| User Info
| 2011: Irene in forum [RagingEarth]
|
Crossthread
Posts: 4568
Incept: 2007-09-04
Wilmington, NC
Online
|
Chelli, please,all due respect, you're misunderstanding Me..
When Weather WX Folks say.. "Fish", it means, NO CONUS Hit, or otherwise "Out to Sea"..
I wouldn't wish a cane like this on those folks Down there, Nor Anyone.. God forbid, I don't want to be on a Low Lying Island in the middle of a Intensifying Cane
Unless, Certain Folk(s) were Golfing, or Some critters/Banksta's taking a Vacation down there.
----------
“Cognitive Co-Dependency” is when a normal rational person, internalizes irrational illogical presentations, and somehow reconciles them to fit their scripted indoctrination of logical analysis.Quote:Samuel L. Clemens:There is NO Native Criminal Class; EXCEPT for CONgress
|
Icanhasbailout
Posts: 9939
Incept: 2009-03-10
Imaginationland
|
updated cone shows a virtual direct hit on Martha's Vinyard 
----------
|
Obseedian
Posts: 11872
Incept: 2007-07-26
BBRY Central
|
----------
|
Uwe
Posts: 6458
Incept: 2009-01-03
19446
|
2pm updated cone from NHC.
-Uwe-
----------
“Whenever the legislators endeavor to take away and destroy the property of the people, or to reduce them to slavery under arbitrary power, they put themselves into a state of war with the people, who are thereupon absolved from any further obedience.” - John Locke
|
Icanhasbailout
Posts: 9939
Incept: 2009-03-10
Imaginationland
|
South Carolina warning: Quote:URGENT - URGENT - URGENT (FOR IMMEDIATE DISSEMINATION STATEWIDE)
Warning to all South Carolina residents of a possible hurricane threat. The path of this hurricane is still unclear and may be a threat to our state.
Although meteorologists are predicting landfall somewhere to the north of South Carolina, state emergency preparedness officials are making two basic but important points:
(1) There is no need to panic.
(2) We could all be killed.
Hurricane season is an exciting time to be in South Carolina. If you're new to the area, you're probably wondering what you need to do to prepare for the possibility that we'll get hit by "the big one." Based on experience, we recommend that you follow this simple three-step hurricane preparedness plan:
STEP 1. Buy enough food, beer, and bottled water to last your family for at least three days.
STEP 2. Put these supplies into your car.
STEP 3. Drive to Nebraska and remain there until Halloween.
Unfortunately, statistics show that most people will not follow this sensible plan. Most people will foolishly stay here in South Carolina. We'll start with one of the most important hurricane preparedness items: HOMEOWNERS' INSURANCE: If you own a home, you must have hurricane insurance. Fortunately, this insurance is cheap and easy to get, as long as your home meets two basic requirements:
(1) It is reasonably well-built, and
(2) It is located in Nebraska.
Unfortunately, if your home is located in South Carolina, or any other area that might actually be hit by a hurricane, most insurance companies would prefer not to sell you hurricane insurance, because then they might be required to pay YOU money, and that is certainly not why they got into the insurance business in the first place. So you'll have to scrounge around for an insurance company, which will charge you an annual premium roughly equal to the replacement value of your house. At any moment, this company can drop you like used dental floss.
Since Hurricane George, I have had an estimated 27 different home-insurance companies. This week, I'm covered by the Bubba and Big Stan Insurance Company, under a policy which states that, in addition to my premium, Bubba and Big Stan are entitled, on demand, to my kidneys.
SHUTTERS: Your house should have hurricane shutters on all the windows, all the doors, and -- if it's a major hurricane -- all the toilets. There are several types of shutters, with advantages and disadvantages:
Plywood shutters: The advantage is that, because you make them yourself, they're cheap. The disadvantage is that, because you make them yourself, they will fall off.
Sheet-metal shutters: The advantage is that these work well, once you get them all up. The disadvantage is that once you get them all up, your hands will be useless bleeding stumps, and it will be December.
Roll-down shutters: The advantages are that they're very easy to use, and will definitely protect your house. The disadvantage is that you will have to sell your house to pay for them.
