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User Info	2011: Irene in forum [RagingEarth]
Crossthread Posts: 4539 Incept: 2007-09-04 Wilmington, NC Online	Errr, Mike... Quote: noaa changed their charts a bit. I think this will be a windy rainy day for NYC, LI, and Boston... some flooding. But it will be moving too fast. NC and SE VA are gonna be pretty nasty. NYC,LI, & Boston, will have ALOT more than just "wind & rain", Depending how fast this Lady goes, lets say quite quickly, say 30 MPH, the Afore-mentioned areas could very well have a low Cat 3 come through, being in the NE Quad which is BAD, again I cannot stress enough, that as Irene goes chugging up where-ever She Makes Landfall, the Coastal areas, AND areas that are normaly flood-prone are going to be quite catastrophic, your looking at least 3~4 Tide Cycles of Higher than Normal tides because of the New Moon. In addition to the wind(s) being Counter-clockwise, just Keeps PUSHING the water into Interior Coastal areas, even on a outgoing Tide, the water basicly STAYS PUT, and keeps piling up.... Then your RAIN rates possibly approaching 3" to 5 " a hour! In addition, the Hydrology right this moment is SATURATED, Remember the flash floods up there late last week? Killing a few people? ALL that Precip, has to go somewhere...... I don't think it's going to drain out anywhere with Coastal flooding occuring @ the same time. ADD even say, CAT 1 winds, you've got trees/power poles & Lord knows what-ever else, is going to come out/fall over, out of the ground... This could be, or turn out to be a situation with loss of lives, were talking about, If i recall the #'s around 16 million people will be affected? like Katrina, there will be people that cannot leave for what-ever reason, or people that will say, It's only alittle wind and Rain.. Huh huh.... People around these Parts, i hope still remember Floyd... miles & Miles of water Everywhere! Wilmington was a Island honestly, NO-ONE could leave/enter the City because of Flooding for almost a WEEK! Quote: It will be on the order of a really bad nor' easter. 70-80mph winds within 20-30 miles of the center... even if a direct hit on LI or NYC, its just going to be moving too fast. She won't be Moving "To Fast", forecast to go right along @ 15~20 MPH If i recall, (haven't looked @ updates yet), a good 8~12 hours of Sustained hurricane force winds.... This isn't NO Nor'Easter or T-storm for a few hours then it's Gone and Sunny Skies.. TS Force winds for 3~6 or more hours Before you get into Cane force winds! In addition, as a Hurricane comes ashore, the Wind(s) do decrease, BUT, as they do the Wind RADI expands outwards, unless, factors in place which can hold a cane together more than 10 hours from landfall. or going extra-tropical.. (a Couple of cases have had them @ "steady state", OR actually strenghten while over LAND.... I can recall I believe 3 good examples.) Please read below this statement from NHC, and take note what I said above please, because, as Hamburgler commented, You're making some BOLD statements there Son, I agree, those; such as the ones you've made are what make people a Statistic. No disrespect towards ya, OK? Quote: IRENE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A LARGER THAN AVERAGE HURRICANE. IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMIND USERS NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK...ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 4 AND 5...SINCE THE MOST RECENT 5-YEAR AVERAGE ERRORS AT THOSE FORECAST TIMES ARE 200 AND 250 MILES... RESPECTIVELY. More Sampling is in Order.. Quote: SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD 1455Z THU AUG 25 2011 THE 12Z GFS HAS STARTED ON-TIME... WITH 14 ALASKAN...32 CANADIAN...77 CONUS...13 MEXICAN AND 10 CARIBBEAN UPR AIR REPORTS AVBL FOR INGEST. ADDITIONALLY...41 DROPSONDE AND 7 FLIGHT LEVEL RECON OBS IN THE VICINITY OF HURRICANE IRENE WERE AVBL FOR INGEST. Chellie, yes, I will, remember I rode out a Cat 1 on a Dredge Spoil island @ Lockwood Folly inlet, (never again), and experienced every cane here in WILM, since Diane... keeping My eyes over thy Shoulder, a couple degree difference now can mean BIG changes in track down the road.. i'll go down to the beach tomorrow probaly and get some pics.. ;) Post some swells for the Surf Guys here on TF. ---------- “Cognitive Co-Dependency” is when a normal rational person, internalizes irrational illogical presentations, and somehow reconciles them to fit their scripted indoctrination of logical analysis. Quote: Samuel L. Clemens:There is NO Native Criminal Class; EXCEPT for CONgress 2011-08-25 12:38:56 Permalink
