Okay, let's assume for a moment, all the gnashing of teeth is actually warranted this time, and Irene makes a beeline for New York City, pushes a 15-foot wall of water into the harbor and ravages the New England coast.

If the grid is impacted to a significant degree, and transportation grinds to a standstill, unrest in New York could emerge that dwarfs what recently occurred in London.

Here is Wikipedia's account of what happened when the lights went out in New York in 1977:

Quote:

The blackout occurred when the city was facing a severe financial crisis and its residents were fretting over the Son of Sam murders. The nation as a whole was suffering from a protracted economic downturn and commentators have contrasted the event with the good-natured "Where Were You When the Lights Went Out?" atmosphere of 1965. Some pointed to the financial crisis as a root cause of the disorder, others noted the hot July weather. (The city at the time was in the middle of a brutal heat wave). Still others pointed out that the 1977 blackout came after businesses had closed and their owners went home, while in 1965 the blackout occurred during the day and owners stayed to protect their property. However, the 1977 looters continued their damage into the daylight hours, with police on alert.[1Looting and vandalism were widespread, especially in the African American and Puerto Rican communities, hitting 31 neighborhoods, including every poor neighborhood in the city. Possibly the hardest hit were Crown Heights, where 75 stores on a five-block stretch were looted, and Bushwick where arson was rampant with some 25 fires still burning the next morning. At one point two blocks of Broadway, which separates Bushwick from Bedford-Stuyvesant in Brooklyn, were on fire. Thirty-five blocks of Broadway were destroyed: 134 stores looted, 45 of them set ablaze. Thieves stole 50 new Pontiacs from a Bronx car dealership.[1] In Brooklyn, youths were seen backing up cars to targeted stores, tying ropes around the stores' grates, and using their cars to pull the grates away before looting the store.[1] While 550 police officers were injured in the mayhem, 4,500 looters were arrested.

There was no internet in 1977. There was no facebook, no Twitter. In a sense, social media function as an accelerant...a true catalyst if you will, that changes the rate of a reaction--in this case the spread of anger and discontent.

Many would argue that civility is on life support, as revealed in our political discourse, in our media and even in our treatment of one another. If you believe the veneer of civilization is razor thin, could Irene rip it asunder?

Grid down for three days? Wall Street grinds to a halt? Massive flooding? Mass rioting and looting? Obama's last stand? Last straw for the economy? Martial law?

Or a big, juicy nothingburger?

Doomers delight: Assume the worst and make your predictions.

On the other hand, if Irene hooks out to sea, send this thread with it...

If the grid goes down the cell network will soon follow. Yes, they have generators..... which means diesels, which means a TANK full of fuel. In a feral city are YOU going to drive a truck to where the genset is and fill the tank?

That's what I thought.

My guess is the looting contingent of the FSA is already developing their plans.

It'll be a mess.

I spent five years in Jacksonville, FL. Every hurricane season, we watched the meteorologists and local news get hysterical every time there was so much as a fair-sized thunderstorm off shore. There will be looting! Chaos! Mass hysteria! Cats lying down with dogs! Invariably, the storm never touched Jacksonville.

I got used to being the only person who had prepped for a hurricane. Everyone else just ignored the news people.

And then Katrina hit, after days of the same news anchors having hysterics just like always.

Goes to show you, those idiots are wrong... right up until they're right.

@cnnbrk: Atlantic City casinos expected to shut down as Hurricane #Irene approaches. http://news.blogs.cnn.com/2011/08/26/liv....

Cockroaches always come out to play during a crisis, nothing new there.

CNBC: NYSE plans to be open as usual Monday morning

CNBC: Atlantic City gaming suspended starting noon tomorrow.

From a CNN article titled, "What Irene Could Do To New York".

Quote:

According to a CNN/ORC International Poll, 45% of Americans say they have a stockpile of food and water in their homes in case of a terrorist attack or a natural disaster like a hurricane or earthquake.