Hurricane-proof windows: These are the newest wrinkle in hurricane protection: They look like ordinary windows, but they can withstand hurricane winds! You can be sure of this, because the salesman says so. He lives in Nebraska.
Hurricane Proofing Your Property: As the hurricane approaches, check your yard for movable objects like barbecue grills, planters, patio furniture, visiting relatives, etc.. You should, as a precaution, throw these items into your swimming pool (if you don't have a swimming pool, you should have one built immediately). Otherwise, the hurricane winds will turn these objects into deadly missiles.
EVACUATION ROUTE: If you live in a low-lying area, you should have an evacuation route planned out. (To determine whether you live in a low-lying area, look at your driver's license; if it says "South Carolina," you live in a low-lying area.) The purpose of having an evacuation route is to avoid being trapped in your home when a major storm hits. Instead, you will be trapped in a gigantic traffic jam several miles from your home, along with two hundred thousand other evacuees. So, as a bonus, you will not be lonely.
HURRICANE SUPPLIES: If you don't evacuate, you will need a mess of supplies. Do not buy them now! South Carolina tradition requires that you wait until the last possible minute, then go to the supermarket and get into vicious fights with strangers over who gets the last can of SPAM. In addition to food and water, you will need the following supplies: 23 flashlights At least $167 worth of batteries that turn out, when the power goes off, to be the wrong size for the flashlights. Bleach. (We don't know what the bleach is for. NOBODY knows what the bleach is for, but it's traditional, so GET some!) A 55-gallon drum of underarm deodorant. A big knife that you can strap to your leg. (This will be useless in a hurricane, but it looks cool.) A large quantity of raw chicken, to placate the alligators. (Ask anybody who went through Hugo. After the hurricane, there WILL be irate alligators.) $35,000 in cash or diamonds so that, after the hurricane passes, you can buy a generator from a man with no discernible teeth.
Of course these are just basic precautions. As the hurricane draws near, it is vitally important that you keep abreast of the situation by turning on your television and watching TV reporters in rain slickers stand right next to the ocean and tell you over and over how vitally important it is for everybody to stay away from the ocean.
Good luck, and remember: It's great living in South Carolina.
----------
|
Creditcalmass
Posts: 1636
Incept: 2008-06-04
New Englands Rising Star
|
Ican: 
----------
"True strength lies in gentleness"
|
Geckogm
Posts: 3723
Incept: 2007-06-26
Canyon Lake
|
Quote:According to the latest computer forecast models, here are the three most likely outcomes:
1) Irene takes an interior track, passing near Raleigh, N.C., Richmond, Va., Washington, D.C., Baltimore, Md., Philadelphia and New York City. This is by far the worst scenario. Winds of up to 100 mph would scream past the Capitol in Washington, D.C. The streets of Philadelphia could be flooded with two feet of rain. Storm surge could raise the level of New York Harbor by 10 to 15 feet, inundating whole neighborhoods, filling the subways with saltwater, and knocking out power and communications to Wall Street. Take a look at what that nightmare scenario might mean for New York City
Thankfully, the latest models are showing a decreasing likelihood that this scenario will happen, although it’s still possible. Because hurricanes spin counter-clockwise, the right-front section of the storm always has the strongest winds and worst weather. A storm like that could shake our economy severely, with many of the major cities taking direct hits and remaining on the right (wrong) side of the storm.
2) Irene skirts the Outer Banks of North Carolina as a monster storm and makes final landfall somewhere from New Jersey to New England. Consensus seems to be gaining that this is the most likely scenario. Since hurricanes need warm water to do their thing, Irene will weaken as it moves northward. However, because Irene will spend more time over the bathtub-like warm water of the Gulf Stream in this scenario, it will likely retain Category 1 or 2 strength when landing in the Northeast.
Right now, the most likely landfall location looks to be somewhere on Long Island, harkening old-timers’ thoughts to 1938, when a major hurricane forever changed the geography of the south shore of the island and decimated the Hamptons. While severe, most of Irene’s effects in this scenario would be localized.
