Market Ticker Forums
Detailed market commentary at The Market Ticker and Ticker Classics (The Year 2012 In Review)
Donations accepted; we offer GOLD ACCESS for enhanced privileges. T-Shirts, caps, coffee mugs? Click here.
BlogTalkRadio - Mondays at 3:30 Central - Yes, TickerGuy has a radio show (kinda)
Rss Icon RSS available You are not signed on; if you are a visitor please register for a free account!
Sponsored Advertising
To remove advertising from your display upgrade to Gold Donor status
MarketTicker Forums Read Message in General
User: Not logged on
Top Forum Top Login Control Panel FAQ Register Logout
Showing Page 3 of 6  First123456Last
User Info Economic impact of japanese disaster. in forum [General]
Chimichanga
Posts: 525
Incept: 2011-03-16
Green
Tokyo
Online
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Purely anecdotal, but interesting side story for potentially unexpected economic effects.

Was in the supermarket tonight shopping for vegetables. The only leaf vegetables marked at half-price in the bargain bin (because they were getting old, not moving off the shelves) were from Ibaraki and Fukuoka (a lot of supermarkets here are big on labeling where stuff is sourced, and even which farmer produced it, so it is easy to refuse produce coming from certain places).

Fukushima and Fukuoka are both two-kanji-character words, and they use the same kanji character for the "Fuku" part. I am wondering if people were glancing at the lettuce labeled "Fukuoka" a bit too quickly, thinking "Fukushima lettuce, noooooo, don't think so" and leaving it in the bin.

Or maybe pure coincidence that those were the only two kinds of leaf produce getting old on the shelves. Dunno. Will check this out further in future trips to the store.

Schill
Posts: 724
Incept: 2009-03-19
Green
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
People do not understand how many modern devices--whether consumer devices, or devices for producing consumer products--have at least one key component directly or indirectly sourced from Japan. For example, while you may not be a buyer of Japanese bearings or programmable logic integrated circuits, an automobile may use them, or machinery and equipment that makes, say, toilet paper may use them. Or a particular grade of steel may only be made in Japan. So this impacts our just-in-time, globalized world both in terms of direct and indirect supply of consumer products. As the Japanese companies themselves outsource to other Asian countries, the impact may be somewhat subdued, but I wouldn't be surprised to begin seeing lots of temporary shortages in ways that appear seemingly random.
Chimichanga
Posts: 525
Incept: 2011-03-16
Green
Tokyo
Online
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Along those lines, Schill--

I had been thinking that companies started to back away from Just In Time strategies after the post-9/11 supply chain problems (and for Japan, also after the big Taiwan earthquake, which left a lot of people scrambling for semiconductors).

I suppose that in Japan it is hard to "back away" from JIT all that much, because the key issue is land use/land price/land availability, but I was thinking that American companies had been incorporating more leeway into their supply chain strategies after their experiences with 9/11, with all the planes grounded and so on.
Drench
Posts: 28631
Incept: 2009-11-10
Green
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Quote:
Honda Motor Co., which makes more than 80 percent of the automobiles it sells in the U.S. at North American plants, plans to reduce output on the continent starting tomorrow as parts supplies from Japan dwindle.

Employees were told today that the Tokyo-based company will cut production temporarily by varying levels at factories in the U.S., Canada and Mexico, said Ron Lietzke, a spokesman based in Marysville, Ohio. Honda doesn’t know how long the reductions will be needed, he said.

“It’s a fluid situation,” Lietzke said. The company relies on Japan for “a small number of critical parts,” including some needed for engines and electronics, he said, without being more specific.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-29....
Asimov
Posts: 103858
Incept: 2007-08-26
Gold
East Tennessee Eastern Time
Online
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Definitely expected, but also an "oh ****" moment.

Quote:
The government is considering limiting the use of electricity by major firms to deal with anticipated power shortages this summer as Tokyo Electric Power Co. has lost some of its supply capacity following the giant March 11 earthquake and tsunami, government sources said Wednesday.

