This'll the next one:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/flas....

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.c....

Now this one needs to go through NYC.

Most models continue to show an island hit.

Judging from appearance, 95L will be upgraded by the 5pm:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/flas....

NHC Forcast has it going through a Herbert Box 2pm Saturday.

Form A very well respected MET..
Credits Don Sutherland

Quote:

Some historical climatology data with respect to the region in which TD 14 formed (11.8N 37.0W):

Since 1950, 8 tropical cyclones formed in the region bounded by 9.8N-13.8N/34.0W-40.0W on September 6 +/- 20 days. A day outside that range was Hurricane Chris (1988), which peaked at Category 1 and recurved and Hurricane Andrew (1992), which made U.S. landfall as a devastating Category 5 hurricane.

Of the eight relevant storms, 3 (37.5%) made U.S. landfall. Those storms were Inez (1966), David (1979), and Frances (2004). 5 (62.5%) avoided U.S. landfall. The landfall percentage is 50% higher than that for all tropical cyclones that formed in the 34W-40W region on September 6 +/- 20 days. IMO, from that pool of eight storms, there are five analog candidates at this time (shown chronologically):

1. Flossie (1978)
2. David (1979)
3. Danielle (1998) **the solution closest to that shown on the 9/6 18z GFS**
4. Erin (2001)
5. Frances (2004)

In terms of peak intensity, 87.5% of the eight storms grew into hurricanes and 62.5% were major hurricanes. 50% were either Category 3 or 4 storms at their peak. From the smaller analog pool, 40% of the tropical cyclones made U.S. landfall and all five storms were hurricanes. 60% of the possible analog storms were major hurricanes. Based on this information, historic climatology suggests that TD 14 will likely peak as a major hurricane. There is some chance albeit a smaller one than had been the case for Katia that the storm will peak at Category 4 strength.

Sutherland's analog routine is worthless; it simply matches dates and formation regions rather than conditions, and so misses a lot. And myriad applicable storms won't be included because the NHC waited a day to upgrade a blob to a TD, and during that time it traveled several hundred miles farther west across the open ocean.

-- What's important for analogs:
* date
* location
* movement vector

The last one is the most important because it gives you relevant information about the surrounding atmospheric situation. I.e., a due westbound Cape Verde system is MUCH more likely to become a category 5 Caribbean mauler than one which is projected to move WNW and miss the Lesser Antilles.

Maria is currently moving so slowly that there is an increasing chance she may miss the trough developing over the eastern US, and become trapped under the ridge behind it.

Maria is toast. No UL ridge to the north combined with a strong trough already making its presence known to the south will shear her off to the NNE. Cape Verde season is just about done, time to watch the western Caribbean.

Never say never.

It's a 'cane...

This is shaping up as one of those borefest years where nothing happens despite dozens of storms until the surprise cat-5 in late October.