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| Economic impact of japanese disaster. in forum [General]
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Chimichanga
Posts: 566
Incept: 2011-03-16
Tokyo
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>> Kyodo: Japan's April-June qtr growth could shrink by up to 1.4 points: OECD <<
After the January 1995 Kobe quake (and then the sarin poisoning incident on the Tokyo trains two months later) we were so shell-shocked that people were not buying ANYTHING not absolutely necessary, and you could buy computers at retail prices said at the time to be $100-$150 lower than *manufacturing* costs. No point even to keep the factories open, as for every machine they made they lost money hand over fist.
Some of the main train lines were stopped multiple times a week from people throwing themselves under the trains, especially during morning rush. If you were on certain train lines often targeted by jumpers, you could never be completely sure how long it would take to get to work.
Suffice to say that 1995 and 1996 were really, really bad. As close to Photoguy Bad as I would ever want to get in my lifetime.
Then when we kind of sort of, got a nascent recovery going almost-kinda-sorta, they increased the sales tax nationwide (April 1997) and killed that off right quick. That brought us even closer to hitting Photoguy Bad.
As for consumers snapping their wallets shut, I would think it would be worse this time around, because back then computers were advancing so quickly that *eventually* you would finally say, "OK, OK, I'll get a new one," but for most people nowadays their current machine is fine for their needs (emailing, Internet shopping, TFing, looking up multi-syllabic words like "becquerel").
Should be an interesting year. I have transited through Akihabara a few times but have not bothered to go into any shops yet.
Total non-sequitur: Canadian guy in Akihabara today, taking R&R from deployment in Afghanistan. Tries to find an ATM that will take his Canadian visa card to give him a cash advance but cannot. Calls Canada, asks for locations of machines that will take card. Is given a short list of Niigata, Shizuoka, and Fukushima by Canadian call center. Do they not have TVs in Canada? I was kind of thinking that Fukushima would have made the evening news once or twice by now. But I guess if you REALLY NEED cash then maybe you would... aw, no guys....
Reason: unable to put together a coherent thought today
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Rvacha
Posts: 8319
Incept: 2008-10-03
Cleveland
Online
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Gov't eyes curbing large-lot power consumption in Tokyo area in summer by 25% http://english.kyodonews.jp/news/2011/04....Quote:The government is planning to invoke legal curbs on power consumption by large-lot users in Tokyo and its vicinity this summer as Tokyo Electric Power Co.'s supply capacity is expected to slip far below demand due to damage as a result of the March 11 earthquake and tsunami, government sources said Tuesday. The government is expected to finalize the plan by the end of this week and work with industry groups to arrange a reduction of power consumption by 25 percent from peak demand hours last summer to avoid massive blackouts, the sources said. While talks on the reduction will proceed with an eye on efforts to restore Tokyo Electric's power generation capacity lost after the disaster crippled its Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, it would be the first time for Japan to invoke such compulsory power consumption restrictions since the oil crisis in 1974. March business confidence index undergoes 2nd-sharpest dive http://english.kyodonews.jp/news/2011/04....Quote:The index for Japanese companies' business confidence in March posted the second-sharpest-ever month-on-month drop following a catastrophic earthquake and tsunami, a post-disaster survey by a credit research institute said Tuesday. Teikoku Databank, which began compiling relevant data in May 2002, said the index in its March 23-31 survey came to 31.6, down 3.8 points, a sharp decline following its 4.1-point fall in December 2008 that followed the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. The institute collated the March reading of the diffusion index on the basis of its survey of 10,747 companies nationwide. All of the diffusion indexes for each of Japan's 10 areas fell, with that for the Tohoku northeastern Japanese district shrinking 7.7 points to 24.0, that for the northern part of the Kanto area falling 5.7 points to 28.7 and that for the southern Kanto area dipping 5.6 points to 31.5. All three margins of fall