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Vitchilo
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Sure they gonna use nukes... I mean, all they wish for is to get vaporized...

Hell MAO wasn't afraid of nuclear war and didn't start one over the Korean war. The soviets could have annihilated the world... they didn't do it. Pakistan probably hate India more than Iran hates Israel.... no nukes have been launched yet... etc... Bibi is full of it.

http://www.spacedaily.com/reports/Israel....
Quote:
Israel's air force is expected to take delivery of advanced Arrow-2 missiles interceptors, capable of greater killing power against Iranian and Syrian ballistic missiles, over the next few weeks amid rising Middle East tensions.

IMO no attack on Iran before the Arrow 2 interceptors are up and running... which would mean October timeframe for war with Iran.

October 14-15-16 could be very dangerous.

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"Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." -- H.L. Mencken
Yonatan
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Here you go, wrongway.

"Lying about Deir Yassin"
http://archive.frontpagemag.com/readArti....



Dogfarm
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political suicide for the Israelis to start a war before the US elections in October. no can do. Have to wait and see who wins the election - if Mitt wins, Israel will work with the US. If Obama wins, the Israelis are on their own (Obama admin wants to play nice with Iran ala Baer) and Israel will need to take the gloves off.

I think the Israelis are going to get their house in order for the next 4 months. if they were going to hit it should have been last quarter when the world was with them. now that Iran is waging a very effective media war demonizing the Israelis via the Israel/Palestine issue (note: i am not taking sides on that issue in this post) and Israel really is starting to become perceived in a negative light.

The more i think about it, the more i believe that mitt winning might stave off WW III. He knows how to negotiate with the Iranians by matching their statements which are all political theater. In the Middle Eastern culture kindness and respect are often misunderstood for weakness. That's just the way it is hence all this loco talk. Obama and Hilary just don't have any game in this part of the world except for writing checks with the funds being used for anything except what the US wants.

Now, if the Israelis do pull a 'Crazy Jacob' and hit Iranian sites before the November US elections here is what I think would happen: Iran/Hezbollah pound the **** out of Israel with rockets and bombs. Iran threatens as many US bases as it can in the Middle East with rocket attack. Iran does leave open the strait because they know oil is all anyone really cares about in the US. Obama becomes very angry at Israel for screwing up his re-election plans and he drags his feet in any kind of support for Israel or response to Iran for as long as possible (3-4 months). Eventually Israel will have to force Obama's hand (assuming he wins again which I think he will) by threatening to break out their nukes here in the ME. Obama grudgingly offers support and US pounds the **** out of Iran via air in operation clean sweep to remove short range missile threat. Russia and China freak out. Sunnia Shia battles in middle east surge, someone breaks out some VX gas of Syrian vintage and WWIII looms.

Also, please don't forget, none of the Arabs want Iran to have a nuclear weapon either. So in a sense, while Palestine is important to the Arabs, I do believe that protecting themselves from Iran is more important at this particular moment in time as the Iranians could quite easily roll over the Middle East with a nuke as the Bahrainis will tell you. Also, the Arabs don't want WWIII.

but who really knows. woof.





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“Be sober, be vigilant; because your adversary the devil, as a roaring lion, walketh about, seeking whom he may devour” (1 Peter 5:8)
Eo
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Aren't some kind of elections coming soon in Israel too?

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"Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former."
Albert Einstein
Asimov
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Quote:
(Bloomberg) — Iran probably would attempt to block the Strait of Hormuz at the mouth of the Persian Gulf only as a “last resort,” according to a Pentagon historian who’s written a new history of America’s 33-year shadow war with the Islamic Republic.


Iran has greatly improved its ability to disrupt shipping through the strategic waterway, the route for a fifth of the world’s traded oil, said historian David Crist. Still, the Islamic Republic’s economy also relies on shipping through the Strait, he said.


“Their prime means of exporting oil is through the Strait,” said Crist, author of “The Twilight War: The Secret History of America’s Thirty-Year Conflict with Iran” (Penguin Press, 656 pages, $36), in an interview. “If they mine, it means their oil is not coming out, either. So ultimately it either cuts off their nose to spite their face” or it would be an attempt to pressure the international community to resolve a crisis.


“I’ve always viewed that the Iranians see that as an option of last resort if all else fails,” Crist told an audience August 1 at the International Spy Museum in Washington.


