In the Accu-Weather thread I noted the possibility of an abrupt reversal into El Nino and a mild-winter. Now factor in the "Canada Snow-Drought":

Quote:

http://minnesota.publicradio.org/collect....

You have to go a long way north to find snow on the ground these days. I mean a really really long way north.

Check out the latest snow cover map from NOAA. You can see there is virtually no snow cover on the ground in Saskatchewan or Alberta.



In fact you could drive (or fly) about 1,000 miles northwest of the Twin Cities and see nothing but green prairie. You have to go all the way to Great Slave Lake in the Northwest Territories to see continuous snow cover.

Climatologically speaking, there should be snow cover all the way south to the USA-Canadian border by now.

Mild November ahead?

It's a bit of chicken and egg; is the lack of Canadian snow cover contributing to our mild fall, or is there no snow because jet stream patterns this fall are so mild?



Either way, it looks like the trend may continue. Here's what I see looking at the medium range forecast maps through mid November:

-Temps 3 to 6 degrees milder than average overall

-Milder than average spells Thursday-Sunday. A shot at 60 Saturday? Also milder Nov 10-14th. (GFS forecast 50 degrees on November 14th)

-Brief cooler spells today, Nov 7th-8th, finally colder around November 15th-18th?

-Little or no snowfall through November 14th

CPC Outlooks: Mild, not wild

So far the CPC outlooks for November agree with a continued mild trend.





Old man winter may be lurking, but he's nowhere in sight just yet.

We're having cold fronts in central Florida since late October. Not usual here. And they just had a record breaking snowstorm in the northeast on Halloween.

It may be warm in the north-central region, but it's not elsewhere.

Seeing any moisture for Central Texas, or are we going to be dry as bones?

You have to go along way north alright, as in all the way up to Flagstaff, Arizona.

Or Snoqualmie Pass, WA.

Was it just me or was there a huge ****ing snowstorm on the East Coast last that brought some of the earliest measurable snowfall on record?

Thanks, Bezzle.

I know that we have some storms (finally) for the next day or two. Just didn't know if we're expected to continue the drought through the winter. Are NOAA's longer-term forecasts reliable?

Note that the northeast is more likely to be snowier in an El Nino winter (as the split jet-stream patterns over the central part of the country tend to reconverge in Nor'easters just off-shore).

This doesn't look like an El Nino to me:

Just checked the webcams or recent photos at all the following locations:
AZ Snowbowl
Snowbird
Taos
Telluride
Jackson Hole
Sun Valley
Mt. Baker
Timberline, Mt. Hood
Mt. Shasta
Mammoth
Big Bear


Looks like snow to me, but don't let that ruin a good NOAA scare article.

http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/snow_model/im....


Hmmm, more snow.

my Woolly Worms say...narrow Brown bands, Cold & Harsh..

Quote:

Dr. C.H. Curran, former curator of insects at the American Museum of Natural History in New York City, tested the woolly worms' accuracy in the 1950's. His surveys found an 80% accuracy rate for the woolly worms' weather predictions.
http://insects.about.com/od/insectfolklo....

Mountain-peak ski-resorts are negligible factors in area-wide albedo. For deep winter to be brutally-ass cold, you need a solid cover of snow over all low vegetation over the bulk of the continent. For the Great Plains & Canada, that means 8 inches or more. You can get isolated big storms, but they'll quickly melt away if the surrounding area is barren (this happened twice in 1988 in the Twin Cities, when we had our biggest blizzard in history on Halloween; it completely melted by late-November before another huge blizzard, which in turn completely melted for a brown Christmas).

Lack a continental snowpack, and the winter will be 30s for highs and 10s for lows instead of 0s for highs and -20s for lows.

Sorry dude, but at least up in the real north, snow pack warms things, and saves the ground and plants/foliage.
We are a little low in snow at the moment in the Yukon, but more expected this week.
Snow is an insulator. Remember that.