represented a record fall. The northern Kanto area covers Ibaraki, Tochigi, Gunma, Yamanashi and Nagano prefectures while the southern Kanto area covers Tokyo as well as Saitama, Chiba and Kanagawa prefectures. By industrial sector, companies in the retail and services sectors showed especially conspicuous deterioration in their confidence, corroborating fears that the quake would undermine people's desire to buy goods and services. IMHO this is one of the biggest stories to watch. From the beginning of the earthquake there has been an unspoken fear of issuing more debt to help pay for it. Seems to indicate that the government KNOWS it is on the brink Gov't plans not to issue debt for 1st quake-relief budget http://english.kyodonews.jp/news/2011/04....Quote:The government will not issue any new bonds to create the first in a series of extra budgets to finance reconstruction work after the March 11 earthquake and ensuing tsunami, Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda said Tuesday. Jun Azumi, Diet affairs chief of Prime Minister Naoto Kan's Democratic Party of Japan, separately said the ruling party will seek to get a supplementary budget for fiscal 2011 enacted in early May. Kan has said his government aims to submit a draft of the budget to parliament within this month. ''We will cover it on our own,'' Noda said at a press conference, denying any new government bond issuance and suggesting the government would instead secure necessary funds by cutting some policy expenditures in the initial budget for the year through next March. Some ministers and lawmakers have said Japan needs to create two or three extra budgets for rebuilding effort, which could possibly total more than 10 trillion yen (some $118 billion). It has fueled market expectations that the government would have to issue additional deficit-covering bonds, possibly forcing the Bank of Japan to underwrite part of them, a move basically banned by law. There is caution within the government about recklessly issuing bonds even for the purpose of covering emergency public expenditures as Tokyo has been on the road to rehabilitating its fiscal health, the worst among major developed countries, with gross public-sector debt approaching 200 percent of gross domestic product.
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"I suggest you panic." - Hugh Hendry
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Tesla
Posts: 15561
Incept: 2008-04-03
State of Disbelief
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Then they'll be selling USTs...
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"Even a dog knows the difference between being stumbled over and being kicked." -Justice Oliver Wendell Holmes
"Neither the wisest Constitution nor the wisest laws will secure the liberty and happiness of a people whose manners are universally corrupt." -Samuel Adams
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Spanktron9
Posts: 2881
Incept: 2009-03-13
Reality.
Online
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Tesla- No Problem The Ben Bernank is buying.
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"Winter is coming." -Motto of House Stark "Mo'lon La'be"- Leonidas "Strong people are harder to kill than weak people, and more useful in general" - Mark Rippetoe "Its like Calvinball."-MarvinMartian
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Tesla
Posts: 15561
Incept: 2008-04-03
State of Disbelief
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The question for the next several months is...for how long ?
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"Even a dog knows the difference between being stumbled over and being kicked." -Justice Oliver Wendell Holmes
"Neither the wisest Constitution nor the wisest laws will secure the liberty and happiness of a people whose manners are universally corrupt." -Samuel Adams
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Chimichanga
Posts: 566
Incept: 2011-03-16
Tokyo
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When you talk about selling US treasuries, are you talking about SELLING them or simply not rolling them?
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Asimov
Posts: 104697
Incept: 2007-08-26
East Tennessee Eastern Time
Online
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I'd say they'll be selling them before too much longer. Maybe just to the us fed so that it's not market moving, but none the less.
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It's justifiably immoral to deal morally with an immoral entity. If you trade based on what other people say, you will lose money. Especially what I say. I won't be held responsible. Festina lente.