Note to energy traders or those whose businesses depend on energy supply: Just because Irene isn’t traversing the oil-rich Gulf of Mexico doesn’t mean it won’t affect energy prices. Should Irene knock out power to millions of people in Virginia, or Long Island, (or everywhere in between), “demand destruction” would occur, and energy prices could plummet as producers are stuck with excess supply bound for the East Coast.
3) Irene continues the shift eastward and misses the coast entirely, as happened with Hurricane Earl last year. We’ll get quite a scare, but all for naught. This scenario is fairly unlikely at the moment and here’s why:
The difference between this year and last year all centers on a westward shift of the persistent steering pattern known as the Bermuda high. That high pressure system is stronger this year, and therefore more likely to push storms westward toward land.
Last September, Hurricane Earl menaced Long Island with the threat of 110 mph winds, but veered away at the last minute. It’s still possible that Irene could do the same.
Regardless of Irene’s exact path, many coastal areas from North Carolina to New England are expected to receive 10 to 15 inches of rain over the coming days.
Remember, all this remains in flux. This past weekend, Irene seemed destined for Miami, with a repeat of Hurricane Andrew on Floridians’ minds. Tuesday, the forecast track shifted north and east to the Carolinas as Irene dallied north of the Dominican Republic. Last night, New York City was as the track shifted further east with the inclusion of new data from the NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft flying round-the-clock missions through the storm. This morning, weather models have shown a continued creep eastward, but at a slower pace.
The latest run of the GFDL model, based at Princeton University shows Irene digging even further west, fitting more of the first worst-case scenario outlined above.
Meteorologists use these weather models as tools for guidance when constructing a forecast. They’re not intended to replace brains and years of training — just supplement them with teraflops of supercomputing power. You can think of the models as so many darts thrown at a dartboard. Here’s a link to all the latest ‘darts’ plotted on a map of the East Coast As you step closer to the board, it’s easier to hit your target.
The markets don’t typically move significantly for disasters, unless they breach the bonds of what is considered insurable. We might be testing those limits this week.
Meteorologist Eric Holthaus is an occasional contributor to MarketWatch and blogs New York City’s weather at the Wall Street Journal’s Metropolis blog. This week, follow his Hurricane Irene updates (@wxrisk) on Twitter.
Meteorologist Eric Holthaus is an occasional contributor to MarketWatch and blogs New York City’s weather at the Wall Street Journal’s Metropolis blog. This week, follow his Hurricane Irene updates (@wxrisk) on Twitter. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/hurrica.... |
Binney
Posts: 4185
Incept: 2008-08-27
Riverhead, NY
|
oh goody: Quote:Right now, the most likely landfall location looks to be somewhere on Long Island, harkening old-timers’ thoughts to 1938, when a major hurricane forever changed the geography of the south shore of the island and decimated the Hamptons. While severe, most of Irene’s effects in this scenario would be localized.
----------
write-in: Beelzebub
When you just can't vote for the lesser of two evils any more.
|
Truthseeker
Posts: 8479
Incept: 2007-10-07
NorCal
|
Lookout, Binney! Here she comes!
----------
"...But people better realize that the worst-case scenario could actually happen.9/11 happened. This can happen. An economic 9/11, the likes of which we've never seen." Gerald Celente
|
Chellie
Posts: 1153
Incept: 2008-09-29
Cleveland
|
The Marketwatch story is a little outdated. Some of the models are ticking back west on recent runs after pretty consistent nudges east.
I don't know that option 1 looks too valid right now, but we could be looking at option 2 with a bit more westward lean.
----------
"If you want a vision of the future, imagine a boot stamping on a human face - forever."
|
Landshark
Posts: 11317
Incept: 2008-02-07
The Wild West
|
So much for the longer range models. 
----------
Success in life is a matter not so much of talent and opportunity as of concentration and perseverance.
– C. W. Wendte
|
Maynard
Posts: 121
Incept: 2007-11-27
Charleston, SC
|
|
Bogey
Posts: 1302
Incept: 2008-03-12
Montana
Banned
|
Any truth to the rumor that Home Depot is in charge of these models?
Maybe not so much Carolina - they've already got their sheets - but from Norfolk northward, can you imagine the run on plywood going on right now?
----------
I don't mind Obama so much. It's the people in power that I can't stand.
|
Genesis
Posts: 130801
Incept: 2007-06-26
|
Plywood vs 30' surge... 