The Economy, Trade and Industry Ministry and the Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism Ministry have called on industry groups in their respective jurisdictions to voluntarily map out and implement energy-saving measures.

But if such moves are not enough to cover the anticipated supply shortages in the summer, the government will start to restrict power consumption by large-lot energy users, such as companies operating factories during daytime peak hours, the sources said.

The government will decide on whether to go through with the restrictions by the end of April, they added. If the plan is realized, it would be the first time for authorities to put a cap on power usage by industries, since 1974 during the first oil shock.

Electricity shortages are expected to reach up to 15 million kilowatts this summer, raising concerns about massive blackouts in Japan.

At the request of the government, the Japan Business Federation, known as Nippon Keidanren, will consider plans to save power by industries at the first meeting of its special committee on quake disaster reconstruction to be held Thursday, sources at the nation's most influential business lobby said.


http://english.kyodonews.jp/news/2011/03....

----------
It's justifiably immoral to deal morally with an immoral entity.
If you trade based on what other people say, you will lose money. Especially what I say. I won't be held responsible. Festina lente.
Landshark
Posts: 11236
Incept: 2008-02-07
Silver
The Wild West
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
BDI is beginning to resemble 2008 again. Not so sure if there's a direct correlation, but this can't help.

----------
Success in life is a matter not so much of talent and opportunity as of concentration and perseverance.

– C. W. Wendte
Rbarreira
Posts: 2826
Incept: 2009-05-27

Portugal -> Sweden
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
This article has more things, but I thought this passage was useful to give an idea of how life in Tokyo is right now (with obvious effects on the economy):

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-03....

Quote:
Fallout Continues

The fallout from the March 11 earthquake, tsunami and still unfolding nuclear crisis is ushering in an age of self-restraint in a city known for consumerism. Not only are normally bustling Prada, Tiffany and Hermes shops empty -- when they’re not closed to save energy -- so are higher-end eateries.

Walking around Tokyo is quite an experience. While the place certainly isn’t a ghost town, it’s eerily quiet. It’s a good thing Tokyo is reasonably crime free. Otherwise, the fact that shops are only turning on a few lights and operating darkly would make the place a shoplifter’s paradise. Many elevators, escalators, heaters and televisions used for advertisements are off. So are other creature-comforts like toilet-seat warmers.

Many pachinko parlors that operate with a jamboree of buzzers, bells and whistles that flows loudly into the street are sound-free. The emptiness of the shelves at the city’s ubiquitous 24-hour convenience stores smacks more of Moscow, circa 1986, than Tokyo in 2011. Karaoke clubs are closing early, baseball games are being shifted to daytime and even Tokyo’s fabled cherry-blossom-viewing parties are being scaled back.

Got Toilet Paper?

Rolling blackouts have created a bull market for LED lamps and flashlights. Suddenly, department stores regret not having bigger camping-equipment sections. Really, who knew? Tokyoites are hoarding bottles of water and toilet paper is frustratingly scarce. My local reggae bar owner told me he’s stopped placing extra rolls in the bathroom. His patrons are stealing them.

And then there are the more headline-grabbing disruptions. Plants run by the likes of Asahi Breweries Ltd., Fuji Heavy Ltd., Meiji Holdings Co., Nikon Corp. and Toyota Motor Corp. have been shuttered. Tourists are canceling spring trips to Japan. Many of the foreigners who fled Tokyo have yet to return.

So, economists out there: Still think Japan will experience positive growth this year? That rebuilding efforts in the northeast will be enough to overcome the extent to which Tokyoites and their employers are living the modern-day equivalent of a late 19th century existence? I sure don’t.

----------
In Soviet Russia, the government regulates the banks.
Rbarreira
Posts: 2826
Incept: 2009-05-27

Portugal -> Sweden
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List

----------
In Soviet Russia, the government regulates the banks.
End_the_bubbles
Posts: 9515
Incept: 2009-03-25
Green
The New 3rd World
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
After 20 years of money printing, it took a tragic earthquake to prove it doesn't work. You can't print power or over-consumption.