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Rvacha
Posts: 8319
Incept: 2008-10-03
Cleveland
Online
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Japan's 1st quake reconstruction budget to top 3 trillion yen http://english.kyodonews.jp/news/2011/04....Quote:The government plans to craft an extra budget of more than 3 trillion yen by mid-April, without relying on bond issuance, to finance measures to help reconstruct Japan following last month's deadly earthquake and tsunami, a blueprint for the budget showed Tuesday. Around 2.5 trillion yen for the first extra budget for fiscal 2011 will come from funds initially secured to enable the government to maintain the level of the state's contribution to basic pensions at 50 percent, according to the blueprint, a copy of which was obtained by Kyodo News. The rest will be generated by scrapping some of the Democratic Party of Japan-led government's key policies under the initial budget for the year starting April, such as increasing monthly child allowances and introducing more toll-free highways, the draft said. The government had considered drawing up a first extra budget of not more than 3 trillion yen, but it is now seeking to spend slightly over 3 trillion yen, it showed. However, the government will face a difficult process in working out the current plan, partly because some DPJ lawmakers remain opposed to scrapping some of the major policies. The extra budget will mainly finance the costs of clearing rubble and building temporary housing, restoring public facilities and infrastructure, and creating jobs, the paper showed. The government will try to submit the first supplementary budget to the Diet before the so-called Golden Week holidays begin April 29. The emergency spending will most likely be followed by second and third batches, and total expenditures could top 10 trillion yen, according to DPJ lawmakers.
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"I suggest you panic." - Hugh Hendry
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Bezzle
Posts: 15043
Incept: 2009-08-02
Banned
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El Sock-Puppeto exposed and killed by Tickerguy
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Asimov
Posts: 104697
Incept: 2007-08-26
East Tennessee Eastern Time
Online
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Nice video. "Months, not weeks" to restart the plant (makes professional video tape.)
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It's justifiably immoral to deal morally with an immoral entity. If you trade based on what other people say, you will lose money. Especially what I say. I won't be held responsible. Festina lente.
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Vmooper
Posts: 1826
Incept: 2007-11-30
Bailout ville
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Chris Martenson does a good job in this video explaining what Karl said in the ticker link from this weekend on blog talk, there is about to be a huge reversal in liquidity flows when Japan starts to build. Also, he links all the papered over sins from '08 and derivatives as bombs which may explode as output failures start to be experienced around the world. He cited a polymer used in the iPad battery nobody else makes today. http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-tic....Chris sounds like Karl junior in this video. Sorry, Carl's Junior, couldn't resist.
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"If you don't know where you are going, speeding up is not the answer." -Jeff Macke "If you bail out everyone, nobody gets bailed out." -Jeff Macke "Those who make peaceful revolution impossible, make violent revolution inevitable." -JFK
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Spanktron9
Posts: 2881
Incept: 2009-03-13
Reality.
Online
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Vmooper- Not to derail the thread, but I have long believed that CM provides the most balanced non-ideological analysis of the entire collapse. His scientific training really shows in his methodology and presentation. I would really LOVE to see a debate between KD and CM on a number of topics, particularly Peak Oil. I believe that PO is an area that remains a significant blind spot for KD. I've been pleased to observe, what I believe to be, an increased awareness in the inevitable rise of liquid fuels costs, and the need for coherent, aggressive, energy policy. I think the disconnect comes at recognition and acknowledgement of global depletion rates. Not trying to start a war, just a point. Back to the thread.
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"Winter is coming." -Motto of House Stark "Mo'lon La'be"- Leonidas "Strong people are harder to kill than weak people, and more useful in general" - Mark Rippetoe "Its like Calvinball."-MarvinMartian
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Bezzle
Posts: 15043
Incept: 2009-08-02
Banned
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Quote:Nice video. "Months, not weeks" to restart the plant (makes professional video tape.) Years, not months, because I'll bet Sony won't even reopen that blitzed-out factory -- it'd be cheaper and faster to just convert over some other property not in a disaster zone.
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El Sock-Puppeto exposed and killed by Tickerguy
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Asimov
Posts: 104697
Incept: 2007-08-26
East Tennessee Eastern Time
Online
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Probably.
[Edit: Though who knows, they'll probably get lots of encouragement to rebuild there. I'd say tax breaks and stuff are going to be thrown around a lot.]
