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING LIKELY AND
CONCERN IS INCREASING FOR RECORD FLOODING...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN

-MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND ITS TRIBUTARIES FROM ST CLOUD TO RED WING
-MINNESOTA RIVER AND ITS TRIBUTARIES
-ST CROIX RIVER
-CHIPPEWA RIVER IN WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN

THE CHANHASSEN OFFICE OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS IMPLEMENTED
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) FOR ALL SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA LOCATIONS IN THE MINNESOTA RIVER BASIN, THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER BASIN FROM ST. CLOUD TO RED WING, THE ST. CROIX RIVER BASIN
AND THE CHIPPEWA RIVER BASIN IN WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. AHPS ENABLES
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TO PROVIDE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC
RIVER OUTLOOKS.



CHANCE OF EXCEEDING FLOOD STAGES

DEP FROM
---------FLOOD STAGES--------- NORMAL
MINOR MODERATE MAJOR OF REACHING
LOCATION STG PCT STG PCT STG PCT FLOOD STAGE
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Redwood River at Redwood Falls 3SW (RWDM5)
6 >98% 15 23% 16 8% 79% GREATER
Cottonwood River at New Ulm 2SSE (NWUM5)
11 >98% 13 >98% 16 >98% 69% GREATER
Minnesota River at Montevideo (MVOM5)
14 >98% 16 >98% 17.5 >98% 59% GREATER
Minnesota River at Granite Falls (GTEM5)
888 >98% 893 91% 896 18% 74% GREATER
Minnesota River at New Ulm 2SE (NULM5)
796 >98% 800 >98% 805 93% 45% GREATER
Minnesota River at Mankato River (MNKM5)
22 >98% 25 96% 30 34% 86% GREATER
Minnesota River at Henderson (HENM5)
732 >98% 736 >98% 739.5 45% 71% GREATER
Minnesota River at Jordan (JDNM5)
25 >98% 28 >98% 34 68% 72% GREATER
Minnesota River at Shakopee (SKPM5)
708 >98% 713 >98% 720 72% 61% GREATER
Minnesota River at Savage (SAVM5)
702 >98% 710 >98% 712 96% 59% GREATER
Sauk River at St Cloud 3W (STCM5)
6 95% 7 62% 9 6% 78% GREATER
South Fork Crow River at Mayer (MAYM5)
11 >98% 15 >98% 16 91% 74% GREATER
South Fork Crow River at Delano (DELM5)
16.5 >98% 17.5 >98% 18.5 >98% 81% GREATER
Crow River at Rockford (RKFM5)
10 >98% 12 >98% 14 93% 79% GREATER
St Croix River at Stillwater (STLM5)
87 >98% 88 95% 89 90% 86% GREATER
Mississippi River at St Cloud (SCOM5)
9 85% 10 44% 11 16% 64% GREATER
Mississippi River at Anoka (AKAM5)
838 90% 840 52% 841 29% 76% GREATER
Mississippi River at Minneapolis WTP (MSPM5)
16 77% 16.5 62% 17 54% 68% GREATER
Mississippi River at St Paul - Smith Ave Brdg (STPM5)
14 >98% 15 >98% 17 >98% 76% GREATER
Mississippi River at Hastings 1NW - L&D 2 (HSTM5)
15 >98% 17 >98% 18 >98% 62% GREATER
Mississippi River at Red Wing L&D 3 (RDWM5)
680.5 >98% 681.5 >98% 683 91% 78% GREATER
Mississippi River at Red Wing (REDM5)
14 >98% 15 >98% 16 >98% 76% GREATER
Long Prairie River at Long Prairie River (LGPM5)
6 >98% 8 42% 10 --- 66% GREATER
Eau Claire River at Fall Creek 3N (FLCW3)
11 88% 14 65% 17 39% 63% GREATER
Chippewa River at Eau Claire (ECLW3)
773 67% 776 32% 777 26% 43% GREATER
Chippewa River at Durand (DURW3)
13 85% 15.5 54% 17 24% 44% GREATER
STG = STAGE (FEET)
PCT = PERCENT
--- = DISTRIBUTION COMPLETELY BELOW THIS STAGE
DEP = DEPARTURE

DUE TO THE SEPTEMBER RAINS...WATER LEVELS AND SOIL MOISTURE WERE
STILL ABOVE NORMAL AS WE WENT INTO THE WINTER FREEZE IN MID TO
LATE NOVEMBER. THIS SET THE STAGE FOR AN INCREASED THREAT FOR
FLOODING WITH A SPRING MELT.

