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Call me a contrary contrarian.

2003 wasnt a bluff.

Well, I think that was a different situation. The drumbeat to war started months before the actual invasion. Obama isn't making a tour where he gives a series of primetime speeches about the dangers Iran poses. No apparent Colin-Powell-at-the-UN presentation is in the offing. A "coalition of the willing" isn't attempted to be built overtly. A Hans Blix equivalent isn't being sent to and thrown out of Iran. Iran, while in the news, isn't front page stuff day after day after day. I think they did all that with Iraq precisely because they knew Iraq couldn't do anything about it. When the calendar rolled over to 2003, it was obvious we were going to war.

Iraq was a very easy target. Saddam had no military and Iraq is such that you can literally drive through the desert right up to Baghdad very easily. The arrogance of Rumsfeld, Cheney, etc. in the post-war phase is why it became the mess it did.

Iran's military is clearly inferior to that of the United States and Israel, but they have many more cards to play than Saddam. Their military is larger, better trained, and better motivated. They can use the shutting off of the Strait of Hormuz as a weapon. They can retaliate by hitting Israel and American military installations throughout the Middle East. Most importantly, the US couldn't invade and occupy Iran for any significant length of time. Given all of those things I would think you'd need some sort of element of surprise if you wanted to make a move against them. Saddam, on the other hand, was helpless, allowing for a months-long campaign/build-up.

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Well, I think that was a different situation. The drumbeat to war started months before the actual invasion.

The drumbeats started years before the invasion.

Well, the one to stir up big time public support didn't. It isn't much of a drumbeat if only people paying attention see it. Before they launch these things they climb ladders and bang pots and pans with wooden spoons and yell "Hey look over here!" That one kicked off in earnest with Dubya's "mushroom cloud" speech in Cincinnati in October 2002.

True enough. But mushroom clouds above American and Israeli cities are already being talked about.

How close are we?

Obama, Biden, Panetta, etc. are coming out and saying that night after night and making primetime speeches about mushroom clouds? I'll put war at 6 months out when/if that happens.

I'm not sure the US is going to start anything. Israel? Maybe.

TK, not outright, but it's being implied in msm ...although I do agree that we're yet to hear it bluntly on faux news... I'd say we'll be in it sometime this year, spring to fall.

I very much doubt the US will participate in a first strike, only 49% of Americans support such a move and that's just not enough to take the country in to what's going to be far from an easy war. Also I agree with the other posters that the Obama administration isn't making much of an effort to garner more support.

"I very much doubt the US will
participate in a first strike, only 49%
of Americans support such a move..."

What if they hit us first? Or, more to the point, one of our ships or aircraft carriers sank, and western msm almost immediately began assigning blame to Iran? That's one scenario that could very easily play out, and one in which J6P would be screaming for shock and awe on Tehran.

You're right that would be the one thing that would lead to a fast war with Iran, their belligerent talk doesn't help in the matter.

Admiral says forces prepared to confront Iran

As Western sanctions tighten, Iran steps up threats to close the Strait of Hormuz if the country's oil exports are blocked.

The top U.S. Navy official in the Persian Gulf said Sunday he takes Iran's military capabilities seriously and says his forces are prepared to confront any Iranian aggression in the region.

MANAMA, Bahrain — The top U.S. Navy official in the Persian Gulf said Sunday he takes Iran's military capabilities seriously and says his forces are prepared to confront any Iranian aggression in the region.


Vice Adm. Mark Fox, commander of the 5th Fleet, told reporters at the naval force's Bahrain headquarters that the Navy has "built a wide range of potential options to give the president" and is "ready today" to confront any hostile action by Tehran.

He did not outline specifically how the Navy might respond to an Iranian strike or an effort to shut the entrance to the Persian Gulf, though any response would likely involve the two U.S. aircraft carriers and other warships cruising the waters off Iran.

"We've developed very precise and lethal weapons that are very effective, and we're prepared," Fox said. "We're just ready for any contingency."

Faced with tightening Western sanctions, Iranian officials have stepped up threats to close the Strait of Hormuz if the country's oil exports are blocked. A fifth of the world's oil supply passes through the narrow waterway, which is only about 30 miles across at its narrowest point.

Iran and Oman share control of the waterway, but it is considered an international strait, meaning free passage is guaranteed.