Briar Posts: 5371 Incept: 2008-02-07 Palm Springs, CA	Thanks, Chellie! ---------- Religion is what keeps the poor from murdering the rich. Napoleon 2011-08-25 12:39:44 Permalink
Drench Posts: 28631 Incept: 2009-11-10	@CNBCbrk: New Jersey governor signs state of emergency in advance of Hurricane Irene 2011-08-25 12:42:34 From PDA Permalink
Mo Posts: 12158 Incept: 2007-06-26 Pa.	Jersey has problems with all the rain they've ALREADY had. Now comes Irene. ---------- Welcome to Pottersville 2011-08-25 12:44:09 Permalink
Crossthread Posts: 4539 Incept: 2007-09-04 Wilmington, NC Online	Quote: MO:Jersey has problems with all the rain they've ALREADY had. Now comes Irene. Somebody give this man a piece of Humble Pie! ---------- “Cognitive Co-Dependency” is when a normal rational person, internalizes irrational illogical presentations, and somehow reconciles them to fit their scripted indoctrination of logical analysis. Quote: Samuel L. Clemens:There is NO Native Criminal Class; EXCEPT for CONgress Last modified: 2011-08-25 12:47:05 by crossthread 2011-08-25 12:46:33 Permalink
Woeisme Posts: 250 Incept: 2007-12-12 Newport Beach, Cali	Quote: Sunday 8 PM high tide for NYC. Just as the storm is passing overhead. Damn, look at the tidal swing on Sunday. 9ft. in six hours. That's bad. Quote: Bayville Bridge, Oyster Bay, Long Island, New York 40.9033° N, 73.5500° W 2011-08-25 3:04 PM EDT 1.14 feet Low Tide 2011-08-25 7:38 PM EDT Sunset 2011-08-25 9:06 PM EDT 8.11 feet High Tide 2011-08-26 3:40 AM EDT 0.51 feet Low Tide 2011-08-26 6:14 AM EDT Sunrise 2011-08-26 9:38 AM EDT 7.66 feet High Tide 2011-08-26 3:57 PM EDT 0.64 feet Low Tide 2011-08-26 7:36 PM EDT Sunset 2011-08-26 9:57 PM EDT 8.42 feet High Tide 2011-08-27 4:28 AM EDT 0.06 feet Low Tide 2011-08-27 6:15 AM EDT Sunrise 2011-08-27 10:27 AM EDT 8.12 feet High Tide 2011-08-27 4:47 PM EDT 0.10 feet Low Tide 2011-08-27 7:35 PM EDT Sunset 2011-08-27 10:47 PM EDT 8.67 feet High Tide 2011-08-28 5:15 AM EDT -0.36 feet Low Tide 2011-08-28 6:16 AM EDT Sunrise 2011-08-28 11:14 AM EDT 8.55 feet High Tide 2011-08-28 5:36 PM EDT -0.40 feet Low Tide 2011-08-28 7:33 PM EDT Sunset 2011-08-28 11:04 PM EDT New Moon 2011-08-28 11:35 PM EDT 8.82 feet High Tide 2011-08-29 6:00 AM EDT -0.69 feet Low Tide 2011-08-29 6:17 AM EDT Sunrise 2011-08-29 12:00 PM EDT 8.88 feet High Tide 2011-08-29 6:25 PM EDT -0.78 feet Low Tide ---------- ...I am a man of unclean lips, and I live among a people of unclean lips, and my eyes have seen the King, the LORD Almighty. 2011-08-25 12:51:25 Permalink
Lodgerhead Posts: 559 Incept: 2008-08-26 NC	If this thing stays on the current track and intensity, the outer banks of NC are going to get obliterated from Cape Lookout to the VA border. I am packing the truck now and heading that way within a couple of hours. Much to do and little time. Last modified: 2011-08-25 12:52:52 by lodgerhead 2011-08-25 12:52:30 Permalink
Mrbill Posts: 7840 Incept: 2008-10-19 North Carolina	Ah, I guess 11 PM :) It's going to be tough to say whether things hit at low or high tide with only a 6 hour cycle. 2011-08-25 12:53:38 Permalink
Landshark Posts: 11236 Incept: 2008-02-07 The Wild West	000 FXUS61 KPHI 251602 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 1202 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2011 INTERESTING TO NOTE IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG 250 MB JET NORTH OF THE HURRICANE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, GENERALLY FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SOME OF THE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE ORIENTATION OF THIS JET IS SUCH THAT IRENE IS WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION AS SHE TRACKS NORTHWARD. THIS SCENARIO COULD HELP WITH A POLEWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND ASSIST IN THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM AS A WHOLE. ---------- Success in life is a matter not so much of talent and opportunity as of concentration and perseverance. – C. W. Wendte 2011-08-25 12:53:54 Permalink
