I saw a report that said tourism tax revenues were down for Orange County, FL (Orlando) for December.

Kochevnik - so GDP, if .gov borrowed the same, should be the same as 1996 to right?

So a quick glance at the GDP tables shows US GDP for 1996 was 7,838B and 2010 was 14,551B.

So we need a 47% reversions in GDP to normalize based on people in the labor force and gasoline used? Does that number need to be adjusted for inflation?

So I ran those 1996-2010 numbers using a 2.5% inflation rate. 1996 GDP adjusted for inflation in 2010 would be 11075B and 2010 reported GDP was 14551B. So you’d need to see 24% come off 2010 GDP to get it back to 1996 levels adjusted for inflation with zero growth. So 2012 is probably close to KD’s 30% number I’ve heard before. All seems to make sense. We need a -30% GDP “one time adjustment” print and then we can try and grow from there if we can.

They call that a depression BTW.

Any way of getting similar numbers for Europe?

With how quiet the roads were in peak holiday season 2011, I'd bet those numbers are 'interesting'.

The lowering consumption and the continuing high price of oil would suggest that there's a lot of money chasing oil for wealth safekeeping rather than need.

Does that mean it will fall off a cliff at some point when all the lemmings head for the exit?

Assuming constant production rates ...

Nocents wrote..

. . . chasing oil for wealth safekeeping . . .

This doesn't sound reasonable to me.

Considering that the percentage drop in petroleum prices from the ATH to the subsequent low was far greater than the drop in equities or real estate since 2008, that does not seem to be a very sound "safekeeping" investment.

Quote:

This doesn't sound reasonable to me.

Considering that the percentage drop in petroleum prices from the ATH to the subsequent low was far greater than the drop in equities or real estate since 2008, that does not seem to be a very sound "safekeeping" investment.

How about if the value of your ****ing fiat dollar goes to nearly zero and the price of oil gets cut in half. Who won?

Yea.

Why can't people get in through their heads the real value of a barrel of oil? The **** is a ****ing bargain at this price.

And the value of the dollar will be printed in oblivion.

The point is that after the ATHs petroleum dropped by >two-thirds, equities by ~half, and real estate by <half (in most places), oil does not seem to be the best "safekeeping" investment.

Quote:

The point is that after the ATHs petroleum dropped by >two-thirds, equities by ~half, and real estate by <half (in most places), oil does not seem to be the best "safekeeping" investment.

Then what is? Its much easier to be a critic than provide answers. :)

Energy makes everything happen, without it, its back to the stone ages.

Quote:

Energy makes everything happen, without it, its back to the stone ages.

A lot more people on the planet now than during the stone ages.

If it got really bad for energy resources the U.S. would just have a few million chinese pedal stationary bicycles for 12 hours a day to generate electricity.

Sorry Peterm99, perhaps I didn't express my ideas properly.

What I meant was that possibly there was a lot of money (possibly new, fully levered credit money) sloshing about looking for a home to live for the short-term-ish. I didn't say it was a good idea nor a good investment.

In fact, exactly the opposite. I was suggesting that, like Karl has before about the gold market, the oil market could be flooded with levered demand that is holding the price artificially high.

If oil consumption is dropping, then even if production matched it on the way down, one would presume that it was coming from increasingly cheaper sources as well, knocking out all of the more expensive wells from the supply chain.

My postulation is that, like any highly levered market, it could move quickly and suddenly, or am I being stupid?

Edited to also add, I'm not saying the money went in at the all-time high either. Some could be betting that it will return to the highs, especially with the sabre rattling regarding Iran.

Edited again to also add that I believe few people actually speculate with their own capital, but many like to speculate with leverage. I'd argue that at the current 100 bucks, give-or-take it's probably a long way from the true marginal cost of production at the moment.

Quote:

If it got really bad for energy resources the U.S. would just have a few million chinese pedal stationary bicycles for 12 hours a day to generate electricity.

It would take more than "a few" million people pedaling stationary bikes to produce as much electricity as a single decent size power plant.