----------

In the long run even the most despotic governments with all their brutality and cruelty are no match for ideas. Eventually the ideology that has won the support of the majority will prevail and cut the ground from under the tyrant's feet and rise in rebellion to overthrow their masters.
Spazznout
Posts: 1704
Incept: 2009-04-15
Green
Columbus, Ohio
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Thought I would share.........hope this is the correct place to post this.........My dad works at the Honda Mnfgr facility in Marysville Ohio.......as of Wed. of this week the assembly lines are only rolling every other day. They have kept line workers busy with Maint. and cleaning this week........but that wont last long..........the problem is they depend on several critical components from Japanese factories............Dad says some pics were seen by some upper level management here in Ohio of the plant in Japan..............It dont look good........the earthquake did a number on the plant........there talking possible complete rebuild may be needed....

There GDP is screwed...........

ETA oh yeah and there will be unintended and currently unforeseen economic disruption here in the US as well as the rest of the world due to this entire tragic event.......
The plant in Marysville employees directly and indirectly via suppliers and transport the better portion of Logan county........


----------
"In a land without Rule of Law even a sane man who desecrates the state must be made to look crazy. "
Rubicon Jan. 9, 2011 blog post.
"Those who make peaceful revolution impossible, make violent revolution inevitable."
Rdytmire
Posts: 1022
Incept: 2008-07-07
Silver
Atlanta Ga
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Interesting conversation with Lowes just now:

We have a front loader that with the extended warranty (we only do this for the big appliances) start to leak around it's main seal. It's been fantastic for a couple of years otherwise.

The repair guy came in a 2 weeks ago and identified the issue. He told us "No big deal, I just need to order a new front door seal."

Today, Lowes corporate calls. Sending us a check for the the washer. No ETA on the seal (she implied they would not be getting one in).

When I pressed, she would not outright admit that it was a supply chain issue from Japan but didn't deny it either.

Are inventories so tight that they could run out of parts that quickly?





----------
"Awesome: I'm a pig and a bigot." - Bezzle
"I don't want a government that's able to effectively know whenever a circumcision happens." - Mrbill
Asimov
Posts: 103858
Incept: 2007-08-26
Gold
East Tennessee Eastern Time
Online
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Rdytmire: Welcome to just-in-time inventories.

----------
It's justifiably immoral to deal morally with an immoral entity.
If you trade based on what other people say, you will lose money. Especially what I say. I won't be held responsible. Festina lente.
Spazznout
Posts: 1704
Incept: 2009-04-15
Green
Columbus, Ohio
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Rdytmire........it is called "just in time delivery".......the sad thing is our entire supply chain is now built on this principle.............now do you see why keeping a few weeks or months supply of food and water on hand is not such a bat **** crazy Idea.................

welcome to the real world ................ where nothing is as it seems

----------
"In a land without Rule of Law even a sane man who desecrates the state must be made to look crazy. "
Rubicon Jan. 9, 2011 blog post.
"Those who make peaceful revolution impossible, make violent revolution inevitable."
Rdytmire
Posts: 1022
Incept: 2008-07-07
Silver
Atlanta Ga
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Oh I know it...I have tons of supplies stockpiled. I just didn't expect a rubber seal for a washer to be impacted so quickly.

If something like this was effected then our supply chain is MUCH more screwed than I imagined.

And I imagined a lot.

Of course, we purchase all our appliances from Lowes, so they might have just been trying to keep us loyal customers. I'm hoping this is a more reasonable explanation.





----------
"Awesome: I'm a pig and a bigot." - Bezzle
"I don't want a government that's able to effectively know whenever a circumcision happens." - Mrbill
Asimov
Posts: 103858
Incept: 2007-08-26
Gold
East Tennessee Eastern Time
Online
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Cutting you a check for a new one instead of a door seal isn't trying to keep you as a customer. Imagine how many appliances you're going to have to purchase to make up for that.

Sorry. There's a major problem with the japanese disaster and we're just barely starting to see it.

