1.47

Yahoo only goes back 40 years or so on the 10 year chart. Does anybody have any references if I want charts that go back farther?

Chris, That's 200 year low. Never that low since they were ever began issuing.

It's sort of like the olden maps of yore ... ye who venture beyond these charted waters thingy ...

Nanna, I love yore. Just not beyond the charted waters.

Nana, lmao, well put!

And +1 Landshark.

Yea I know we are at an all time low. What I wanted to look at is the generational reversals that happen every 30 years or so. The 80s is interesting to look at but it is a top. I want to see what type of patterns set up a reversal from the lows.

Chris, just be patient, y'all will see that sooner or later :)

Chris, I found this:



http://www.multpl.com/interest-rate/

Compiled by David Shiller:

http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/data.h....

Great find, Colk. Anybody NOT contemplating the implications of that chart has his head in the sand. Nanna, +1!

Great chart. Thanks for posting it.

I expect a lot of folks will be paying attention when that 30 year down trend (in yields) reverses.

If you're smart, you're paying attention NOW!

I should add re-reading Homer's classic "History of Interest Rates" to my summer to-do list.

Thanks for that chart. I'd love to see some analysis by Karl or others who are better at it than me. Karl, there is a full Blogtalk show in that chart. One thing that stands out since the 90's high is the channel of lower highs and lower lows, and the relative violence of the moves in the last 20 years or so. Lordy, when that thing breaks and goes the other way, it will be epic!!...or will it keep going into negative numbers??

Low rates are here to stay until proven otherwise. Time to short something is when everyone wants it. Right now there is still plenty of bond bearishness that needs to wear off.

Quote:

Right now there is still plenty of bond bearishness that needs to wear off.

You might want to check the flows of funds into bond ETFs and mutual funds.

Yes, the bottom in yields isn't "in" yet ... but the spikey action in March-April was a shot across the bow, IMO.

When the market takes out 2 1/2% or so on the 10 year Treasury in a decisive manner, it will get veeeery interesting, I think.

When...

The ten might just stay below 2 for years.

I agree with u mayor

+2 Mayor

It might. But, when that chart reverses, it will be hell to pay.

10 years ago, in the days of the "interest rate conundrum" there were bond bears, today not so much, IMO.

Don't get me wrong, my clients still own plenty of long duration stuff. I'm not recommending it today for new money, however.


N/not investment advice

Nanna- I worked with a guy who like you had long time clients he managed for a regional bank- and he said he always was a strong advocate of having at leat 40 percent if not more of a Portfolio in Bonds and he said after 30 years in the business he is not certain where people should be- he said he just does not know how much longer things can hold together- he isn't a doomer- though he was the most pessimistic about all investments- even in Gold than I've ever seen him

FWIW, the data in that chart was compiled by Robert Shiller, not David. Don't ask me what was going through my head at the time but it's too late to correct now.

Also, the second link has quite a bit of other market related data(Price, earnings, dividend, others) going back to the 19th century available as a spreadsheet for anyone interested in perusing older historical information. This is Robert Shiller of Case-Shiller and there is also some housing data available.

I try to balance my big picture view with the practicality of being measured against the arbitrary best-performing asset class du jour on a day to day basis.

My goal is for me and my people to have a ball to come back and play with tomorrow while producing an income for today.

It's not an easy way to make a living, unless someone is obsessed with markets :)


N/not investment advice


ETA I probably am a doomer since about 1973

30Y 70 points off last night low 10Y 28

Quote:

The Euro is dying and everyone on the Continent is putting their money in US Treasury's. The banking system in Europe must be nearing collapse with this much hot money flowing to bills and notes.

In Southern Europe. The yields for Denmark, Sweden, Switzerland, Finland, UK and Germany are even lower than that. All of them (and also, Netherlands and Austria) presently get paid to borrow after accounting for inflation. It's so bad that Denmark is threatening capital controls to stop money coming *in* to the country -- the inflow of capital is so absurd for such a small country that it's destabilizing.

Basically, the list above is "The European countries that are not immediately ****ed". The rest? Well...

Until proven otherwise, we're in a long term secular bull market for US T bonds.

The Japanese experience seems to be the best analog for what is happening, although there are some differences in culture and demographics. As long as Bennie the thief can just type as many electronic ones and zeros as needed to buy up any excess debt issued by the US, we're never going to see the bond market vigilantes.

There will be periodic episodes of phony economic growth promoted by hope-tards like Mark Zandi. During these "growth scares" the bond market will briefly threaten to break below support. Buying these dips has worked like a charm since 2007- it's the closest thing to easy money there is next to fading an obvious tool like Zandi.

CNBC's Sunday Night crisis show called the bottom of the leg down to the day.