Mo Posts: 12158 Incept: 2007-06-26 Pa.	Quote: Somebody give this man a piece of Humble Pie! ??????? Here's the Percent of Normal Rainfall in NJ for the last 14 days: ---------- Welcome to Pottersville 2011-08-25 12:59:17 Permalink
Chellie Posts: 1153 Incept: 2008-09-29 Cleveland	Per his Twitter, Jim Cantore is heading to NYC. ---------- "If you want a vision of the future, imagine a boot stamping on a human face - forever." 2011-08-25 13:05:04 Permalink
Erica712 Posts: 1910 Incept: 2009-03-16 Central FL	Ok, guys. My husband's 90 year old grandparents are sitting alone right in the track of this thing (south central NJ, pretty near the coast) I just asked my SIL on Facebook what their plan is, but so far she's at Kohl's now shopping for clothes and complaining about the store music! OMG I don't have TV, so I have no idea what's going on with this storm. All I know is if I were 90 years old, I'd want someone to get me the f out of there, esp since they have no way to get food or anything without the retirement center bus, and I'm sure they have nothing stored. Plus he has really advanced Alzheimers. Looks like she isn't responding to me. (but did respond twice to someone about how horrible the country music in that store was) I think a lot of people are going to get caught off guard by this one. Last modified: 2011-08-25 13:16:30 by erica712 2011-08-25 13:13:30 Permalink
Mo Posts: 12158 Incept: 2007-06-26 Pa.	Erica, why take a chance with a 90 year old? Get someone to take them in, hopefully not in South Jersey. ---------- Welcome to Pottersville 2011-08-25 13:16:00 Permalink
Erica712 Posts: 1910 Incept: 2009-03-16 Central FL	I need to call SIL and give her a kick in the ass. They live a little over an hour from the grandparents, up in Pennsylvania. 2011-08-25 13:18:08 Permalink
Erica712 Posts: 1910 Incept: 2009-03-16 Central FL	Article in our newspaper here says it's predicted to grow into a CAT 4. 2011-08-25 13:27:36 Permalink
Genesis Posts: 130663 Incept: 2007-06-26	Get the ** away from anything that's below 50' of elevation and STURDILY BUILT. It's not the wind, by and large, that kills. Oh sure, it's a damned mess, but it's the SURGE that will really up your day. If you're inland and low, ditto - rain water floods ** too. ---------- I don't care* if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me* Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. *Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.* *What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?* Last modified: 2011-08-25 13:29:02 by genesis 2011-08-25 13:28:30 Permalink
Drench Posts: 28631 Incept: 2009-11-10	@cnnbrk: New Jersey governor: Flooding from Hurricane #Irene could be "a hundred-year event." http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/americas/0.... @cnnbrk: Bahamas reports extensive damage from high winds, flooding in wake of Hurricane #Irene. http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/americas/0.... 2011-08-25 13:28:34 From PDA Permalink
Sharon Posts: 4352 Incept: 2008-02-10 Odessa, Missouri	My daughter is supposed to visit Virginia Beach tomorrow. While it looks like this is well in advance of the storm, it could be pretty unpleasant to be there at the time of an evacuation order--which I suppose would come a couple of days before it hit. ---------- Semper ubi sub ubi. 2011-08-25 13:29:35 Permalink
Sdbn Posts: 387 Incept: 2009-09-13	My in-laws live on one of the smaller rivers that runs into the Mobjack (that then runs into the Chesapeake). It's south of Deltaville, VA and they will not hear anything about evacuating. The water from Isabelle came within 3 yards of the house but they seem to think this is no big deal and will be about the same. So frustrating knowing there is nothing we can do other than keep nagging. 2011-08-25 13:33:29 Permalink