----------
It's justifiably immoral to deal morally with an immoral entity.
If you trade based on what other people say, you will lose money. Especially what I say. I won't be held responsible. Festina lente.
Johnny_crab
Posts: 1936
Incept: 2008-10-09
Gold
Boonieland south Texas
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
iPods and some L-ion cell(battery) makers impacted:
http://www.plasticsnews.com/blog/2011/03....

The JIT thing bites HARD if the system gets an outside influence.

Somewhat relieved that valves(industrial automated valves) from Japan were not ordered for projects we have here.
Short-term future procurement(1~2 years) from Japan will be affected(Example: KTM valves http://www.ktm-valves.com/ktm_products.a....).

----------
If you want to know truth, start by turning off your television.

"They didn't just***** in the coffee, they took a **** on the hood of a '73 Eldo, let it bake in the DC sun, ground it up and sold it to us as coffee."--Duc888

Asimov
Posts: 103858
Incept: 2007-08-26
Gold
East Tennessee Eastern Time
Online
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Quote:
The ongoing nuclear crisis at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, crippled by the March 11 earthquake and tsunami, has forced other Japanese utility firms to put off resuming operations at their nuclear power plants and invest more in safety measures.


More: http://english.kyodonews.jp/news/2011/04....

----------
It's justifiably immoral to deal morally with an immoral entity.
If you trade based on what other people say, you will lose money. Especially what I say. I won't be held responsible. Festina lente.
Marc2mrkt
Posts: 369
Incept: 2008-04-12
Green
Taipei
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
If anyone is interested, here is Andy Xie's take on Japan:

How Japan's Earthquake Will Shake the World
http://english.caing.com/2011-03-30/1002....
Thumper
Posts: 220
Incept: 2007-09-09

FNQ
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
The Jap knowledge base will remain intact, just the manufacturing base will become destroyed. They will export the knowledge of how to make the components. 10 years away, irrespective of how Japan has faired, the world will keep spinning, with the US and others taking on manufacture if necessary, assuming we don't all get fried. I'm sorry to just put my own opinion here and not some authoritative link. xx
Id5
Posts: 141
Incept: 2008-05-28

Northants, UK
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Thumper wrote..
They will export the knowledge of how to make the components. 10 years away, irrespective of how Japan has faired, the world will keep spinning

The knowledge to make is generally already known but 2 months rather than 10 years is just too long to get the quality of components certified to specific levels that are needed for industries such as aerospace.
End_the_bubbles
Posts: 9515
Incept: 2009-03-25
Green
The New 3rd World
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Forwarded from a friend (written by his wife's mom) whose family spends much time in Japan and was there during the Quake. They briefly came back to the states and are now back in Japan. I previously shared a Youtube video from the same family.