Iran's army chief, Gen. Ataollah Salehi, early last month warned an American warship not to return to the Gulf shortly after the aircraft carrier USS John C. Stennis and another vessel left. Another carrier, the USS Abraham Lincoln, entered the Gulf without incident on Jan. 22.


Iran's army chief, Gen. Ataollah Salehi, early last month warned an American warship not to return to the Gulf shortly after the aircraft carrier USS John C. Stennis and another vessel left. Another carrier, the USS Abraham Lincoln, entered the Gulf without incident on Jan. 22.

Fox acknowledged that Iran's military is "capable of striking a blow" against American forces in the Gulf, particularly using unconventional means such as small attack boats or mines laid along shipping lanes.

"We're not bulletproof. There are people that can take a swipe at us," Fox said.

But he added that he has reminded officers under his command that they "have a right and an obligation of self defense" if attacked.

The admiral's comments echo those of other Western officials, who say they will respond swiftly to any Iranian attempt to shut the Strait of Hormuz.

Gen. Martin Dempsey, chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, told CBS' "Face the Nation" last month that Iranian forces could block shipping through the strait "for a period of time," but added, "We can defeat that."

Fox's command encompasses the bulk of the Middle East, including the Red Sea, the Persian Gulf and a large swath of the Indian Ocean along the east African coast. There are about 25,000 sailors under his command.

credits
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/46360803/ns/....

We'll get shock and awe all right...at the gas pump.

Diesel is already pushing $4.00 again in my area. How high will this go if things get going over there? Regular gas is $3.58.

A gas spike right into the summer season would kill a lot of summer tourism. One could argue that prices are already reaching that threshold now and we are only in February.

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Or, more to the point, one of our ships or aircraft carriers sank, and western msm almost immediately began assigning blame to Iran?

Or simply "gets shot at"...not like it hasn't been done before.



Nice map...I don't know how accurate it is, but it wouldn't surprise me that each star is a location of US forces. I wonder, who's the threat again?

Iran denies responsibility for embassy attack

Israeli accusations that Tehran was behind bomb attack in India 'sheer lies,' Iranian official says

Reuters Latest Update: 02.13.12, 18:30 / Israel News

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,....

Iran rejects as "sheer lies" accusations that it was involved in a bomb attack on the Israeli embassy in India, the official IRNA news agency quoted the Islamic Republic's ambassador to New Delhi as saying on Monday.

"Any terrorist attack is condemned (by Iran) and we strongly reject the untrue comments by an Israeli official," Mehdi Nabizadeh was quoted as saying by IRNA. "These accusations are untrue and sheer lies, like previous times."

Meanwhile, an Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman joined the verbal attack on Israel, saying that Tehran "rejects the Zionist regime's accusations, which are part of a propaganda war." The comments were made to Iranian Arabic-language channel al-Alam.

Bibi: Iran, Hezbollah behind attack
Earlier, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu accused Iran and Hezbollah of being behind Monday's double terror attack on the Israeli embassies in India and Georgia.

Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman, who was briefed on Monday's events, also said that Israel was aware of the culprits behind the attacks.

"Israeli diplomats are on the front lines," he said, adding that Israel "knows how to identity who is responsible for the blast."

An explosion tore through an Israeli diplomat's car in the vicinity of the Israeli Embassy in New Delhi, India, Monday, wounding the wife of an Israeli Defense Ministry representative and her driver

Israeli Embassy Spokesman David Goldfarb confirmed that an explosion took out a diplomat's car. The injured woman was identified as Tal Yehoshua Koren. She suffered light to moderate shrapnel wounds to her lower body and was taken to a local hospital for treatment.

Dudi Cohen and Aviel Magnezi contributed to the report

The Road To Tehran Goes Through Damascus
Nile Bowie
http://nilebowie.blogspot.com/2012/02/ro....

Between the chaos and artillery fire unfolding in Homs and Damascus, the current siege against the Ba’athist State of Bashar al-Assad parallels events of nearly a century ago. In efforts to maintain its protectorate, the French government employed the use of foreign soldiers to smother those seeking to abolish the French mandated, Fédération Syrienne. While former Prime Minister Faris al-Khoury argued the case for Syrian independence before UN in 1945, French planes bombed Damascus into submission. Today, the same government – in addition to the United States and its client regimes in Libya and Tunisia – enthusiastically recognize the Syrian National Council as the legitimate leadership of Syria. Although recent polls funded by the Qatar Foundation claim 55% of Syrians support the Assad regime, the former colonial powers have made a mockery of the very democratic principles they tout.

