That explains it, we truly are Haiti, earthquakes and HurriKeynes in our capital.

Quote:

BEZ:Poer, it would be exceedingly difficult for a hurricane to make a direct hit on lower Manhattan at that intensity, and it requires almost unique circumstances for a storm to arrive at the position without either traversing land in the Virginia/New Jersey region, or colder water.[/b]

Bez, I'm NOT gloating, nor stirring the pot...(I was just "ribbin" ya Earlier, all in fun).
Nor a doomsayer.
Those "Unique Circumstances"? Sadly, May come to fruition.

Holy Mother of God, this a bad path:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cg....

This one's even worse:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.c....

11PM NHC Advisory


000
WTNT34 KNHC 250255
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
1100 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2011

...HURRICANE IRENE DANGEROUSLY APPROACHING THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.8N 75.4W
ABOUT 790 MI...1270 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM ESE OF NASSAU
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.11 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHEASTERN...CENTRAL...AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

INTERESTS FROM THE CAROLINAS NORTHWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRENE. HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES
WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS
EARLY THURSDAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.4 WEST. IRENE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND THEN TOWARD THE NORTH ARE EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF IRENE WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
AND MOVE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...BUT SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. IRENE COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE ON THURSDAY.

IRENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 255 MILES...410 KM.

A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE ESTIMATED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 952
MB...28.11 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE STILL OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEASTERN AND THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY
BEGIN TO INCREASE IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...REACHING HURRICANE
FORCE BY THURSDAY.

STORM SURGE...IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS NEAR THE CENTER OF IRENE...
AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE BAHAMAS.
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DANGEROUS WAVES.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6
TO 12 INCHES OVER THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. RAINS WILL
BE DIMINISHING ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS WITH ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE...BRINGING THE MAXIMUM
STORM TOTAL TO 6 TO 12 INCHES.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY IRENE WILL BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES ON THURSDAY. THESE
SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

11pm NHC Cone.

-Uwe-

I'm posting up something totally NEW, that the NHC/NOAA that is goin to be rolling out Spring/2012, though they are using it now, seeing How it's doing....
From what I gather, it's a tweaked Blend of the Models..
Credits to the poster "Dtk'....

Quote:

the EnKF based forecasts that they are running are using the exact same model as the current operational GFS (though, it's being run on a different machine architecture, used a different compiler, etc.). This isn't quite the same configuration as we plan to implement in spring, as this is a pure EnKF that is being used for the initialization (the model is started from the mean of the ensemble of analyses).

For our spring implementation, the hybrid EnKF-3DVAR will be somewhere in between, where we still run the varational algorithm, but will be incorporating something like 75% of the information from an ensemble-based increment.

From our experience, the EnKF and hybrid-based GFS forecasts have been superior to 3DVAR based runs (well beyond any statistical significance test).

As I was searching for some insurance info I came across this article from 2007. It addresses some issues that several here have discussed over the past few days regarding insurance and hurricanes. Anyone onTF had trouble getting home owners insurance? Interesting how lawmakers state that insurance companies are over-reacting to the hurricane risk in the Northeast.

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/10/16/nyregi....

GARDEN CITY, N.Y., Oct. 15 — It is 1,200 miles from the coastline where Hurricane Katrina touched land two years ago to the neat colonial-style home here where James Gray, a retired public relations consultant, and his wife, Ann, live. But this summer, Katrina reached them, too, in the form of a cancellation letter from their home-insurance company.

The letter said that “hurricane events over the past two years” had forced the company to limit its exposure to further losses; and that because the Grays’ home on Long Island was near the Atlantic Ocean — it is 12 miles from the coast and has been touched by rampaging waters only once, when the upstairs bathtub overflowed — their 30-year-old policy was “nonrenewed,” or canceled.

The Grays signed with a new company, but their case attracted the attention of consumer advocates and, in turn, the New York insurance commissioner, Eric R. Dinallo.

Mr. Dinallo’s sharp rebuke last month of the Grays’ company, Liberty Mutual Fire Insurance Company, reflected a shift in how public officials view a new reality in the homeowners’ insurance business, advocates say.

In the last three years, more than three million homeowners have received letters like the Grays’ as insurance companies, determined to avoid another $40 billion Katrina bill, have essentially begun to redraw the outline of the eastern United States somewhere west of the Appalachian Trail.

Public officials in Southern states from Florida to Texas have been fighting insurance carriers for years over rising rates and withdrawal of services, but officials in the Northeast have only recently joined the fray.

Companies including Allstate, State Farm and Liberty Mutual have “nonrenewed” policies not only in hurricane-battered places like Florida and Louisiana, but in New York and other Northern states that have not seen hurricanes in years. Since last year, Allstate has turned down all new homeowners’ insurance business in New Jersey, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Maryland, Massachusetts and the eight downstate counties of New York.