----------
I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
|
Ape_lincoln
Posts: 764
Incept: 2011-08-04
Ron Paul 2012
|
from DT: on euro Wxrisk.com ‎***12Z EURO ALERT... European Models SLOWS Irene approach to the coast down and is ALSO closer to the coast More west ... Goes over HATTERAS due North CRUSHING HIT to VA eastern shore and Lower MD eastern shore ... OCEAN CITY MD gets really wiped flat. Irene turns DUE NORTH up the 75 west long line. Complete Disaster for Manhattan and New York. http://img684.imageshack.us/img684/3938/....The winds are in Knots. Euro and GFS in agreement. Holy ****, is this actually going to happen? We may aswell call it a double dip if this happens. This is bear porn For those that dont know. Euro is the best model out there. GFS is second. UKMET third!
----------
|
Landshark
Posts: 11317
Incept: 2008-02-07
The Wild West
|
Talk about a **** sandwich.
----------
Success in life is a matter not so much of talent and opportunity as of concentration and perseverance.
– C. W. Wendte
|
Ape_lincoln
Posts: 764
Incept: 2011-08-04
Ron Paul 2012
|
http://i.imgur.com/f4S6U.gifLatest Guidance. BAD NEWS. This is like a little kid has been playing simcity all day and is ready to end the game and go eat dinner. So he starts spawning natural disasters everywhere. He isnt going to bed until its all burning. Im out of posts so, Bill thats the average. The good models are going West and will continue with the new data from the GSV-IV recons.
----------
|
Mrbill
Posts: 7857
Incept: 2008-10-19
North Carolina
|
Not so bad, pretty far east. Eye wouldn't hit much of the east coast, just the outer banks and CT/RI/LI
|
Blackswan
Posts: 5564
Incept: 2007-11-06
Just outside of Philly
|
I remember Floyd. They had boats in Main St Manayunk (Part of Philadelphia next to the Schuylkill River) The power was out and we went down to the bars and drank in candle light and you go out side and see boats in the street where the flooding was high enough. http://philadelphia.about.com/library/co....
----------
“It’s checkmate. Everywhere it’s checkmate.”
Hugh Hendry
|
Landshark
Posts: 11317
Incept: 2008-02-07
The Wild West
|
We're talking Cat 1,2, and tropical storm force winds miles inland from the OB up to NY and points north. Not to mention significant storm surge.
----------
Success in life is a matter not so much of talent and opportunity as of concentration and perseverance.
– C. W. Wendte
|
Uwe
Posts: 6458
Incept: 2009-01-03
19446
|
----------
“Whenever the legislators endeavor to take away and destroy the property of the people, or to reduce them to slavery under arbitrary power, they put themselves into a state of war with the people, who are thereupon absolved from any further obedience.” - John Locke
|
Mrbill
Posts: 7857
Incept: 2008-10-19
North Carolina
|
That ended up being a fake profile. But Krugman did say the Japanese earthquake could end up being a positive for the liquidity-trap economy (wrong diagnosis, wrong prescription).
|
127001
Posts: 3516
Incept: 2008-05-21
|
cat2 storm is still a big storm. Keep in mind, Florida and the gulf coast has seen many many hurricanes and have developed building codes to match them. The buildings that did not meet them over time have been washed away in one storm or another. While a cat2 storm is not catastrophic today hitting the gulf coast, can the same be said for NYC? When was the last time their structures saw the sustained 95 mile per hour winds and associated storm surges being depicted here:  |
127001
Posts: 3516
Incept: 2008-05-21
|
can the subway pump itself dry in the face of that.. if so, where does it put the water? Isn't every utility service underground .. ie underwater?
|
Asimov
Posts: 104066
Incept: 2007-08-26
East Tennessee Eastern Time
|
Just an FYI: Megadisasters is about NYC hurricanes, just came on history channel on the east coast.
----------
It's justifiably immoral to deal morally with an immoral entity.
If you trade based on what other people say, you will lose money. Especially what I say. I won't be held responsible. Festina lente.
|
RSS available
You are not signed on; if you are a visitor please register for a free account!