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It's justifiably immoral to deal morally with an immoral entity. If you trade based on what other people say, you will lose money. Especially what I say. I won't be held responsible. Festina lente.
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Chimichanga
Posts: 566
Incept: 2011-03-16
Tokyo
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One of the reasons at least some major companies have been so close to the water is because of global warming stuff.
Komatsu (bulldozers) built a plant right next to the Hitachinaka, Ibaraki port maybe 2-3 years ago specifically so they could cut down on CO2 emissions in getting their vehicles to port.
No idea about Sony's particular case.
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Bezzle
Posts: 15043
Incept: 2009-08-02
Banned
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 Well, bulldozers weigh a lot more than BluRay blanks!
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El Sock-Puppeto exposed and killed by Tickerguy
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Chimichanga
Posts: 566
Incept: 2011-03-16
Tokyo
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Yup. They sure do.
Komatsu has shifted most everything they can to rail and water-based transport over here.
Over at Hitachinaka they are RIGHT next to the port and IIRC they have a dedicated choo-choo line to take their stuff right into the port, or at least right up to the boundary. They and Iris Ohyama were the first two companies I thought of when the quake hit. Komatsu got "some" of its lines up and running as of the 22nd, so not too bad all in all (depending on the definition of "some", of course).
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Chimichanga
Posts: 566
Incept: 2011-03-16
Tokyo
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In the "that's gonna leave a mark" department... http://www.asahi.com/national/update/040....(Sorry, in Japanese here, but it's in the Asahi, so should be available in English tonight or tomorrow, perhaps in truncated version.) 7 out of 11 major fisheries in Ibaraki are halting operations, because no one wants any of their fish (that is, the markets are rejecting not only the types of fish found with radioactive contamination, but all fish from the area). OK, well predictable enough. However. Chiba fisheries are also suffering reputational damage-- prices down dramatically at the Tsukiji fish market. Markets (Tsukiji and others) are prohibited by law from preventing the fish from coming to market without "just cause" so they have no choice but to allow the catches to be put up on the auction even knowing that demand will be low or non-existent. Ultimately some fish get old and have to be disposed of, so they end up suffering extra costs on top of it all. Ministry of Forests/Fisheries/Agriculture will consider paying compensation for losses. Prefectural map here: http://www.wa.commufa.jp/~eigo4all/maps/....
Reason: added cute map
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Bozonian
Posts: 19962
Incept: 2007-09-01
Saratoga Springs, New York
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I wonder how many insurance companies Bernanke is backdoor bailing out over this?
I haven't seen reports of any more 10's of billions of dollars estimates on the damage any more.
Look for what's NOT being said, people.
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The most expensive thing you can have is a closed mind. -- Geoffrey Filburt
Everything I write is my opinion and not to be considered proven fact. Nothing I write should be considered financial advice.
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Johnny_crab
Posts: 1973
Incept: 2008-10-09
Boonieland south Texas
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We have purchased and do purchase equipment and materials from Japan. Today I get notice that although US Customs already has screening procedures in place, we're getting equipment and training to be able to check incoming stuff from Japan for radiation(overkill but you never know what gets through a gov-sponsored inspection). THAT tells me some folks will be seeking alternative sources of goods and products to avoid possible problems.
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If you want to know truth, start by turning off your television.
"They didn't just***** in the coffee, they took a **** on the hood of a '73 Eldo, let it bake in the DC sun, ground it up and sold it to us as coffee."--Duc888
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Johnny_crab
Posts: 1973
Incept: 2008-10-09
Boonieland south Texas
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If you want to know truth, start by turning off your television.
"They didn't just***** in the coffee, they took a **** on the hood of a '73 Eldo, let it bake in the DC sun, ground it up and sold it to us as coffee."--Duc888
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Rbarreira
Posts: 2826
Incept: 2009-05-27
Portugal -> Sweden
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http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424....Quote:STOCKHOLM—Mobile-handset maker Sony Ericsson Friday said it has delayed the broader launch of its Xperia Neo phone until early in the third quarter due to supply chain disruptions resulting from the earthquake in Japan.
