AccuWeather.com Winter 2011-2012 Forecast: Another Brutal One
By Heather Buchman, Meteorologist
Oct 5, 2011; 5:00 AM ET

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The AccuWeather.com Long-Range Forecasting Team is predicting another brutally cold and snowy winter for a large part of the country, thanks in large part to La Niņa... yet again....

The way the jet stream is expected to be positioned during this winter's La Niņa will tend to drive storms through the Midwest and Great Lakes. Last year, the jet stream steered storms farther east along the Northeast coast, hammering the Interstate 95 corridor.

Therefore, instead of New York City enduring the worst of winter this year, it will likely be Chicago.

"The brunt of the winter season, especially when dealing with cold, will be over the north-central U.S.," stated Paul Pastelok, expert long-range meteorologist and leader of the AccuWeather.com Long-Range Forecasting Team.

Chicago, which endured a monster blizzard last winter, could be one of the hardest-hit cities in terms of both snow and cold in the winter ahead.

AccuWeather.com Long-Range Meteorologist Josh Nagelberg even went so far as to say, "People in Chicago are going to want to move after this winter."...

More, including great graphics: http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/st....

Al Gore, can you spare me a heater for my apartment?

Al Gore, you're needed to fart a few more times.

WooHooo! I love La Niņa!

Last year's ski season was one of the best on record.

It was 91 on Friday. Tonight...18" forecast for the mountains!!! WoooHoooo!

I hope it dumps an assload of snow here. Past two years we have had decent snow.

Just damn....

Last Winter was almost bad enough to run me off to Florida from VA.

I could really use a lite snow winter....alas we will be inevitably pounded again. Just hold off till at least the end of the month or further into November this year please, pretty please.

ha, I'm surprised this projection hasn't closed schools today in NC. The mere threat of snow here shuts down the State.

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alas we will be inevitably pounded again.

Well... you are in North Dakota...

If these are the same guys that do the long range hurricane forecast, I'm putting in a case of tanning butter.

Makes you wish global warming would hurry up doesn't it? lol

I need to find out where to buy kerosene locally.

Has me looking at my woodpile wishing it were bigger. 3.5 cords might not do it this winter...

Earliest snow in Tahoe in 42 years. Shortest time between spring and fall snowfall ever recorded. 96 days. First sign of impending ice age? Shorter cooler summers. This is just the beginning stages.

Enapa, we set heat records all over my state this summer. It was miserable. I can only dream of shorter cooler summers.

Truth. Are those face cords or cubic cords?

I woke up to snow. The foothills are white all the way down to where the houses start. Alta picked up 15 inches. 35 forecast low for my neighborhood tonight. I still have lots of tomatoes on the vine.

Why has there been an avg high of 80 here for the last month no rain either. Not complaining mind you but it is rather unsusual for Kansas City. I love it. The last time we had a fall like this it was in 1979 and the following summer of '80 was a scorcher. Triple digits in the teens for 3 weeks in a row.

I don't remember the winter season. Must be a reason for that.

I think it was the winter of 1979 that had so much snow in Chicago, it affected the mayoral election.

Could go on for decades. Something I have been watching since last year, how the jet streams are linked to the solar cycles and solar winds.

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2011/06/14/....

I'm starting to believe the changes in geomagnetic energy affect people's behavior too. There are a few interesting papers on pubmed.gov.

Kwerk-
I would definitely agree about the behavior link, as many years ago I started to observe populations of people having very similar maladies and attitudes...but only for a brief period...and in varied locations.
Got me looking at magnetics and lunar and solar cycles, along with many other things.
Still nothing conclusive, other than to say that we are run by a whole lot more than we think we are....we are not as much the independent/free will beings as we'd like to think we are. Ha!

More news:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-enviro....

A couple decades of droughts in Russia/US, floods in S Asia, more tornadoes in the midwest and brutal winters in Europe and the NE.

Oh and significantly fewer growing days for farmers.

Sloonie this one is pretty interesting.

http://0-www.doaj.org.lib.hksyu.edu.hk/d....

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Using data on suicide terroristic attacks in Israel, Iraq and Afghanistan (1062 cases 1994-2008) it was found that certain patterns of heliogeo-physical factors were similar in all countries studied, and typically accompanied such acts. Geomagnetic activity significantly increased (p<0.0001) at the day of attack and at the next day following attack. Interplanetary magnetic field polarity tends to change at the day before attack (p<0.03) and at the day after attack (p<0.007).

Suicide rate in Japan affected by sunspot activity:
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16826....

Exposure to solar activity may be associated with incidence of depressive and manic disorders.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20919....

Whewt,

Full cords. 128 cubic feet each (4x4x8).

Just cut another 3/4 cord over the weekend. I'll break out the splitter for another day or five before winter's over, I'm sure.

I think AccuWeather is just flipping a coin, and guessing based on the ongoing lack of sunspots and extrapolating from last winter.

-- yet I'm seeing signs of an El Nino brewing in the eastern Pacific (which is where these things always begin). Take a look:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/tpac/f....

...what's different?

For starters, we have Mexican Pacific hurricanes moving east onshore -- this is incredibly rare. Second, the trade-winds below 20N and out to 150W (nearly to Hawaii) are basically non-existent -- it is these trade-winds which are responsible for stoking the Pacific equatorial current which transports warm water westward and prompts cool upwelling along the South American coast; shut it off, and the warm water piles up in the eastern Pacific.

So Bez, what's that mean for the winter outlook? Please say Mid-West temps above avg and percipitation below avg. I know, bad for crops, but I hate winter.

Had a smidgen of rain yesterday, just enough to settle the dust. Still very warm.

Kwerk- Thanks for the links!
Fascinating world isn't it?