IN ADDITION TO THE WET SOILS...PRECIPITATION FOR SEPTEMBER THROUGH
MID EARLY MARCH HAS REMAINED ABOVE NORMAL FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. LIQUID AMOUNTS FOR
THIS PERIOD RANGE FROM 11 INCHES IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA TO 18+ INCHES
IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA FOR THIS PERIOD. AMOUNTS
HAVE AVERAGED BETWEEN 15 TO 17 INCHES IN WEST CENTRAL WI.
THESE AMOUNTS ARE 125 PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO OVER 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL
IN PARTS OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.

SINCE THE LAST SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK IN THE THIRD WEEK OF
FEBRUARY...WE HAD ONE SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM THAT IMPACTED CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MN AND PARTS OF WESTERN CENTRAL WI. THE FAR UPPER SECTIONS
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER HOWEVER MISSED THE BRUNT OF THIS STORM. LIQUID
AMOUNTS FROM THIS STORM AVERAGED FROM 0.75 INCHES TO APPROXIMATELY 1.25
INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AS WELL AS WEST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. FOR THE TWO WEEK PERIOD THESE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE
150 TO 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL.

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS IN THE RIVER BASINS ARE QUITE SIGNIFICANT.
RECENT SNOW CORE AND REMOTE SENSING MEASUREMENTS SHOW THAT THERE IS
ROUGHLY 3 TO 5 INCHES OF WATER IN THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI AND WISCONSIN
CHIPPEWA BASINS. FOR THE UPPER MINNESOTA BASIN...5 TO 7 INCHES OF WATER
IS PRESENT IN THE BASIN. FROM A COMPARISON PERSPECTIVE IN THE PAST 60
YEARS...THIS IS IN THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF THE RANKINGS FOR SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENTS. SO...WHILE WE DID LOSE SOME WATER DURING THE BRIEF
WARM UP DURING THE THIRD WEEK OF FEBRUARY...MOST OF THE WATER IS STILL
CONTAINED IN THE SNOWPACK...SOILS OR THE SMALLER CREEKS AND STREAMS

GIVEN THE ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL OVER THE PAST SIX MONTHS...WE DO
NOT HAVE DROUGHT CONCERNS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE
DROUGHT MONITOR PLEASE REFERENCE
WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML

PRIOR TO FREEZE UP...STREAMS AND CREEKS AS WELL AS MAINSTEM RIVERS
WERE RUNNING ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FOR LATE NOVEMBER.
HENCE THICK ICE FORMED IN MANY RIVERS AND STREAMS THIS WINTER. WHILE
THE BRIEF WARM UP THE THIRD WEEK OF FEBRUARY DID HELP TO MELT SOME
OF THE ICE IN THE LOWER MINNESOTA AND PARTS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEYS...MANY LOCATIONS STILL AT LEAST HAVE ICE ALONG THE EDGES OF
THE RIVERS. SO THE TREAT OF ICE JAMS REMAINS A CONCERN WITH SPRING
MELT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON STREAM FLOW CONDITIONS
FOR USGS LOCATIONS PLEASE REFERENCE
FOR MINNESOTA WWW.WATERDATA.USGS.GOV/MN/NWIS/RT
FOR WISCONSIN WWW.WATERDATA.USGS.GOV/WI/NWIS/RT

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON STREAM FLOW CONDITIONS AT
MN DNR MAINTAINED RIVER GAUGES PLEASE REFERENCE
WWW.DNR.STATE.MN.US/WATERS/CSG/INDEX.HTML
OR
CLIMATE.UMN.EDU/DOW/WEEKLY_STREAM_FLOW/STREAM_FLOW_WEEKLY.ASP

WHILE WE STILL HAVE MARCH AND APRIL LEFT FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW
POTENTIAL...WITH THE CURRENT SOIL MOISTURE LEVELS WIDESPREAD AND
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA ESPECIALLY IN THE MINNESOTA...CROW AND
MISSISSIPPI RIVERS...FROM ST PAUL AND DOWNSTREAM. MANY LOCATIONS
SHOW A HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MAJOR FLOOD LEVELS.