Quote:
Subject: Takayama Report



Dear Family,
You have all no doubt read scores of earthquake/tsunami reports, so you are excused from reading all this, but wanted to share some of our experiences and adventures of late. Last night we drove back from Takayama/Shichigahama, the coastal area of “7 beaches”--two of which are the ones that we have enjoyed for many summers since mom and daddy first visited Takayama in 1956. It is also among the hardest hit areas by the tsunami. You have all seen horrific scenes on TV, and as Philip (P-chan) said after his first trip up there 3 days after the earthquake, the reality is far worse than the TV images. As we drove toward Tak through Tagajo, we saw cars stacked up on top of eachother, smashed up, smashed into buildings and fields. Mud and sludge everywhere. In and around Tak, in Hanabuchi and Shobuta (the two fishing villages on either side of Tak) piles and piles of rubble, once houses, that now that look like match sticks. I took a bunch of pictures, but don’t yet know how to get them from a camera onto an e-mail. (Yes, Andrew, I know you tried to teach me once, but I can’t remember : ) But you have seen P-chan’s pictures--I took one of the fishing boat on top of a house in Hanabuchi, and the place where Haruka’s cafe sat overlooking the water--which is now just a slab of cement--nothing there. The sign that says “Tsunami evacuation area” right by Hitomi San’s Totoya--a little restaurant and minshuku as well as her home--that got swept over by the Tsunami. Her house, which is pretty high up, is still standing, but she said the wave went completely over her and the house--totally terrifying. Almost everything around her is literally smashed. Endo carpenter’s house in Hanabuchi wiped out; Hidemasa whose "house" was just across from the surfer beach wiped out. Everywhere you look, utter, utter devastation. We counted over 20 containers from ships (big ones the size of the back of a semi-truck) on the beaches going toward Shobuta; a number of them on “our” surfer beach, and even one in the water by the regular Tak beach--which would seem impossible to get in, with the jacks out in the water. The water on that beach is all the way to the cement--there is no sand beach there.
But far more amazing than that is the attitude and spirit of the people--no complaining, no “Oh poor me”---just thankfulness for life, and determination to re-build---along with the feeling of being “shell-shocked”--which we all feel, with the continuing after-shocks each of which makes our hearts race, wondering if this is another big one, and if we will need to evacuate.
Between Wednesday and Friday, we were able to find (among the ruble) 7 different family units of people that we have known, and bring them food and clothing and hugs. Japan, which is not very much of a hugging culture, has gotten more huggy since this disaster. Also very amazing is the amount of clean up that has already been done--bags and bags of wet garbage piled high in neat stacks. Many roads cleared, even with rubble stacked high on both sides. Some roads that were cracked by the earth quake already repaired. We were able to go all the way to Sendai-Higashi on the expressway--which was closed when Philip went up shortly after the quake.
I had been able to call from Tokyo and reach Haruka (the young woman who ran the Hanabuchi Cafe) on her cell phone in the shelter where she and her family are staying, and asked her if there was anything in particular I could bring her, besides food and such. She said socks--so I went out to Uniqlo with Naomi and got a large quantity of men’s, women’s, and kids socks and underwear, and when other Tokyo friends heard that they brought stuff too, so it was fun to be able to bring those things besides necessary stuff like food and toilet paper and tooth brushes and such. By the way, one of the “shelters” for the evacuees, including Haruka, is the Kokusai mura, the place where Nelle and Ryan had their wedding reception.
We drove to Tak with two totally packed vehicles--Philip and Anda’s old Pajero and our van--full of food and supplies as well as water, kerosene, and gasoline--which are in short supply in that area. Also a generator, which we gave to Hidemasa to use until power is restored. The procurement of the generator is another story! We were in LA, having taken a pre-planned short trip to the US a few days after the earthquake. Hearing that generators were needed here because of massive power outages, I called United Airlines to see if they would allow me to bring one without paying overweight baggage fees for the relief efforts. But after several hours on the phone over a couple of days, I was only able to leave a recorded message with the right department asking permission. One hour before Lea was going to take me to LAX for my flight back, the person with authority called back and said I could bring a 100 pound generator (for free). That set Lea and I off on a wild adventure going from one Home Depot to another, trying to procure the right type, enroute to the airport. But thanks to Lea’s persistence, the mission was accomplished, and there will be a little more light and power in Shichigahama!
It was especially fun to bring fresh vegetables from Tokyo to Mrs. Sakamoto and her daughter, Mrs. Uchimi--because as you Tak people know, the Sakamotos have provided vegetables to the Tak community for over 50 years. I also gave some cans of corn to Mrs. Uchimi (Sakamoto daughter), and joked about how their family had supplied real corn to the missionary community for so many years, that it was nothing that we could give them these very small things. The older (parent) Sakamoto’s house is fine--it is high up, but the Uchimi house was wiped out.
For all of you who know Tak, basically all the Tak houses are fine--just a few things shaken by the earth quake, but for the most part high enough up so that they were spared the damage of the tsunami. Philip’s lower level got hit, and yesterday he was finding most of his power tools damaged by the water, and covered in sludge, but the upper part of their house is fine. Our house (#28)--former Kilbourne house--is about 15-20 meters up from the water, and one of the people who lives at Tak year-around (Rod) actually took a video of the tsunamis (3 of them of various sizes) from our point.
Who knows what to think about the radiation? We keep getting differing reports. Gaius continues to feel that the western media greatly sensationalizes things, and that the danger is less than the fear-mongers would have us believe. We did shut the car windows while driving through Fukushima on the expressway, but haven’t taken any other precautions!
This wonderful nation has been badly shaken--and continues to shake with the after shocks, but we look forward to what God will do here--and trust he will somehow, in his time, bring beauty out of the ashes of this disaster.
Much love to you all, Martha