Irrespective to the views of the Syrian people, their fate has long been decided by forces operating beyond their borders. In a speech given to the Commonwealth Club of California in 2007 retired US Military General Wesley Clark speaks of a policy coup initiated by members of the Project for a New American Century (PNAC). Clark cites a confidential document handed down from the Office of the Secretary of Defense in 2001 stipulating the entire restructuring of the Middle East and North Africa. Portentously, the document allegedly revealed campaigns to systematically destabilize the governments of Iraq, Somalia, Sudan, Libya, Syria, Lebanon and Iran.Under the familiar scenario of an authoritarian regime systematically suppressing peaceful dissent and purging large swaths of its population, the mechanisms of geopolitical stratagem have freely taken course.

Syria is but a chess piece being used as a platform by larger powers. Regime change is the unwavering interest of the US-led NATO block in collaboration with the feudal Persian Gulf Monarchies of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). This is being accomplished by using Qatar-owned media outlets such as Al-Jazeera to project their version of the narrative to the world and by arming radical factions of the regions Sunni-majority population against the minority Alawi-Shia leadership of Assad. Since 2005, the Bush administration began funding Syrian opposition groups that lean toward the Muslim Brotherhood and their aspirations to build a Sunni-Islamic State. The Muslim Brotherhood has long condemned the Alawi-Shia as heretics and historically attempted multiple uprising in the 1960’s. By arming radical Sunni factions and importing Iraqi Salafi-jihadists and Libyan mercenaries, the NATOGCC plans to topple Assad and install an illegitimate exiled opposition leader such as Burhan Ghaliun (leader of the Syrian National Council) to be the face of the new regime.

The recent example of implementing foreign policy by arming Al-Qaeda fighters in Libya has proved disastrous - as the rule of law passes from the NATO-backed Libyan Transitional Council to hundreds of warring guerilla militias. At a meeting between Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu and Hillary Clinton, Davutoglu pledged to find ways outside the United Nations Security Council to pressure Assad. In addition to bolstering longstanding sectarian divides in Syria, the US is smuggling arms into Syria from Incirlik military base in Turkey and providing financial support for Syrian rebels. Syrian opposition forces led by defected Syrian colonel Riad al-Assad have been trained on Turkish soil since May 2011. Exclusive military and intelligence sources have reported to Israel’s DEBKAfile that British and Qatari special operations units are assisting rebel forces in Homs by providing body armor, laptops, satellite phones and managing rebel communications lines that request logistical aid, arms and mercenaries from outside suppliers.

Although the UK has vehemently denied these reports, Qatar’s leader Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani recently suggested sending troops into Syria to battle Assad’s forces. Military bases situated near Turkey’s southeastern border with northern Syria have become a crucial hub used for the delivery of outside supplies. Unmarked NATO warplanes near Iskenderum have received fighters from Libya’s Transitional National Council wielding weapons formerly belonging to Gaddafi’s arsenal. Abdel Hakim Belhaj, (former leader of the extremist Libyan Islamic Fighting Group turned NTC military governor at the directive of NATO) is leading the infiltration of Libyans into Syria in person with the help of the Turkish government. It has also been reported that Mahdi al-Harati, resigned from his functions as deputy chief of the Military Council in Tripoli to oversee the Free Syrian Army.

Syrian press has also reported that armed terrorist groups brandishing up-to-date American and Israeli weapons have roamed the countryside of Damascus committing blind acts of terror by setting off explosive devices and kidnapping civilians. As the NATOGCC continue to insist that Assad is committing acts of genocide against unarmed civilians, one must draw correlations between events reported by the Syrian state media and recent statements released by the leadership of Al-Qaeda in Iraq, praising the arrival of Iraqi fighters in Syria and advising rebels to use roadside bombs. Paradoxically, Al-Qaeda front man Ayman al-Zawahri has called on Muslims from across the Arab World to mobilize and support the Free Syrian Army after the disappointing Russian and Chinese veto at the UNSC. Few things are more absurd than the notion of Al-Qaeda terrorists – unanimously portrayed as ostensible “savages” by virtually all-Western media sources - entrust the apparatus of the United Nations and their capacity to resolve the Syrian conflict. The true purpose of Al-Qaeda and its role in influencing foreign policy has never been more evident.