SEVERAL LOCATIONS HAVE AN INCREASED RISK OF 20 PERCENT OR MORE OF
EXCEEDING THEIR FLOOD OF RECORDS.
THE LOCATIONS INCLUDE
*COTTONWOOD RIVER
- NEW ULM
*MINNESOTA RIVER
-NEW ULM
-MANKATO
-HENDERSON
-JORDAN
-SHAKOPEE
*SOUTH FORK OF THE CROW AND CROW RIVER
- MAYER
- DELANO
- ROCKFORD
*MISSISSIPPI
- ST PAUL
- HASTINGS
- RED WING

ONE DIFFERENCE FROM THE PAST TWO YEARS IS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
SYSTEM...FROM MINNEAPOLIS TO THE HEADWATERS...DO HAVE AN ABOVE
NORMAL THREAT FOR FLOODING. THIS INCLUDES THE SMALLER TRIBUTARIES
OF THE LONG PRAIRIE AND SAUK RIVERS. IN ADDITION...IN WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN FOR THE FIRST TIME IN SEVERAL YEARS...THE CHIPPEWA RIVER
SYSTEM ALSO HAS THE INCREASED POTENTIAL TO SEE HIGHER LEVELS
WITH THE SNOW MELT.

PLEASE REFER TO THE ABOVE TABLES FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS AND
PROBABILITIES.

IN ADDITION TO RIVER FLOODING...WIDESPREAD OVERLAND OR AREAL
FLOODING WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY IN THE SMALLER CREEKS
AND STREAMS AND WITH AREA LAKES. SOME RIVERS THAT EXPERIENCED
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IN SEPTEMBER THAT HAVE A HEIGHTENED CONCERN
INCLUDE THE LITTLE COTTONWOOD...WATONWAN...BLUE EARTH...COBB...LE
SUEUR...CANNON AND STRAIGHT RIVER SYSTEMS. ADDITIONAL RIVERS OF
CONCERN ACROSS MINNESOTA INCLUDE...THE LAC QUI PARLE...POMME DE
TERRE...CHIPPEWA...BUFFALO CREEK...AND ZUMBRO SYSTEM. FOR

WISCONSIN THE APPLE...RUSH...EAU GALLE...HAY...FLAMBEAU AND JUMP
RIVERS COULD ALSO SEE SOME HIGHER LEVELS THIS SPRING.

THE MEDIUM RANGE OUTLOOK SHOWS A POTENTIAL WINTER STORM FOR
TUESDAY MARCH 8TH INTO WEDNESDAY MARCH 9TH...OF NEXT WEEK. THE
OUTLOOK THROUGH THE END OF MARCH SHOWS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND EQUAL CHANCES FOR ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION THE
CLIMATE OUTLOOK FOR MARCH THROUGH MAY SHOWS BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND EQUAL CHANCES FOR BELOW OR ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION.

FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS REFERENCE
WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE
RIVER... SOIL MOISTURE...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS
OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF
PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE
PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC NUMBERS
ARE PART OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE`S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC
PREDICTION SERVICE. LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED
NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH THROUGHOUT THE YEAR. VISIT OUR WEB SITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=MPX FOR MORE WEATHER AND RIVER
INFORMATION INCLUDING GRAPHS OF PROBABILISTIC RIVER OUTLOOKS.
$$

Good news and bad news with the latest GFS model runs:

Good: the chance of a monster blizzard over the Minnesota River valley are lower as the storm appears to be shifting south.

Bad: Another hellacious soaking for the Ohio River watershed.