----------

In the long run even the most despotic governments with all their brutality and cruelty are no match for ideas. Eventually the ideology that has won the support of the majority will prevail and cut the ground from under the tyrant's feet and rise in rebellion to overthrow their masters.
Rvacha
Posts: 8295
Incept: 2008-10-03
Gold
Cleveland
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Autos

ZH:
•TOYOTA SAYS WILL HAVE TO SHUT DOWN N. AMERICAN FACTORIES
•TOYOTA SAYS SHUTDOWNS MAY AFFECT 25,000 WORKERS

Kyodo
http://english.kyodonews.jp/news/2011/04....
Quote:
Nissan Motor Co. is anticipating that its output in April will be just over 30,000 units in Japan, about 40 percent of the over 80,000 units that the automaker had planned to produce before the devastating March 11 earthquake, sources close to the matter said Monday.

Output volume this month may not even reach the 40 percent line as Nissan continues to face parts shortages and insufficient power supplies amid rolling blackouts following the disaster.

Production will be especially hit at its plant in Tochigi Prefecture, where output is expected to total about 300 units, around 3 percent of the initially planned 10,000 vehicles, the sources said.

The plant sources engines from the Iwaki parts factory in Fukushima Prefecture, hit hard by the disaster. The engine plant in Iwaki is expected to resume full operations in early June.

Honda Motor Co. has said its output in April will be half the level it initially planned.

http://english.kyodonews.jp/news/2011/04....
Quote:
TOKYO - Sales of new vehicles in Japan in March plunged 35.1 percent from a year earlier to 437,599 units due to the March 11 earthquake and tsunami that devastated northeastern Japan, marking the sharpest percentage point fall for the month due, industry bodies said Friday.

----------
"I suggest you panic." - Hugh Hendry
Swingtrader
Posts: 9108
Incept: 2007-08-12
Green
United Oligarchic Goldman Sachs States of America
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Quote:
If anyone is interested, here is Andy Xie's take on Japan:


Always interested in what Andy Xie has to say!

Thanks for the post!

----------
Swing said "Well, it is collapsing as we watch.This is what it looks like." Australian federal judge Jayne Jagot, doing what US judges need to do!
Rvacha
Posts: 8295
Incept: 2008-10-03
Gold
Cleveland
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
More on Toyota in the US

http://english.kyodonews.jp/news/2011/04....
Quote:
Toyota Motor Corp. is highly likely to halt all manufacturing operations at its factories in North America later this month due to parts supply disruptions caused by the March 11 earthquake disaster in Japan, company officials said Monday.

Toyota has already halted overtime production and operations on Saturdays at its North American plants following the disaster, but has been continuing to operate using existing inventories during normal hours.

The automaker has apparently judged that continuing production during normal hours would be difficult as parts manufacturers in Japan have been lagging behind in recovering output. The decision is likely to affect Toyota's new vehicle sales in the United States, which is its main market.

The scale and the duration of the expected shutdown have yet to be decided, but all of Toyota's 14 factories in North America could be affected, the officials said, adding that the decision is not finalized.

----------
"I suggest you panic." - Hugh Hendry
Rvacha
Posts: 8295
Incept: 2008-10-03
Gold
Cleveland
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Kyodo: Japan's April-June qtr growth could shrink by up to 1.4 points: OECD

----------
"I suggest you panic." - Hugh Hendry
Top Forum Top Login Control Panel FAQ Register Logout
Showing Page 3 of 6  First123456Last