Other U.S. officials are less sanguine, and in September the U.S. and 20 allies will stage a minesweeping exercise in the Persian Gulf that the U.S. Central Command said will be the largest ever.


http://gcaptain.com/fails-iran-start-blo....

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It's justifiably immoral to deal morally with an immoral entity.
If you trade based on what other people say, you will lose money. Especially what I say. I won't be held responsible. Festina lente.
Vitchilo
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Quote:
Aren't some kind of elections coming soon in Israel too?

I think the whole defection thing fell apart and there won't be an election until October 2013.

http://www.buzzfeed.com/zekejmiller/isra....
Quote:
Israeli Officials To Election 2012: “So What?”

Question: Who do Israel's leaders really want to win the election? Answer: Whatevs.

They know that whoever wins, it doesn't matter, they will both bow down to Israel... as US presidents have been doing since the 60s.

http://www.businessinsider.com/iran-is-s....
Quote:
In addition to the more than 20 ships of the 5th Fleet stationed in Bahrain, there will be another strike group headed to the Gulf led by the carrier USS John C. Stennis. On top of this, four additional minesweepers arrived in the region last month to ensure shipping lanes remained open and undisturbed. Those craft joined the refitted USS Ponce which is being used as a forward staging base.

To that end, 19 other countries will descend upon the Gulf September 16, with the U.S., to conduct an immense 11-day mine sweeping operation to practice mine countermeasures.


Quote:
IRAN ENVOY TELLS ASSAD THAT SYRIA IS ESSENTIAL PART OF "AXIS OF RESISTANCE" WHICH TEHRAN WILL NOT ALLOW TO BE BROKEN - SYRIA STATE TV

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"Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." -- H.L. Mencken
Vitchilo
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http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/news/201....
Quote:
S. Korea likely to resume imports of Iran crude next month

South Korea is likely to resume oil imports from Iran as early as next month, a government source said Wednesday, after imports were halted because of a European Union ban on insuring Iranian oil shipments due to Tehran's suspected nuclear program.

"The Iranian side and local oil refineries are discussing the measure of using Iranian oil tankers (for the imports)," the government source said on condition of anonymity. "The discussion is making progress."

Sanctions fail...

Next up : physical blockade on Iran.

http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-de....
Quote:
Israel fears UN chief's visit to Iran will undermine efforts to thwart nuclear program

UN Secretary General has yet to confirm, but sources claim he intends to attend upcoming Tehran summit of Non Aligned Movement.

Aw...

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"Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." -- H.L. Mencken
Drench
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Quote:
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran has a lot on his mind these days. Especially chicken.

The rising price of this food staple is the cause of such anxiety among Iranian officials that last month, Iran’s police chief, Esmail Ahmadi-Moghaddam, urged the country’s TV stations not to broadcast images of people eating the birds. He was worried it could lead to social unrest.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-08-07....
Zarathustra
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inline

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"And in knowing that you know nothing, that makes you the smartest of all." - Socrates
Bobby
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"Hell MAO wasn't afraid of nuclear war and didn't start one over the Korean war. The soviets could have annihilated the world... they didn't do it. Pakistan probably hate India more than Iran hates Israel.... no nukes have been launched yet... etc..."

None, anywhere?
Really.

And anyway, basing future events on historical events?
bob

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Asimov
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Pakistan was part of india till the british randomly split them off. There's a lot of animosity on both sides with some groups, but they still remember that not too long ago, they were a single country.

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It's justifiably immoral to deal morally with an immoral entity.
If you trade based on what other people say, you will lose money. Especially what I say. I won't be held responsible. Festina lente.
Vitchilo
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Quote:
And anyway, basing future events on historical events?

That's how it works. Humans do the same things over and over again.

http://www.richardsilverstein.com/tikun_....
Quote:
France’s Embassy in Israel Prepares Secret Plan for Naval Evacuation in Event of Massive Iranian Missile Counterattack

There have been new signs of a possible looming Israeli attack against Iran in recent days. Walla reports (Hebrew) that the French government has devised contingency plans for a mass evacuation of French citizens living in Israel in the event of war. They would gather at the Jaffa port and be transferred to French naval vessels stationed off the Israeli coast. The French embassy presented operational plans to a group of 50 French-Israeli citizens regarding a possible war scenario. The plans would involve several hundred thousand Israelis with dual nationality. Among the possibilities it foresees is a massive missile strike on Israel. In that eventuality, the French navy will offer refuge via its warships which will be standing offshore.