-Uwe-

from dbcooper

Quote:

This is very interesting and most likely has many factors but i think namely the economy is worse than what the MSM keeps spouting.

I know many here have held that for sometime like myself and i really do believe this summer will be bad in so many ways from tourism,construction etc.

people are spending all their money eating out instead of driving. there has been no pull back since christmas. usually people quit spending after christmas but not this year. im amazed how crowded alot of places are on weeknights!

Last night I went to our little cheap theatre here in town to see Mission Impossible 4. I was the only person who showed up, so the show was cancelled.

Despite what some few on TF claim things are not picking up, around here anyway.

Being in Los Angeles things are pretty strange out here.

I would like to add that all that massive building that was going on before have completely stopped. Like all of those 500+ house subdivisions built in every hillside all over SoCal. That must have taken a lot of fuel to create. That isn't happening anymore.

Noah,

Need context. Where are you? What kind of restaurants?

Flyover country = eat out = what recession?

http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHan....



Here is link to the data series. I have been searching around and asking around and nobody seems to have an explanation. January car sales were about 920k, but their are 140 Million cars currently registered so that can't account for it.

I have searched for a change in the accounting, but I don't see any clear signs of that. It is true that we are exporting gasoline, but nothing seems to account for this drop.

Hmmm. Time for J.P. Morgan to rent some more tankers...gotta keep that price up.

The spread on Brent/WTI has been saying something for a while.

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-02....

China January Oil Imports Rise to Record 23.41 Million Tons
Feb. 10 (Bloomberg) --China, the world’s second-largest oil consumer, imported a record amount of crude in January as new refineries started and plants ramped up runs before maintenance.

Crude purchases from overseas increased 7.4 percent from a year ago to 23.41 million metric tons last month, according to preliminary data today on the website of the Beijing-based General Administration of Custom. That is equivalent to 5.54 million barrels a day. Final figures are scheduled to be released on Feb. 21. The country bought 23.29 million tons in September 2010.

China is expected to increase its crude imports this year as refining capacity expands and domestic production lags behind demand growth. The nation may buy 9 percent more than last year, or an average 5.6 million barrels a day in 2012, according to the median estimate of seven analysts and traders in a Bloomberg survey last month.

“The refineries are presumably running higher because they’re going into maintenance in March and April and they need to ramp up fuel inventories before they start,” Brynjar Eirik Bustnes, head of Asia Pacific oil and gas research at JPMorgan Chase & Co., said by telephone from Hong Kong. “We’ll continue to see record numbers because domestic crude production is not growing and demand is, so the only way is to ramp up imports.”

Net crude purchases, or imports minus exports, rose to 5.46 million barrels a day in January, from 5.1 million barrels a day in December, today’s data showed. The average purchase price was $108.53 a barrel, down from $110 the prior month.

Maintenance Planned

China’s state-owned refiners plan “major” maintenance in the second quarter that will affect the equivalent of 12 percent of the nation’s oil-processing capacity, Oilchem.net said Jan. 18, without elaborating. The nation’s apparent crude consumption is expected to rise 5.3 percent this year while crude output will rise by 1.5 percent, according to the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Federation.

China Petroleum & Chemical Corp., or Sinopec, started operation of its Beihai refinery in Guangxi province on Jan. 1 with an annual crude processing capacity of 5 million tons. PetroChina Co.’s Ningxia refinery, able to process 5 million tons a year, started trial operations on Jan. 1.

Net purchases of oil products including diesel and gasoline reached 1.09 million tons last month, down from 1.79 million tons in December. China’s coal exports fell 29.7 percent from a year ago to 1.01 million tons last month, according to today’s data.

--Chua Baizhen and Jing Yang. Editors: Christian Schmollinger, Paul Gordon

China's loading up before the Strait of Hormuz gets bottled up.

yes Goldbrick
just commented on this in the Iran thread

Lady on Fox said 'we' need to prevent Iran from exporting oil to slam their GNP in order to have their people overthrow the .Gov't


This will help keep gas high