An independent insurance agents’ group puts the Grays among about 50,000 residents of the New York metropolitan area — and about one million homeowners in the Mid-Atlantic and New England states — whose policies have been canceled since 2004. While most homeowners have been able to find coverage with other major insurers, or with smaller companies, in most cases it is at higher rates and with larger deductibles.

The companies say they are obliged to avoid undue risks where they see them, and to remain solvent. “Considering what happened between 2003 and 2005,” said Robert P. Hartwig, president of the Insurance Information Institute, an industry lobbying group, “and considering that the best meteorological minds are telling us that for the next 15 to 20 years hurricane activity will be heavier than normal, if we didn’t do something to reduce our exposure, we’d be out of business.”

In response to a growing torrent of complaints, state officials and lawmakers have lately begun to push back, if gingerly, against the industry, which they see as overreacting to the hurricane threat in the Northeast. “My concern is that this situation is being manipulated by the insurance companies in order for them to get higher rates,” said State Senator Kenneth P. LaValle, who calls the cancellation of policies in his eastern Long Island district “more than a problem — it is a crisis.”

Mr. Dinallo, the commissioner, has focused his attention on the law: It was a single line in the Liberty Mutual letter sent to the Grays that prompted him to issue his rebuke. The line noted that one consideration in dropping their policy was that they did not have car insurance with the company.

That, Mr. Dinallo said, is illegal. Predicating one policy on another, or so-called “tie-in business,” is a violation of state insurance law, he said. Liberty Mutual said the tie-in was a secondary issue, but in response to Mr. Dinallo’s warning, Liberty Mutual and the largest insurer in the state, Allstate, agreed to stop the practice.

Earlier this year, Richard Blumenthal, the Connecticut attorney general, also challenged insurers’ tactics, subpoenaing records from nine insurance companies that were requiring homeowners to install storm shutters if they wanted to keep their policies. “The insurers are making record profits,” Mr. Blumenthal said in an interview, “and the dire predictions of disastrous hurricanes, fortunately, have been very wrong — fortunately for everyone, including the insurers.”

Meanwhile, heated public hearings were held this year in the Rhode Island General Assembly about the lack of homeowners’ insurance in coastal areas, which include most of the state.

In Massachusetts, New Jersey and New York, lawmakers and regulators this year proposed requiring all insurance companies doing business in the states to set aside billions of dollars to help defray losses from future catastrophic storms.

At a public hearing of the New York Senate Insurance Committee last Tuesday, Senator Charles J. Fuschillo Jr. said the retreat of major home insurers had hurt the housing market. (Home insurance is required by all banks that make home loans.)

“We have people who cannot buy a house because they can’t find insurance,” he said.

Amy Bach, executive director of United Policyholders, a California-based consumer advocacy group, has watched the situation in the East with both professional and personal interest, since the policy on her parents’ Long Island home was recently canceled. Crisis or not, she said, the pattern is familiar.

“Wide-scale nonrenewal has been the knee-jerk reaction of the big insurance companies after every major disaster: hurricanes, earthquakes, wildfires,” she said.

Florida set the pattern for states in picking up the risk shed by major carriers. Its state-created Citizens Property Insurance Corporation, the insurance pool for those unable to find home insurance anywhere else, has become the state’s largest homeowners’ insurer, with 1.3 million policies.

But Massachusetts, last hit by a moderate hurricane in 1991, has also found itself in the insurance business. Its high-risk pool has doubled in size in the last five years, reaching 200,000 policies this year, which makes it the largest single homeowners’ insurance carrier in the state. On Cape Cod, 44 percent of homeowners are covered by the plan.

In New York, Connecticut and New Jersey, the number of people covered by state insurance pools has remained relatively low. The New York plan, known as the New York Property Insurance Underwriting Association, carries about 70,000 policies, most for homes in coastal areas; this year, officials said, the state pool was expecting 10,000 more.

To some extent, insurance brokers in the New York metropolitan area have closed the gap left by the major carriers by finding policies with subprime insurers, also known as the excess and surplus market. Figures provided by the Excess Line Association of New York, a group representing those insurers, show that 7,689 such policies were sold last year, and almost as many, 7,456, in the first seven months of 2007.

Robert J. Hunter, director of insurance for the Consumer Federation of America, said the extent of the retreat by major insurers “will depend a lot on what happens this year, hurricane-wise.”

Insurance companies have condensed their projections of risk, he said.

“They used to project 20 years in the future, but now it is more like 4 or 5,” Mr. Hunter said, a practice that has driven the current pull-back along the Northeast coast, where a big hurricane is overdue, according to computer analysis.