Surely, Assad accusing foreign-sponsored terrorist groups of fomenting violence in Syria is simply evidence of his illegitimacy - as Western and Gulf allies assert. Even as Syrian state TV broadcasts reports showing seized weapons stockpiles and confessions by terrorists describing how they obtained arms from foreign sources, the NATOGCC continues to draft legislation in an effort pressure the Assad regime into dissolution. In the face of an outright campaign of foreign-funded sabotage, Syrian hackers have targeted Al-Jazeera’s "Syria Live Blog", which provides ongoing coverage of the unrest. The hacker-ring boldly denounced Al Jazeera for broadcasting "false and fabricated news to ignite sedition among the people of Syria to achieve the goals of Washington and Tel Aviv."

Through the fiery rhetoric of Susan Rice and her relentless condemnation of Assad - like Gaddafi before him - the United States is again attempting to invoke the Right to Protect (R2P) doctrine to take direct action against the Assad regime. In another parallel to the Libyan conflict, the UN’s astounding official death toll in Syria is taken solely from human rights groups, backed by the National Endowment for Democracy (NED), the International Criminal Court and the Syrian National Council. The official numbers rely exclusively on an obscure organization known as the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) - based in London, not Damascus - whose evidence is largely reliant on hearsay, pixelated YouTube videos and activist Twitter feeds. SOHR’s disputed reports present evidence that would not hold up in any court of law, much less should it be the basis of United Nations resolutions. The Observatory's director Rami Abdelrahman collaborates directly with British Foreign Minister William Hague and derives legitimacy solely from connections with corporate/foundation-funded civil society networks. Claims that Assad’s security forces indiscriminately kill scores of newborn babies are palpably a product of Britain’s foreign office.

As a further indication of the on-going media war in Syria, none is more telling than the report produced by the Arab League’s observer mission into Syria. The contents of the report were completely ignored by the corporate-media after Qatar disputed its findings, the only nation to do so in the Arab League's Ministerial Committee. The report unalterably concluded that the Syrian government was in no way lethally repressing peaceful protestors. Furthermore, the report credits armed gangs with the bombing of civilian buses, trains carrying diesel oil, bombing of police buses and the bombing of bridges and pipelines. During an interview with Arab League observer Ahmed Manaï, he praises the Sino-Russian veto at the UNSC and encouraged the Syrian leadership to implement reforms. Manaï states, “The Arab League is entirely discredited by burying the report of its own observers’ mission and its appeal to the Security Council. It missed the opportunity to participate in the settlement of the Syrian affair. All it can offer in the future will be worthless.”

While the initial observer report is predictably absent from mainstream media coverage and cited as inept (presumably for contradicting the official line of the allied Western-Gulf powers), Arab League mission leader Mohammed al-Dabi officially resigned, stating, "I won’t work one more time in the framework of the Arab League, I performed my job with full integrity and transparency but I won’t work here again as the situation is skewed.” The United Nations and the Arab League are now considering what was originally a joint observer mission – now referred to as a peacekeeping mission. The Arab League, in tandem with Saudi Arabia is preparing a nearly identical resolution calling for an armed peacekeeping council to present to the UN. Much like the indistinguishable saber rattling seen before Libyan intervention, the new resolution condemns Assad for lethal repression and calls for a transitional shift to democracy. The resolution is expected to create similar Sino-Russian divisions over its implementation, Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Gennady Gatilov, previously scorned the document as "the same unbalanced draft resolution text."

The conflict in Syria has brought light to longstanding Cold War divisions between world powers. The Sino-Russian veto of the UNSC resolution calling for intervention has blocked the opportunity for Western powers to exert overt aggression, as demonstrated by NATO in Libya. Instead, it appears that the Assad regime will be destabilized through covert mercenary groups bent on committing blind acts of terrorism by means of sniper assassinations and roadside bombs. Learning from the Libyan experience, Russia and China perceive the UN Human Rights Report authored by Karen Koning AbuZayd, a director of the Washington-based corporate-funded think-tank, Middle East Policy Council - to be explicitly comprised; victims among the civilian population are a result of armed paramilitaries doing battle with the Syrian military in residential areas. In an interview with former Russian Joint Chiefs of Staff, Colonel-General Leonid Ivashov pledges that Russia will protect Iran, Syria, and the world from American fascism. In a show of support for the Syrian government, Russia has sent a large naval force into the region and China has further warned against a strike on Syria.