I'm OK with a warmer than normal winter. Trust me the heating bills will be lower. And I wont mind not seeing all the precipitation. I know snow is an insulator but I will take less snow and hopefully over cast skies at night (clear skies get really really cold).

Fantastic. Keep me warm.

In Tucson.
Instead of normal 80/55 in early Nov we're going to have 55/35 today.
Beats real winter, but it sure seems like a warning shot to me.

I love climatology. It seems to be the one thing we can disagree about without coming to blows. Given recent moves in the ENSO index and conditions in the northern Pacific, I believe that this year will look a lot like last year. Sorry Texas.

Quote:

Sorry dude, but at least up in the real north, snow pack warms things, and saves the ground and plants/foliage.

What are you arguing about? Up north of the Arctic Circle in deep winter, you'd be -20F over bare ground (and it'd kill everything below ground level converting it to permafrost) but -40F or worse over three feet of snow (even if it remained around 25F at the bottom of the pile).

Not so bad for deciduous shrubs, but plenty bad for you if your transportation pukes out in the middle of nowhere.

Incredible Alaska 'Snowicane' Could Slam Northwest This Weekend
By Alex Sosnowski, Expert Senior Meteorologist
Nov 8, 2011; 4:03 PM ET

Quote:

Bering Sea Snowicane

Over the Bering Sea region from southeastern Chukotka, Russia, to western Alaska, the storm will seem like a hurricane with snow, a "snowicane."

Damaging winds, blizzard conditions, huge waves and coastal flooding will batter the region near the Arctic Circle Thursday and Friday.

For people in the Bering Sea region, including shipping and fishing interests, this is considered to be a life-threatening storm situation....

more: http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/st....

Monster 'Snowicane' Hits Alaska
By Kristina Pydynowski, Senior Meteorologist
Nov 9, 2011; 4:58 PM ET

Quote:

A powerful storm that resembles a hurricane with snow, a "snowicane", continues to pound western Alaska. "The potentially historic 'superstorm'... is making 'landfall' in Alaska today with a pressure equivalent to a Category 4 Hurricane," said AccuWeather.com's Jesse Ferrell.

..."For people in the Bering Sea region, including shipping and fishing interests, this is considered to be a life-threatening storm situation," warned Accuweather.com Expert Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski.

The powerful storm is unleashing damaging winds, blizzard conditions, huge waves and coastal flooding. A 7-foot storm surge hit Nome, Alaska with water reportedly reaching the base of buildings. There have also been reports of roofs in Nome being blown off.

One incredibly impressive observation with this storm came from a coastal station that measured ice accretion of 23.5 inches per hour Tuesday night, according to Ferrell, who has more statistics on this historic storm in his blog.

...The worst of the storm will continue to pound northwestern Alaska, including Nome, today before shifting to southwestern Alaska tonight.

A piece of the storm will also move into the Gulf of Alaska tonight before delivering a shot of rain and mountain snow to the Alaska Panhandle, including Juneau....

more: http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/st....

Fook

I bet winter just sucks in a place like Nome. You'd have to love to read or something- I'd want to own a liquor store there cause I know that would be a priority purchase for me if I lived there
Though that can be said of many places all year round

Nome stinks pretty badly. In the winter that far north it does get completely dark in the winter. In Anchorage you have to make sure you live on the right side of any mountains as the sun rises about 10 degrees above the horizon in the winter and plenty of places don't get any sun exposure. Nome though actually is full dark and people there have gone crazy thinking they were vampires.

I often wondered why the hell people living up there....WAY up there, didn't slowly migrate down to warmer more tolerable climate 2-3000 years ago.

Just sayin'...

If I woke up freezing my ballz off each "morning" and noticed that funny little orb that came and went in the sky at a pretty regular basis....provided a degree of warmth, I'd probably get my harem together and say "Well now, tomorrow lets move camp a day's hike TOWARDS that weird little yellow dot"

...and in a few years myself and my harem would be living a somewhat more comfortable life.....until the bitching started about no refrigeration etc.....