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The company added that it has communicated to its operator customers and distributors that some volumes of its Xperia Arc, Xperia Play and Xperia Neo phones have also been affected by supply-chain disruptions.
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In Soviet Russia, the government regulates the banks.
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Asimov
Posts: 104697
Incept: 2007-08-26
East Tennessee Eastern Time
Online
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Quote:Sony is mulling a complete two-week shutdown of some of its Japan facilities in order to conserve energy amidst power shortages in the country caused by the March 11 earthquake.
After the earthquake and ensuing tsunamis damaged nuclear power plants in Japan, government officials are set to request that large firms cut their energy consumption by a quarter. Tokyo Power Electric fears that there will be about a 20 percent power shortage this summer, a 20,500 megawatt deficit, during the peak consumption months. ... The proposal would apply to 16,000 employees in nine Sony offices in Tokyo and Kanagawa prefecture, but would not include factories, marketing units, and subsidaries. It's not finalized yet; Sony is awaiting approval from labor unions, and certain details are still being ironed out, Minami said.
The aftermath of the earthquake has already disrupted the operations of several tech firms with branches in Japan. Nokia, Research in Motion, and Sony Ericsson have shut down factories, Reuters notes. Toyota has paused production at a majority of its Japan factories and has slowed activity in both North America and Europe. Production has also been halted at both Nissan and Honda plants in the country.
http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,2817,238....
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It's justifiably immoral to deal morally with an immoral entity. If you trade based on what other people say, you will lose money. Especially what I say. I won't be held responsible. Festina lente.
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Asimov
Posts: 104697
Incept: 2007-08-26
East Tennessee Eastern Time
Online
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Quote:Lately we have heard of occasional documented cases of ear canal bleeding exhibited by people who have been listening too long to morons on TV (and in print) saying that the Japanese economic slow down and supply chain collapse won't have an impact on the US Economy, and will, in fact, be beneficial (it's not pronounced Döuche Bengk). To our immense satisfaction we have confirmed this latest outbreak of bacillus idioticus is localized (to below Canal street), is so far not airborne, and is merely contained to the water supply on Wall Street. In a note just released by a far more credible source of analytic information than anything coming out from Wall Street in the past 3 years: Stone McCarthy, we discover just why the cut to Q1 GDP is about to be magnified for Q2 (and quite possibly for the rest of the year). From SMRA: "According to Automotive News, Japan's big seven automakers have lost more than half a million units of domestic production. The most affected automaker is Toyota, which lost 260,000 units since the March 11 earthquake. How about the U.S.? Will U.S. economic output be affected by the supply disruptions to the Japanese auto manufacturers? The answer is unequivocally yes and the economic impact will be quite severe in April and for Q2 as a whole." There, it wasn't that difficult to admit the truth now, was it. http://www.zerohedge.com/article/stone-m....
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It's justifiably immoral to deal morally with an immoral entity. If you trade based on what other people say, you will lose money. Especially what I say. I won't be held responsible. Festina lente.
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Macneib
Posts: 3956
Incept: 2008-01-19
Seoul. What a ****hole
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Had tea with one of the higher ups at a large Korean company on Thursday. He smells blood in the water and will be exploiting this opportunity. He has a list of issues that he claims will put the serious hurt on Japan consumer electronics manufacturers by early July. He also spoke about the Electrical mains in East Japan, which are at 50 Hz and the West of Japan uses 60 Hz. Having the the semiconductor factories go off line is going to hurt a lot of folks around the world. I can't really say much right now.
TLDR; Korean manufacturers will be attempting to secure better market position in light of Japan's disaster.
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The worst thing about crossing a line is when you don’t know, you already have.
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