Jeffrey_thomason Posts: 7081 Incept: 2009-03-11	http://www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2011/08/2.... Quote: Hours after a hurricane watch was issued for much of the state's coast, emergency officials expanded evacuation orders to include more than 200,000 tourists and locals in three coastal counties. The areas include the barrier island chain known as the Outer Banks, which is expected to take the brunt of Irene's first hit over the weekend. The governors of North Carolina, Virginia and New Jersey made emergency declarations to free up resources, while the Navy began moving dozens of ships in Irene's path out to sea. And emergency officials all the way to New England were urging residents in low-lying areas to gather supplies and learn the way to a safe location. ... New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg urged residents living in low-lying areas on Thursday to line up a place to stay on high ground ahead of possible evacuations. He said he would make a decision by late Friday on whether to evacuate neighborhoods along the water in several boroughs. New York City's subway stations and tunnels would likely be flooded in places, and officials plan to shut the system down ahead of time to reduce damage to the infrastructure. ... "You want to go into a hurricane threat with dry soil, low rivers, a half moon," New Jersey state climatologist David Robinson said. That is not the case. The Garden State has gotten twice as much rain this month as in a normal August, and high tide happens at 8 a.m. EDT on Sunday, when Irene might be passing by. ---------- When they turn the pages of history, when these days have passed long ago. Will they read of us with sadness for the seeds that we let grow? 2011-08-25 13:34:05 Permalink
Expy Posts: 14671 Incept: 2007-09-05 Start the Demonization -Libtards!	"I think a lot of people are going to get caught off guard by this one." Sheeple will be sheeple. Fun to watch Sheeple... This might be interesting, just don't want it to be interesting for us... ---------- "IT'S THE INCOME/CASHFLOW SILLY"! {c expy } Where will incomes, wages, and profits/revenues come from to recover the economy after the spiral down? Certainly not the "New Service Economy". W/out massive new debt creation, [unlikely], and useful productivity, the public and business are probably screwed by a 2011-08-25 13:37:36 Permalink
Erica712 Posts: 1910 Incept: 2009-03-16 Central FL	They're only 16 miles from the coast! I just looked it up on Google Earth. Manchester, NJ, elev. 138 feet 2011-08-25 13:40:59 Permalink
Mo Posts: 12158 Incept: 2007-06-26 Pa.	Get 'em the hell out of there, Erica. ---------- Welcome to Pottersville 2011-08-25 13:42:02 Permalink
Expy Posts: 14671 Incept: 2007-09-05 Start the Demonization -Libtards!	"My daughter is supposed to visit Virginia Beach tomorrow. "While it looks like this is well in advance of the storm, it could be pretty unpleasant to be there at the time of an evacuation order--which I suppose would come a couple of days before it hit." ...a couple of days before it hit????? I had to go look at the track timeline again... WTF???? Sharon, are you serious???? Is this more of the same nutty stuff you were posting in the Drug Free thread???? Tell me you are kidding. Your daughter will be TRAPPED in the Va beach area! NOT a GOOD place to be trapped! [Today IS Thursday, right???] ---------- "IT'S THE INCOME/CASHFLOW SILLY"! {c expy } Where will incomes, wages, and profits/revenues come from to recover the economy after the spiral down? Certainly not the "New Service Economy". W/out massive new debt creation, [unlikely], and useful productivity, the public and business are probably screwed by a Last modified: 2011-08-25 13:48:10 by expy 2011-08-25 13:42:33 Permalink
Genesis Posts: 130663 Incept: 2007-06-26	138' won't get flooded (unless they're in a local low area where rain gets them) BUT at 16 miles inland they will take the full force of the wind. What's their home built like, and is it designed and constructed to withstand 100mph+ winds for several hours, including most-particularly the windows (e.g. shutters or boards) and THE GARAGE DOOR? If not, get the ** out of there. One of the ways people lose their house in a 'cane is for the garage door (big, lots of windage, not particularly strong for it's span) to fail. The wind then comes right into the garage and blows the roof off FROM THE INSIDE, which is the OPPOSITE direction it's designed to take load from. Then you're *ed as it rains inside for eight hours. ---------- I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me* Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. *Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.* *What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?* Last modified: 2011-08-25 13:44:50 by genesis 2011-08-25 13:43:26 Permalink

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