Well, he's got about 2 weeks to be right for THIS quarter... Could still be right, but I don't think so.

Poer, you cannot compare today to the past. Things have changed. Remember, we had to abandon capitalism to save capitalism. You cannot use previous metrics on the current situation. Just look what has happened to all the people who did that and correctly assessed it as a bearish scenario. They got killed because they were still operating in the past.

Just 5.5% till 14k and 6.5% till new highs. Good luck Joe.

Riddle me this then, TF'ers: Selling stock is a preference for cash and a depreferencing for risk. If you knew that the central banks were firmly committed to flooding the system with money and firming committed to creating the manifesting proof of their expertise via a rising market, what would make you (generic you) prefer cash to participating in rising stocks?

Cash has a certain non-risk in a very low inflation environment, and, of course it has an opportunity cost. But cash, now, bears MFGlobal risk outside of an FDIC-insured account of *any* sort and bears loss-of-purchasing power risk therein or in any form.

So what would drive the masses to cash? Anecdotally, the retail investor is largely in cash because of fear generated by the flash crash and by the general decline 2008-2009. Aren't those folks the ones who always do the wrong thing?

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Anecdotally, the retail investor is largely in cash because of fear generated by the flash crash and by the general decline 2008-2009. Aren't those folks the ones who always do the wrong thing?

IMO until they get the retail investor back in "the game" the markets are going to slowing continue to grind higher. At some point the masses may start getting back it. Who knows when? Perhaps when we're at new ATH's????

Db, I think that is one big fat part of the plan.

Yeah Gamma probably so. When we get to ATH's the targets on the Dow will get bumped to 15k 16k to get the retail guy excited and get them back in. It would be that big of a surprise to not see the bear return until we're over 15k on the Dow.

Well, the good news is that correlation has gone to something more like 40% from about 100%.

N/cheerleader :)

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!

Yah put all of your money in Apple and let me know how that works out,

Actually this kind of chatter has happened multiple times since the 2009 lows and each time the "trap door" is sprung.

Good luck keeping this market up with a global recession underway. Keep listening to Kudlow and others who tell you about decoupling. These are the same folks that told you about the diversification of American companies with foreign markets.

ignore durable goods and almost every single economic indicator in the past three months which have disappointed.

Ignore the warnings from CAT.

Go ahead - and buy an Ipad along the way

LOL

Until Bernanke stops with the QE cocaine we'll likely move higher. Bonds are simply not attractive right now so the market is sticking with stocks and gobbling up dividends.

The fundementals really don't matter because treasuries have been ruined and yield nothing and inflation is rising which means you are losing money sitting in cash and bonds.

as long as rates stay near zero I think stocks will continue to march higher simply because there is nowhere else to go to beat inflation.

Until this dynamic changes and rates rise nothing much will change.

A recession wont halt the march higher?

Really?

How do we avoid a recession with the conditions in Europe, Asia and all other dependent economies?

How do we avoid a recession with the fiscal cliff we face in 2013?

I think it is funny that people are critical of this guy. Just because reality and common sense has been suspended doesn't mean it's stopped.

"as long as rates stay near zero I think stocks will continue to march higher simply because there is nowhere else to go to beat inflation"

This only works if people are buying the products of the companies. Once people stop buying, revenue and earnings fall no matter how much money is printed. Stocks will not float higher in a depression.

The consumer has been juiced mentally (via positive news reporting and higher stock prices) and physically with lower taxes via the fica reduction but once they believe **** will get worse, they will shut wallets again and stocks will react unless the fed buys equities directly from the market with printed money.

This is mostly a confidence game and their luck will run out.

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unless the fed buys equities directly from the market with printed money.

With the save everything policy so far it's not that far fetched. There are loads of pension funds out there dependent on an ever-increasing stock market.

also dont forget that the average yields of dividend stocks are fairly low and just slightly better than fixed income alternatives

Difference being that you can get hammered on your principal and immediately lose the value of any dividends X times.

The investment trap is in ALL PAPER not just bonds.

If the average investor is "flocking" to dividend paying stocks than why have we had weekly net redemptions of retail money out of mutual funds for the span of the past year?

Most of this move is HFT momentum action; trap door is set ready to spring

I think people continue to pull money out of the markets because they need to LIVE....that is not what bull markets are made on. I know of many people who have either taken loans against their 401ks or straight got out b/c they can't make ends meet.

Fed doesnt buy equities unless there is an epic crash and even then they may not do this because chances are they will be the target of folks anger for causing the crazy volatility

Heard the same **** in 2007 and 2008 with "smart people" suspending common sense and contrary data to support price movement................

Not saying go 100% all in on stocks. Just realize you are getting poorer everyday sitting in cash. Stocks are they only shot you have to beat inflation.

Earnings will rise as inflation rises. Especially with companies with low input costs like Hershey because they will raise prices.

The more QE'ing that occurs the worse inflation is going to get.

Also realize that money is flying out of Europe and into the US.

Not saying it makes sense. You just try and go where the money is flowing and stay diversified.

Own quality divvy names that don't get killed when stocks drop.

Or you can continue to short the market and get your head caved in.

Your choice:)

I disagree. You can in fact lose in stocks. And when push comes to shove, the Fed cares much more about the bond market than stocks. Yes cash sucks right now. Pay off debt if you have it....metals or oil as another hedge. I still think the SnP ends the year below 1000. I realize I am in the minority here these days.

The Fed cares more about bonds but the smart money is realizing they are pretty much as insolvent as banks at this point and they can't keep up with inflation so why bother? The money flowing in there now is from the Fed, Europe and China because they have too.

Also, the Fed does care more about bonds which means they will remain near zero which will stoke the inflation problem as they QE.

Agree with you on energy and metals. I am in both.

Paying off debts is also a good idea.

We are sadly running out of options. Bonds are no longer safe in my book so I'll hedge by owning a few stocks.

we have one last flight to safety for bonds before inflation can no longer be hidden (at least what is reported and how they play games).

Watch Europe - every time their market tanks, ours follows.

Margin calls folks - this will happen again and to say it wont hit US markets is just plain naive