The system likely to become the next named storm in the very busy (but so far relatively uneventful) 2011 season is a long way away out near the Cape Verdes, but also deep in the tropics, under 10N latitude -- a placement which increases the chance of a long-track major hurricane.

Fun!

If it gains that much latitude that far out the odds of it spinning fish are quite high.

That's what I expect and hope...

NHC and some other credentialed mets are saying wait and see on the "fish" call. Need another few days to see how the troughs over the US model out and the high to its north. Climatology favors fish but its not a done deal yet....could be an interesting next week!

total

Way too early to call it a nothingburger.

But it makes more sense to call THIS one a nothingburger, than one that's killed 38 people and left 7 million without power...

Touche'!

Gen, what is "spinning fish"?

Fraudster: refers to 'canes that don't come ashore. They're just a menace to marine traffic===and fish!

"Spinning Fish" is a term for a storm which stays over the ocean, i.e. never makes landfall.

-Uwe-

Edit: Dang, Truth beat me to it by 18 seconds.

Hmm, http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tra....

Could be another Irene, though it looks like it may be stronger.

VERY unlikely unless it stops gaining latitude like now.

Last nights discussion speculated on a possible turn west at day 5:

THE TREND IN THE MOST RECENT MODEL RUNS HAS BEEN TO
WEAKEN THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 30N55W AND LIFT IT OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST SOONER THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS RESULTS IN LESS OF A
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WHICH IS ALSO FORECAST TO
CHANGE ITS CURRENT NORTH-SOUTH CONFIGURATION TO AN EAST-WEST
ORIENTATION BY 72 HOURS. THIS CHANGE IN THE STEERING FLOW SHOULD
KEEP THE CYCLONE MOVING ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT
4 DAYS...AND THEN SLOW DOWN AND POSSIBLY TURN MORE WESTWARD BY DAY
5 AS A NARROW RIDGE DEVELOPS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE SYSTEM.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2011/al1....

Ike and Andrew both curved back westward. Luis did as well but ended up turning north and not hitting the coast.

A blast from the past:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atla....

Euro and GFS say no bueno on that recurve, Irene like repeat. Westward it is.


Also Homebrew storm alert, forming in Bay of Campeche in the 48 hours heading toward Lousiana!

Yeah, I see that Bay of Campeche thing.... I don't like that one at all.

It would almost seem like there's a prize for the earliest "nothingburger" call...

The Irene nothingburger is tasting rather meaty, unfortunately...

Looks like a piece of old Frontal Boundary turns cyclonic, yea I dont like that either.

Yeah, the bad news is that the water in the gulf is hotter than hell this year, and this time of year generally. If it gets spun up and the shear remains low it could blow up into a monster with very little warning.... and once those get into the gulf they're going to hit SOMEONE.

Mother nature cant be manipulated by the fed. Atleast not yet.

I gotta agree on the "too early to call nothingburger" thing. The models are picking up on some changes down the road which might...MIGHT...bend it westward. You have to remember early guidance had Irene in the SE GOM instead of headed where it did. Too far out yet to call at this point.

@cnnbrk: Tropical Storm #Katia forecast to become major #hurricane. http://news.blogs.cnn.com/2011/08/30/tro....