I am absolutely stunned that we have gotten back to this level. Initial claims are improving and the debt to output gap is narrowing. All of the indicators are improving. I am really beginning to question the thesis that the debt is a problem and that everything is going to go down the toilet. Because for the past 3-4 years, the top has prevented the bottom from falling out over and over.

Speculative trillions sloshing around the markets courtesy of the Central Banks...

Naw, that wouldn't have any affect, would it ?

Fundamentals aren't the dominant influence these days.

This is the thing that is bothering me Tesla. I think this will go on longer than many (including Karl) thinks, but it will end in the short-medium time frame (say 2015-2016), but it is still really mind boggling to see what is going on.

It is particularly depressing to watch your country be catabolized by criminal and thieves. Except the "energy/money" released is only being captured by them and we (the people) are left increasingly impoverished.

I think the looting will continue until we the people have nothing much left. IMO that's after Europe implodes...and I think that's going to take longer than most want to believe. Who would have ever thought we could run 3 years with trillion + deficits with no problems borrowing even more ? Who would have thought they'd be able to extend and pretend in Greece for 2 years and counting ?

I can't put a time frame on it - I just know that $5+ gas, another 50% or so food inflation, and no decent-paying jobs will get us there sooner or later. My best guess is 3-4 more years before something breaks again, because this country won't survive in its present form with $5 gas for long. Until then, we'll all be sucking it in more and more unless we throw out all the looters and moochers in DC and the predators on Wall Street.

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Fundamentals aren't the dominant influence these days.

Liquidity is a fundamental

It is only wrong if you lost money. In Bernanke/Obama's eyes it is all good, and for that matter most of the ignorant public think it is good too. That is who they are really targeting.

They need to recruit bagholders before plunging this thing. It's going higher IMO and I think any pullback will be no more than 2-4% as they won't want to spook the retailers from getting on board. This bull has a good year left if not longer.

The bull could go on almost forever if they are able to slowly inflate out of this. Clearly that is the plan.

Perhaps until ZIRP ends sometime in 2014. It wouldn't surprise me the least bit to see Dow 15,000 before it all ends. Our economy may end up like Japan's in the early 90's but Bernanke has all but assured us our markets sure aren't gonna end up the same.

It doesn't end until the bond market says it does.

I wish Karl would devote a Ticker to the huge disconnect between why he thinks "it is over" or "we need to be prepared" and all the above and especially the stock indexes. It truly is silly to read the tickers, see and expect the 'doom' yet day in and day out see the opposite by or from the markets, politicians and MSM.

Bshj, I think a lot of people under estimated Bernanke's policies (me included, at least for the first 2 years of the current bull market). When I tried to warn people back in 08-09' the most common response I got was "the stock market always comes back", and guess what, they were right.

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It truly is silly to read the tickers, see and expect the 'doom' yet day in and day out see the opposite by or from the markets, politicians and MSM.

I would be a liar and a hypocrite if I did not admit to feeling a sense of apathy, from time to time, when reading the slew of economic blogs I read daily. I get burned out reading all of the doom and gloom and then watching the status quo continue to newer heights.

Wait till operation twist ends and they have to find buyers for their bonds, the market will tank then. Then as the demand increases Ben can do his QE again and buy bonds, the market will then recover. Wash, Rinse, Repeat.....

It's not just you Fraudster.

I think you're nuts if you or anyone thinks this will last even a few months at gas at five dollars a gllon if it goes there- goodnight- you think fast food workers will even go to work? And kiss consumer spending goodbye as the price of everything spirals while wages are stagnant- the above sentament is telling we closer to another implosion but yes we may rise to for a bit before the carpet gets pulled-
Good luck though if gas hits five bucks a gallon

Poer. The economy stalls when gas gets to a certain level. No argument. But playing devil's advocate, when gas was $4 a gallon, everyone is freaking out. Now that it is basically back at $4, after a slower grind up, I hear nary a peep. Basically if the screw job is slow enough, people will just accept and take it. That is what we are seeing with the QE--->Bailouts---->Taxes--->Unconstitutional law -----> etc.


EDIT: It will all come apart (relatively soon - see above), but I really do think it is going to take a lot longer than many think. Especially in the US where we are currently at the summit of the current economic and financial system. We will fall last, which means that this farce is going to take some time to play out. I will come out and say it, I think Karl is very wrong on his timing. If I am wrong I have no trouble admitting it, but I don't buy into Karl's timing on all of this. His final prognosis, yes. Timing, no.

I personally don't think gas at 4 or 4.50 a gallon will have the effect some here think. Back in 08' it did but that was when the markets were falling every day so that was a double whammy. Now, if gas goes up every day, so does the market. I know many of folks that are feeling pretty damn good right now. Lots of chatter about 401ks heading back up and nearing all time highs as many stayed in and kept contributing back when the Dow as 8k,9k,10k,11k, 12k,,,, the wealth effect is working.

Agree Dbongo. The thing though, is that it is just paper wealth and can dissipate just as fast (if not faster) than it was generated.

Oh I agree Fraud and I think if they're not taking some off the table they could be in for another surprise when the next bear market comes along. The next bear could last more than 18 months too.

I don't know about you, but for most people I know, the market doubling tomorrow doesn't make $4.50 gas affordable.

Mr.Bill, I agree to some the market going up everyday won't offset gas going to 4 bucks. But, gas going to 4 or 5 bucks probably isn't going to stop the bull market either. I think it's going to take much more than that.

It'll work till it doesn't. I'm one of those that doesn't care as far as the markets. As oon as I got a little beat down after a tremendous bear run I walked away. Only thing I've played since then is a little lotto on BAC going belly up.

When the worm turns don't be long.

Nothing changes until a current event, like Iran, or Greece actually reaches a conclusion.

If Israel bombs Iran or Greece defaults and civil war starts reality might return to the world and the markets.

Until then, mark to fantasy, party like it's 1999 and get huge ****ing bonuses for loosing enormous sums of OPM.

Not to be the Capt Bear Buzz Kill. But the Dow? Really?

http://money.cnn.com/data/dow30/

BAC could go poof tomorrow and the DOW would pretty much stay intact. Look at the companies in there.

Then realize that if BAC goes poof, they pick another company and put it in the list of 30.

Trivia question. How many companies out of the original DOW 30 are still in business?

Edit; The original dow list was not 30 and I don't have time to look it up. But I believe it was less than 20.