Is there a 'public 8 hour timeout box' for the folks who claim 'Nothingburger' with no factual evidence or basis besides a Global Warming kind of mentality or just trying to be disruptive, mean, or stupid?

Ask them to defend their position on the point with facts and if not, swish, to the TO box with a dunce cap and their name on it for a couple hours.

If they show no remorse then escalate their lesson with a virtual groping by the TSA.

If they Still don't shape up then they get to enjoy a 3-way with Janet and Barney.

That should end all their stupid, for at least a day, until the smile comes off their face and they decide to go internet postal again.

Well... Irene did turn out to be a nothingburger for a lot of people who were allegedly to be hit hard by it (such as those of us in Virginia). I was expecting gale-force gusts and torrential rain, and I got 12 hours of light drizzle and not enough breeze to justify clearing objects from the porch. Of course, folks in Vermont can't say the same, but I didn't hear much in terms of warnings for them. The wrong set of people got warned.

We've had plenty of storms that I though would get us that didn't even provide a good soaking rain.

Then there are those that lived up to their billing.

Really hard to tell with certainty this far out...

Karl... keep us updated on the Bay of Campeche one. I'm headed down that way tomorrow - just want to keep an eye open for my return flight. Thanks!

I don't think it's going to spin up, but you never know...

Models are pretty consistent with aggressive development on the BOC disturbance. Also noticed yet another tropical cyclone behind Katia at the end of the last GFS run.

Anything to the low SSW of Cuba? If it moves out into the Central Gulf, the GOES East Water Vapor loop makes it look like it could sweep back across North Central Florida...

Look at that Gulf storm at the end of the GFS loop: first it has its way with New Orleans, then god knows where it's going at the end.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cg....

That's not a particularly-potent thing.... would probably get us wet.

I wouldnt be so sure. Looks like a ridge is building in the C Atlantic. I think Katia may be a CONUS event. Models are going westward. NOGAPS shows that ridge keeping it from recurve, aswell as another system behind it.


Perhaps the 2004 pattern is repeating.

Karl may have been referring to the CB storm, though the latest GFS run shows it getting tighter as it gets close to the Fla panhandle. Latest NHC shows Katia with a more pronounced northward turn. With the ridge building in the north and possibly effect of L(?) a westward turn is feasible.

With Katia coming from the east and L(?) storm coming from west will be interesting to see how they interact with each other (Fujiwhara effect.)

This article talks about one hurricane tailing another. Not sure about this situation where they are coming from opposite directions. Sling shotting each other up the coast would be a bad scenario. Presumably their interaction with each other will weaken both as the article below points out.

http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?....

Update invest 93L, just tagged


According to the Euro & GFS. Lee is going to be an absolute monster and is going to ruins someones day in the Central or Eastern GOM. That is someone concerning because now the models can accurately initialize it. Before we were just speculating, now we can confirm it. Euro double runs in a row show a stalled CAT 3 or4 about 200 miles east of Houston.


We also have...confirmed hard left turn as ridging is building back in the Central Atlantic. Katia will not be a fish spinner im afraid the way models are trending, it seems to be channeling the path of Isabel and I fear its yet another east coast bound storm.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/e....



We also have something right behind Katia that looks to take the ridging straight to the CONUS AGAIN according to longer range models. Basically a Pain train if the ridging happens in the C. Atlantic.

Things are heating up!!! lol

GFS has this drowning New Orleans, Mobile and Atlanta. New Orleans especially:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cg....

Wow Mo, New Orleans just got wiped off the face of the earth. That will be a Cat 4 in those waters.


Euro bombs it out down to 968mbs

Nah....it looks like a lot of rain and some wind.

The area is droughty.

It might be a good thing.

Or...it might be too much of a good thing.

Katia will probably be a hurricane by 11pm tonight, if not at 5pm today. She's building an eyewall and looks good on satellite.


The invest approaching the GOM will need its own thread very shortly. That one should be interesting.

We need the rain bad in the ATL. I have never seen my maples drop so many leaves in AUGUST. Trees are distressed significantly here.

Mo: That little thing over NO? It'll rain.

Oil companies evacuating personnel due to the Gulf storm threat:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/08/3....

Quote:

(Reuters) - BP Plc on Wednesday became the first major oil producer to say it was evacuating some workers from Gulf of Mexico oil and gas platforms because of a tropical disturbance that could become a named storm this week.

Later on Wednesday, Anadarko Petroleum Corp joined BP saying it has evacuated non-essential workers from three platforms in the Gulf.

Royal Dutch Shell also was preparing to evacuate some workers and expected to decide whether to move forward with that during the day, spokeswoman Kelly op de Weegh said.

Shell was monitoring the system over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the eastern Gulf. The National Hurricane Center said the weather formation had a 30 percent chance of becoming a cyclone in the next two days.

Chevron Corp, Exxon Mobil Corp, ConocoPhillips and Apache Corp also said they were monitoring the system.

BP, the biggest oil producer in the Gulf with eight company-operated oil and gas platforms, said it was evacuating from five platforms more than 500 "nonessential" workers, or those not directly involved in production, such as cooks.

(...)

Upgraded to Hurricane

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/44326779/ns/....

looks like it might hit....

According to StormPulse that low in the Gulf has a 70% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone, and almost all paths have it slamming directly into either New Orleans or Houston. "Lee" or whatever they name it could get very interesting very fast.

Quote:

Ican:Well... Irene did turn out to be a nothingburger for a lot of people who were allegedly to be hit hard by it (such as those of us in Virginia). I was expecting gale-force gusts and torrential rain, and I got 12 hours of light drizzle and not enough breeze to justify clearing objects from the porch. Of course, folks in Vermont can't say the same, but I didn't hear much in terms of warnings for them. The wrong set of people got warned.

hence the "Cone of Uncertainty" that accompanys NHC Forcast(s)..
If you happened to notice, it WAS NOT the NHC "hyping" forcasts's..
It was Accu-Weather/TWC, respectivly.
With other MSN outlets with their own "forcaster's" playing out the Worse case analyses. Ratings Mean everything.
BOT....
********************************
Katia....

Is experiencing light to moderate shear ATM.. plus a big Gulp dry air intrusion, Hindering it's intensification abit for a Short time..
Right ATM, I'm assuming a Probility of around 20% or so of a CONUS hit..Though for now
I'm having very low confidence, that generaly Katia is a recurve ATM..(FISH)
That being said,Katia on a track similar to Hurricane #4 in 1893, with a wider recurve/turn, Taking the Storm to Landfall on or about the Delmarva Peninsula. Givin the Model Data and Climo, suggest's a track closer to Luis (1995) and possibly between Luis and Earl (2010).
Though remember, Katia is still Way out der!, it can change!
Expermental Model Pic/track..
******************************

Invest 93L..
We may we have a surface low forming around 26N/90W this morning..

Track could be anywhere from Florida to Mexico, depending where "genesis" of the Cyclone Begins/happens.. Plenty of Model confusion at the point in time..
I'll say this, Texas NEEDS the rain..
(theres a Wishcast for ya)..
Recon is on deck for this morning..
For those rooting for detruction, here model PRON for ya, Image below.
*******************************
Who will become *LEE* first?
*******************************
Invest 94L
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al942011.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201109011236
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 94, 2011, DB, O, 2011090112, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL942011
AL, 94, 2011090112, , BEST, 0, 375N, 637W, 25, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
wouldn't worry about it

94L doesn't look like much right now