10% of Israel speaks french (600 000)... so a bunch of them have dual nationality with France.

http://www.richardsilverstein.com/tikun_....
Quote:
Barak Confidant: Israel Has Decided to Attack

Former Labor party minister, Uzi Baram, wrote a column in Yisrael HaYom today that urges Israel’s leadership to tell the people clearly what lies in store when they execute an expected attack on Iran. What is most striking about the article is this:

Recently, I’ve come to believe that the leaders of the State have decided to act [attack Iran].

A trusted Israeli source tells me that Baram learned this from none other than a close confidant of Ehud Barak. In other words, Barak has begun to tell his closest friends that Israel is going to war. Before hearing this, I thought chances of an Israeli attack were 70-30. Now I believe they are 85-15.

Another interesting focus of Baram’s article is the economic fallout that such an attack will generate. Though he speaks in terms familiar to anyone who’s read Meir Dagan’s warnings on this subject, the columnist focuses specifically on economic issues. He warns a strike will bring an end to international investment in Israeli business and a halt to the flourishing tourism industry:

Every Israeli citizen should know that what has been will not be in the future…It will mean the end of today’s Israel.

…It’s no secret what will happen. If we attack, the Iranians will respond in kind. The western and Muslim world, including Iran’s allies and enemies, will tighten the “siege belt” around us.


Yep. Also, let's not forget the western world reaction when the world economy collapses and oil is at 400-500$ a barrel because of the warmongers in Washington DC and Tel-Aviv... the western governments might suck up to Israel and say all day long that ``a war was needed for your own good`` but people won't buy it...

Unless they gonna ``start`` the war by staging something as to appear innocent... and even then I doubt people will buy it.

http://news.antiwar.com/2012/08/07/repor....
Quote:
Reports Citing Intelligence on Iran Weapons Program Lack Credibility

These reports crop up using flimsy evidence from sketchy sources, but US intelligence still says Iran has no weapons program


http://www.wnd.com/2012/08/iran-threaten....
Quote:
Iran threatens U.S. over Syrian abductions by Syrian rebels

Should any of the Iranians taken hostage by rebels in Syria be harmed, America should expect Iran’s intelligence agents to respond in kind, the Islamic regime has warned.

Empty threats.

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"Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." -- H.L. Mencken

Vitchilo
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http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-de....
Quote:
Obama gets new U.S. NIE: Iran making surprising progress toward nuclear capability

National Intelligence Estimate backs Israel's view of surprising, significant progress; 2007 NIE report claimed Iran had suspended nuclear program.

http://www.spacedaily.com/reports/Rafael....
Quote:
Rafael key to blocking Hezbollah missiles

In recent weeks, the Israelis have made much of upgrades for the high-altitude, long-range Arrow 2 missile that is the main defense against Iranian and Syrian ballistic missiles.

In May, the U.S. Congress approved almost $1 billion for Israel's planned four-tier missile defense shield, on top of the annual $3.1 billion in military aid, for fiscal 2013.

Iron Dome gets the lion's share with $680 million, on top of a $205 million U.S. appropriation in fiscal 2012.

Four Iron Dome batteries have been deployed since the system was certified operational in 2011. But military planners say at least 20 are needed to provide effective protection for the country.

The air force, which has charge of air defenses, is to take delivery of another two batteries, armed with extended-range interceptor missiles by the start of 2013.

Meantime, the air force is expecting to be supplied with extended-range interceptors for the existing batteries in the next few weeks.

http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/politics....
Quote:
Turkey Warns Iran: 'You Cannot Threaten Us'

Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salihi came to Ankara yesterday [August 8] to ask for help in freeing 48 Iranian pilgrims abducted in Syria, but was shocked by what he heard. As soon as Salihi landed in Ankara he was given the Turkish reaction to Iran's incessant statements. In their three-hour meeting Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu told Salihi that statements of Iranian officials accusing Turkey of being responsible for what is happening in Syria were not acceptable.

Salihi reportedly replied, “You should only consider our official statements,” and blamed news agencies for reporting the others.

Davutoglu was not satisfied by the Iranian minister's explanation and gave this message: “Nobody can threaten Turkey. We have been neighbors for so long. Don’t test us.”

http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-de....
Quote:
Barak: New U.S. intelligence report raises urgency over Iran's nuclear program

Defense Minister Ehud Barak confirms Haaretz's report that Obama recently received an NIE report which shares Israel's view on Iran's progress toward nuclear capability; Israel, U.S. positions on Iran now closer, says Barak.