Mr. Hartwig, of the Insurance Institute, said it was more complicated than that. “What insurers are worried about is not just a hurricane in New York, but hurricanes in New York and Florida at the same time,” he said.

Betty Clark, a retired waitress living on a fixed income in a modest house where she raised her children in Eastham, Mass., on Cape Cod, said she had no idea how the tussle between insurance companies and public officials would play out. But after years of paying $742 a year, her home insurance doubled last year, to $1,440, which she would not be able to afford if not for some help from her children.

“I’ve never made a claim in all these years,” she said by telephone. “And yet, here it’s possible I’ll lose my home,” she said.

And not to a hurricane, she added.

Correction: October 18, 2007
A front-page article on Tuesday about the cancellation of several million homeowners’ insurance policies in the Northeast over the last three years because of insurers’ hurricane fears referred incorrectly to the actions of two insurers, State Farm and Liberty Mutual. Although both have canceled existing policies in the Northeast, they have not in fact turned down all new homeowners’ business in New Jersey, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Maryland, Massachusetts and eight New York counties. The article also referred incorrectly to a warning from the New York State insurance commissioner to several insurers, telling them that requiring homeowners to carry other kinds of insurance as a condition of continuing their homeowners’ policies is illegal in New York. State Farm was not among the insurers sent that warning.

Well, I think I am one of the few that can say this. I will have survived Hurricane Irene TWICE.

I just got back from a weeks vacation in Punta Cana (Dominican Republic). Got a pretty close encounter with her there. Nothing too bad.

I live in Hampton, Virginia. Looks like the Outer Banks, NC and Hampton Roads are going to take a pounding from this one.

I will post up pics and info as it becomes available. Tomorrow the hurricane models should come to some sort of agreement.

NYC...

Dakine- whats the model you are working with show for the hampton roads area? (SE virginia)

This may be the actual personification of the term 'skull****ed':

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cg....

Use the +1 button to step through the model progression.

Mo, that model has Florida getting a lot more than others. Not the eye, but the damn thing is gonna be so big post Bahamas that Florida will know it's there.

It shows the west coast of FL feeling the outer bands and rain.

At the end, it shows pretty significant winds and rain into west-central PA.

LI (NYC) "guess-a-mated" surge Map..

Mo- when it comes to NC/VA- distance from shore matters. Crossing the outer banks and crossing elizabeth city and riding up the great dismal swamp... exiting through norfolk and crossing the eastern shore of Virginia seems to be a worst case scenario for Hampton Roads.

(right front quadrant pushing water into the chesapeake bay and tidal surges)

Does anyone have a best guess esimate of high and low tides for sat sun mon?

Here it is for Va Beach...

**** ME... 8pm high tide on saturday...

F 26
High 6:05 AM 3.9
6:29 AM Rise 3:34 AM 13
26 Low 11:57 AM 0.2
7:41 PM Set 5:53 PM
26 High 6:39 PM 5.2

Sa 27 Low 12:48 AM 0.4 6:29 AM
Rise 4:43 AM 6
27 High 6:56 AM 4.4
7:40 PM Set 6:31 PM
27 Low 12:51 PM -0.1
27 High 7:27 PM 5.4

Su 28 Low 1:34 AM 0.1
6:30 AM Rise 5:53 AM 2
28 High 7:46 AM 4.7
7:38 PM Set 7:06 PM
28 Low 1:44 PM -0.3
28 High 8:15 PM 5.5

M 29 Low 2:19 AM -0.2
6:31 AM rise 7:05 AM 0
29 High 8:36 AM 5.1
7:37 PM Set 7:41 PM
29 Low 2:35 PM -0.4
29 High 9:02 PM 5.4

Euro rolling in now...
West shift
DC gets it...

Mike heres a Tide Table(s) link..

http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/tide_pr....

Thanks for the link- that info correlates some of the other stuff I had seen on the tides.

Hopefully this thing hits on a low tide. Norfolk Va floods very easily- as does hampton and Langley Airforce base... going to see MASSIVE damage if this thing comes within 40 miles of here.

Isabel was the last storm to come through and do a good amount of damage. 2.4 BILLION with a B to virginia alone.

cross............ do you have a link to the euro model so I could take a look at it???

Thank you

here ya go
96 hrs
Karl must be Dreaming good Dreams..

Hour 72...

Spazz heres a link, the other is behind a pay wall.. sry..

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/....

Thanks Cross. Please keep me up to date on the euro model. Weather Channel is starting to disagree with the models (except the euro)... they keep wanting to shift it ever more to the left now.

922mb is a pretty strong storm

NO MORE Left/West runs!....
That would likely put ME with in Cat 3/4 Status...
Mind you Hurricane Force winds are like 140 n. Miles across now?
Irene is going through a Eye wall replacement Cycle currently..
AKA ERC