It is truly a paradox that the countries least fit to dictate principles of human rights, do so largely unhindered on the world stage. Without hesitation Hillary Clinton proclaimed, “What happened yesterday at the United Nations was a travesty” referring to the Sino-Russian veto. She then called for the formation of an international alliance between the war-profiteering elite of the West and absolutist Wahhabi Persian Gulf monarchies - amusingly titled, the Friends of Syria. International calls to abstain from violence have done little to influence the Gulf Cooperation Council and their brutal crackdown against Shiites in Bahrain. Incredibly, Saudi Arabia has entered the dialogue on human rights and democracy promotion – perhaps the world’s most defining feudalistic theocracy, a nation that prohibits political parties and national elections and executes those who apostatize Islam.

Iran’s Press TV news network has reportedly leaked intelligence exposing the American agenda in Syria. The report calls for the recognition of the Syrian National Council as the legitimate government and their positioning in Turkey to work against the Assad regime. Washington would then task Turkey with sending troops into Syria to arm the opposition forces, followed by Wahhabi fighters and Libyan mercenaries. Ominously, the intelligence stipulates that Israel will enter the fray to carry out military operations against Syria. If the regime fails to dissolve, Syrian state television channels will be taken down and Assad will be assassinated. Considering how other enemies of the West have faired in recent times, the sequence of events reported by Press TV would be largely unsurprising. The Wahhabis of the Persian Gulf are playing junior to American aggression in an effort to dominate the Shia-Alawi religious faction presently upheld by the leadership of Syria and Iran, but also to secure their places as regional powers.

Domestic affairs in Syria are of little consequence to the powers trying to topple the nation; the real priority is to further isolate Iran by eliminating its Shia-Alawi ally in Damascus. Israel reaps enormous benefit from toppling the Assad regime, as the Syrian Nation Council pledges to cut ties with Iran and discontinue arms shipments to Hezbollah and Hamas. If Syria falls and Iran is directly threatened, the potential for a regional conflict of the utmost seriousness exists, assuming China and Russia move in to defend Iran. Such a conflict would create detrimental implications for the global economy, potentially triggering a hyper-inflationary financial crisis. William Hague and billionaire financiers behind the civil society groups bestowing legitimacy to violent opposition actors are not the legitimate representatives of the Syrian people. Although the reforms have been slow, the Assad government is in the midst of drafting a new constitution. Syria’s sovereignty has come under direct fire from powers claiming to be defending Syria’s people. An attempt on the life of Bashar al-Assad may have similar consequences to the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand. As the Syrian National Council familiarly calls for the implementation of a no-fly zone over, those members of the International Community with any integrity left must work diligently to diffuse conflict in the region.

Iran will absolutely slaughter the US navy in that bathtub. I really hope if we do strike, the ships are out of the way and we use the land bases available to us. I prefer we not strike at all, but it will a very bad day for the US navy. You can't protect against the kind of fire and forget SSM firepower Iran has.

The british were ravaged by 3rd world argentine airforce in 1982. They had only 120 Jets from the 1950's against Britians modern harrier fleet, yet somehow Argentina was able to inflict direct bomb and exocet hits on HALF of the entire fleet that was anchored in Bomb Alley causing massive loss of life.

A carrier and handful of cutters will be lost. I have no doubt about it. The US Navy has not been targeted with a SSM since 1987 and the phalanx anti missile technology is sporadic at best (Lebanon)

Im sure someone will come in and correct me and tell me not a chance. But if we enter this conflict we will be the most exposed we have ever been in any conflict in history. Iranian Shore SSM batteries, F4 Phantoms with SSM, Subs. I fear for our boys.

Also, there will be terrorist attacks here in the US and in other countries as well.

06:58 Senior Thai intelligence officer says Bangkok bomb was directed at at Israel (Haaretz)

05:52 Thai police arrest Iranian suspect linked to Bangkok bombing (DPA)

---

Perhaps the war as already begun. Between the mysterious explosions in Iran and these latest bombings on Israeli interests...

US aircraft carrier has close encounter with Iranian patrol boat

ABOARD THE USS ABRAHAM LINCOLN – A U.S. aircraft carrier sailing through the strategic Strait of Hormuz had a close encounter with an Iranian vessel Tuesday.

The Iranian navy patrol boat came within two miles of the USS Abraham Lincoln, part of the Bahrain-based 5th Fleet, as it sailed through the strait with the destroyer Cape St. George and a guided missile cruiser.