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"Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." -- H.L. Mencken
Lplate
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Quote:

http://www.wired.co.uk/news/archive/2012....
07 August 12

Iran has announced that all government ministries and state bodies will go offline from September 2012 to shield the country from an "untrustworthy" worldwide web that rests in the "hands of one or two specific countries".

Speaking at a conference at Tehran's Amir Kabir University, Iranian minister of communication and information technology Reza Taqipour confirmed that the step -- designed to protect the nation's intelligence form foreign powers -- was the first phase in moving the country away from a global internet and towards a national intranet by the end of 2013. Following in the footsteps of North Korea, where the Kwangmyong intranet is the only online platform citizens can use, Iran is abiding by plans announced in April 2011 to instate a heavily censored system that abides by Islamic law....
Vitchilo
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US to Israel : suck it.

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/1,7340,....
Quote:
US: Iran not on the verge of becoming nuclear

The US has announced that there has been no change in the intelligence assessment according to which Iran is not on the verge of becoming nuclear and that there is still time for diplomacy.

A senior US official said that contrary to reports in Israel, Washington maintains the view that Iran is not on the verge of obtaining nuclear capabilities.

Gee for once Obama has done the right thing.

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"Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." -- H.L. Mencken
Avianphlu
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thank God...false flag in 3...2...1
Landshark
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Quote:
US: Iran not on the verge of becoming nuclear

The US has announced that there has been no change in the intelligence assessment according to which Iran is not on the verge of becoming nuclear and that there is still time for diplomacy.

A senior US official said that contrary to reports in Israel, Washington maintains the view that Iran is not on the verge of obtaining nuclear capabilities.


Translation: "Hey Israel, we'll attack after the election".

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Success in life is a matter not so much of talent and opportunity as of concentration and perseverance.

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Asimov
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But there was a new report of some kind that came out just a couple days ago saying there were closer than the US thought previously.

Sigh.

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It's justifiably immoral to deal morally with an immoral entity.
If you trade based on what other people say, you will lose money. Especially what I say. I won't be held responsible. Festina lente.
Landshark
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Maybe just trying to muddy the water with conflicting messages to throw off the Iranians?

New moon in 8 days.

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Success in life is a matter not so much of talent and opportunity as of concentration and perseverance.

– C. W. Wendte

Yonatan
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Hey Vitchilo, I can understand and even support your feelings on this, however, don't expect us to just sit on our asses and wait for this to be a fait accompli. If we have to launch on our own, we will, and you will have to bear the brunt of whatever that means to your country. "It's a **** sandwich and everyone is going to have to take a bite."
Mazalo
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If you have to launch on your own, you're scared ****less you'll be left to twist in the wind. You always prefix it all w/ "if we have to launch on our own."

Launch already and reap what you sow.
Sean
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Quote:
Hey Vitchilo, I can understand and even support your feelings on this, however, don't expect us to just sit on our asses and wait for this to be a fait accompli. If we have to launch on our own, we will, and you will have to bear the brunt of whatever that means to your country. "It's a **** sandwich and everyone is going to have to take a bite."


Yep Yonatan I fully agree with you on this.

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* I think Ann Barnhardt is more and more right. God help us!
* Progressives / Marxists / Communists are many things, STUPID and IMPATIENT are not two of them.
* A hot civil war is coming.
* And people wonder why I prep!
Yonatan
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Hey Mazalo - study the history of the conflicts that Israel has had to endure since becoming a State. We have been left to twist in the wind pretty much just about every time. We're used to it and expecting it. We all expect major problems from it, but cannot allow a nuclear armed Iran. An attack by us is better than allowing them to go nuclear.

That being said, when we launch the US WILL be involved in some form, if for no other reason than to keep the straits open to shipping. Or you can just sit back and watch and enjoy your $300 dollar oil. Somehow I can't see the US standing pat on that. So deal with it. Stop kicking the can down the road on this too. Funny how this situation kind of mirrors the financial situation.
Gollum
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Maybe we in the US need the push of $300 oil to finally push us in to getting serious about energy independance.
Landshark
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Quote:
Hey Mazalo - study the history of the conflicts that Israel has had to endure since becoming a State.


Read your own history. And I suggest finding some honest sources, rather than the "anything for Israel" sources.

Learn something, for crying out loud. Open your eyes.

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Success in life is a matter not so much of talent and opportunity as of concentration and perseverance.

– C. W. Wendte
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