I haven't cruised through my favorite website to follow Tucson housing numbers in a while. http://www.tucsonazrealestateblog.com/

The last time I did, this article was posted: http://www.tucsonazrealestateblog.com/tu....
Basic jist: He's started removing mobile home numbers because it skewed the average and median prices downward. He's also removed 4 areas outside of Tucson. These changes took place starting with his January statistics.


So now I look at March's numbers so far. Holy crap! The bottom's falling out of Tucson market. Here's what's posted:
March 2011
Last Updated On: Mar, 21
494 Closed Transactions
40 Short Sales
210 REO Sales
$157,926 Average Sale Price
$119,950 Median Sale Price

February 2011
Last Updated On: Mar, 21
789 Closed Transactions
92 Short Sales
297 REO Sales
$186,302 Average Sale Price
$137,500 Median Sale Price

January 2011
Last Updated On: Feb, 14
706 Closed Transactions
86 Short Sales
299 REO Sales
$172,227 Average Sale Price
$135,500 Median Sale Price

REOs/Short sales remain more than 50% of the market.
While the March numbers look bad, they'll likely have more than 700 transactions after all is said and done. The prices will also likely increase some, but will almost certainly be below January's numbers. My guess is that February had a few higher end sales that skewed the numbers - there's been a pretty steady decline in home values here.

One thing that isn't well known in Tucson yet is that Davis Monthan AFB will likely lose ~500 military jobs this year and I'd expect to see quite a few civilian positions go away. This will further depress Tucson's real estate market.

I looked at Tucson home prices the other day. They looked very tempting. But I think that they've got a LOT further to fall, especially with job cuts coming to Davis Monthan AFB.