The Iranian military came out for a look at the ships, first sending a reconnaissance flight and then sending the Iranian patrol boat.

The commander of the USS Abraham Lincoln, Capt. John Alexander, said such close encounters “could eventually lead to a fatal miscalculation.”
“They have the ability to take a shot at me at some point, and I worry about it,” Alexander told NBC News.

Because of strong U.S. sanctions over Iran’s nuclear program, Iran has threatened to shut down the strait and attack U.S. warships. Oil tankers carry a fifth of the world's oil supply through the strait, only about 30 miles across at its narrowest point.

Iran has also amassed Revolutionary Guard fast boats, submarines and, along the shoreline, anti-ship cruise missiles.
Vice Admiral Mark Fox, commander of the 5th Fleet, said, “We’re ready today. This is the world we live in.”

Fox said Sunday that Iran had built up its naval forces in the Gulf and prepared boats that could be used in suicide attacks, but the U.S. Navy could prevent it from blocking the Strait of Hormuz.

The U.S. Navy's 5th Fleet always has at least one supercarrier at sea accompanied by scores of jets and a fleet of frigates and destroyers.

Iran to install nuclear fuel rods in reactor

Iran will load domestically-produced nuclear fuel rods into a research reactor Wednesday, hailed by national news agencies has a major advance in Iran's nuclear program.

President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is expected to be on hand to showcase Iran's latest achievement, state-run Press TV reported Wednesday.

Ahmadinejad had already announced in a speech marking the anniversary last week of the 1979 Iranian revolution that Iran would be unveiling something big.

The nuclear fuel rods are the first to be produced by Iranian nuclear scientists.

Tehran announced last month that it had succeeded in building and testing a nuclear fuel rod, or a stack of low-enriched uranium pellets bundled together at the core of a nuclear reactor.

That announcement appeared aimed at demonstrating Iran's growing sophistication in developing a home-grown nuclear program, amid Western fears that the Islamic republic will use its knowledge to build nuclear weapons.
In January 2008, the semi-official Fars news agency had reported that Iran was able to produce everything it needs for the nuclear fuel cycle, making its nuclear program self-sufficient. But it was not clear that Tehran actually had the technology to turn enriched uranium into fuel rods.

The Iranian Students News Agency, citing Iran's atomic energy agency website, said Wednesday that the uranium fuel rod was tested successfully and installed in the core of a research reactor in Tehran.

"Because Western countries were unwilling to help us, we began enriching uranium to 20% to make nuclear fuel rods," Ali Bagheri, deputy chief of Iran's national security council, told the Russian news agency, RIA Novosti on Tuesday. Iranian news agencies quoted the Russian news agency report.

"These nuclear rods, the first created by Iranian specialists, will be inserted ... into the Tehran research reactor in the presence of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad," Bagheri said
Iran has insisted its nuclear program is intended or civilian energy purposes only. But it has rebuffed repeated demands to halt its production of enriched uranium, and a November report by the United Nations nuclear watchdog found "credible" information that Tehran has carried out work toward nuclear weapons -- including tests of possible bomb components.

After the January report, the governing council of the International Atomic Energy Agency adopted a resolution expressing "deep and increasing concern about the unresolved issues regarding the Iranian nuclear program."

Iran responded to the IAEA report by calling it a fabrication aimed at bolstering U.S. accusations that Iran is working toward a bomb.

"We will never ever suspend our enrichment," Ali Asghar Soltanieh, Iran's permanent envoy to the IAEA, said in November.

In December, the United States as well as several other nations announced increased sanctions against Iran in an international effort to tighten the screws around the suspected nuclear weapons program.
http://www.cnn.com/2012/02/15/world/meas....

I see we are right on track for a spring attack it appears. The covert war started 6 months ago...

As I said previously, just waiting to wake up one morning to news visuals of 1000 tomahawks launched along with air raids...

Gas should spike to $8 within a couple days after initial strike I figure.

we're a few days, maybe a couple months top before they release

"Gulf of Tonkin II: The nuclear sequel"

You watch, reports of a carrier getting attacked starts this whole ****storm. Israel nukes Tehran with a low level device the same day and plants the story the first Iranian bomb blew up by accident. Iran foolishly fires missles at Israel and the carrier groups which only adds credibility to the Israeli story.

China and Russia do nothing in the initial confusion. Once everyone figures it out nobody uses nukes but WWIII starts in earnest.