Those figures are highest in the South and the West -- where hurricanes and earthquakes are most frequent -- but only 36% of Northeasterners say they have emergency supplies of food and water.

Let me get this straight: 64% of Northeasterners have no emergency stocks of food or water. The power goes out, and all public transportation is shut down. This will work out well...

@CNBCbrk: Progress Energy: As of 8:30 a.m., 200,000 customers w/out power. Continues to fluctuate. #irene

Blast from the past,...anyone remember these guys?

http://interdictor.livejournal.com/88989....

Chesapeake Bay Tunnel closed due to weather

http://www.radioreference.com/apps/audio....

Shouldn't Northeasterners have some canned goods in case of a major blizzard?

@cnnbrk: RT @CNN: CNNMoney: Hurricane #Irene may cause gas price spike: http://money.cnn.com/2011/08/26/news/eco....

@CNBCbrk: ConocoPhillips has shut down its 238,000 barrel-per-day Bayway refinery in New Jersey, as a precaution ahead of Hurricane Irene.

Quote:

Shouldn't Northeasterners have some canned goods in case of a major blizzard?

No, we prefer french toast made from fresh ingredients during blizzards.

-Uwe-

"Irene: Financial, Political and Social Implications."?

Nothing. This is no more than a lot of rain and some wind, a strong tropical depression by the time anyone in the NE Corridor experiences her.

Total over-reaction b.s. because it hits the USA major media and political class.

Hey Ben, wasn't it less than a month ago that China evacuated several hundred thousand people from low-lying areas for a typhoon which ended up missing China completely?

-Uwe-

THIS STORM IS AS BIG A NOTHINGBURGER AS BERSPANKME'S JACKSON HOLE SPEECH!!!

The media now look like goof balls - especially the clowns in New York waiting for the WORST STORM IN CENTURIES to bring in a few blowing sprinkles.

hahahahahahahahahhaha ha

Uwe,

Didn't actually miss, but was downgraded to a TS prior to making it to China. Sounds vaguely familiar...
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pac....

Going back a couple of years, here is another that didn't downgrade. Note the nearly 1M people evacuated...:
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,5385....

Some fun reading in regards to Chinese lessons learned in regards to evac planning:
http://leiden.academia.edu/XiaoliLu/Pape....

If a storm this size was gonna hit KD on his coast with an 8 ft storm surge would he be calling it a "nothingburger?"
Would he devote a ticker to a nothingburger ?
There is gonna be serious flooding from NC MD VA Phili Jersey NY and much of New England. A LOT of people live in the target zones.
This thing is just getting started and will be far from minor especially if NYC lowlands gets 8ft surge and is non livable for a week or more.

If NYC actually gets 8ft of surge it's going to suck pretty severely.

If.

Buoy in front of the storm is saying winds 38 mph ESE and gusts up to 49mph.

Quote:

Nothing. This is no more than a lot of rain and some wind, a strong tropical depression by the time anyone in the NE Corridor experiences her.

Hysteria has momentum. Three days ago, forecasters were talking about an epic storm...Category 3, rising to a Cat 4, and perhaps going into New York as a strong 2. Totally different narrative...and likely a totally different result.

In the absence of a surge and subsequent flooding, the remaining risk is social unrest...crimes of opportunity, or any excuse to loot.

Any significant impact and enduring effect on the grid could change the game...

It's a nothingburger... unless it isn't, with the surge and power failures etc.

"Indirect" costs can be substantial. When viewed in hindsight, the cost of taking precautions may be considered excessive, and could well hurt preparedness eforts in the future:

Quote:

New York economy takes MULTI-BILLION hit from Irene on vital weekend... as experts warn U.S. clean-up cost will outstrip Katrina

Last weekend of August is usually key for New York's $1.4tn annual output
But direct hit would have flooded subway and acres of expensive real estate
Damage cost of Hurricane Irene across East Coast estimated at up to $45bn
Non-functioning economy in New York for four days will have huge impact
Insurance premiums will rise and businesses across the city have suffered

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-....