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User Info As the DOW passes 13000 where did it all go so wrong? in forum [General]
Fraudster
Posts: 4170
Incept: 2011-05-10
Silver
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I am absolutely stunned that we have gotten back to this level. Initial claims are improving and the debt to output gap is narrowing. All of the indicators are improving. I am really beginning to question the thesis that the debt is a problem and that everything is going to go down the toilet. Because for the past 3-4 years, the top has prevented the bottom from falling out over and over.


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"Let China sleep, for when she wakes, she will shake the world." - Napoleon Bonaparte

"Circulation ceases first at the outer edges [Europe and Japan]. It will take a while yet for the decay to reach the heart [America]." - Foundation & Empire by Isaac Asimov
Tesla
Posts: 15541
Incept: 2008-04-03
Green A True American Patriot!
State of Disbelief
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Speculative trillions sloshing around the markets courtesy of the Central Banks...

Naw, that wouldn't have any affect, would it ? smiley

Fundamentals aren't the dominant influence these days.

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"Even a dog knows the difference between being stumbled over and being kicked." -Justice Oliver Wendell Holmes

"Neither the wisest Constitution nor the wisest laws will secure the liberty and happiness of a people whose manners are universally corrupt." -Samuel Adams
Fraudster
Posts: 4170
Incept: 2011-05-10
Silver
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This is the thing that is bothering me Tesla. I think this will go on longer than many (including Karl) thinks, but it will end in the short-medium time frame (say 2015-2016), but it is still really mind boggling to see what is going on.

It is particularly depressing to watch your country be catabolized by criminal and thieves. Except the "energy/money" released is only being captured by them and we (the people) are left increasingly impoverished.

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"Let China sleep, for when she wakes, she will shake the world." - Napoleon Bonaparte

"Circulation ceases first at the outer edges [Europe and Japan]. It will take a while yet for the decay to reach the heart [America]." - Foundation & Empire by Isaac Asimov
Tesla
Posts: 15541
Incept: 2008-04-03
Green A True American Patriot!
State of Disbelief
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I think the looting will continue until we the people have nothing much left. IMO that's after Europe implodes...and I think that's going to take longer than most want to believe. Who would have ever thought we could run 3 years with trillion + deficits with no problems borrowing even more ? Who would have thought they'd be able to extend and pretend in Greece for 2 years and counting ?

I can't put a time frame on it - I just know that $5+ gas, another 50% or so food inflation, and no decent-paying jobs will get us there sooner or later. My best guess is 3-4 more years before something breaks again, because this country won't survive in its present form with $5 gas for long. Until then, we'll all be sucking it in more and more unless we throw out all the looters and moochers in DC and the predators on Wall Street.

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"Even a dog knows the difference between being stumbled over and being kicked." -Justice Oliver Wendell Holmes

"Neither the wisest Constitution nor the wisest laws will secure the liberty and happiness of a people whose manners are universally corrupt." -Samuel Adams

Lk
Posts: 13159
Incept: 2008-03-13
Gold
DC - VA
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Quote:
Fundamentals aren't the dominant influence these days.

Liquidity is a fundamental

Eaglewwit
Posts: 6054
Incept: 2007-11-30
Green
SoCal
Banned
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It is only wrong if you lost money. In Bernanke/Obama's eyes it is all good, and for that matter most of the ignorant public think it is good too. That is who they are really targeting.
Dbongo
Posts: 798
Incept: 2007-08-06
Green
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They need to recruit bagholders before plunging this thing. It's going higher IMO and I think any pullback will be no more than 2-4% as they won't want to spook the retailers from getting on board. This bull has a good year left if not longer.

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I Heart TZA! And Ben Bernanke doesn't! LULZ
Eaglewwit
Posts: 6054
Incept: 2007-11-30
Green
SoCal
Banned
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The bull could go on almost forever if they are able to slowly inflate out of this. Clearly that is the plan.
Dbongo
Posts: 798
Incept: 2007-08-06
Green
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Perhaps until ZIRP ends sometime in 2014. It wouldn't surprise me the least bit to see Dow 15,000 before it all ends. Our economy may end up like Japan's in the early 90's but Bernanke has all but assured us our markets sure aren't gonna end up the same.

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I Heart TZA! And Ben Bernanke doesn't! LULZ
Rdaniels
Posts: 444
Incept: 2007-11-30
Green
Purgatory
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It doesn't end until the bond market says it does.

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I wouldn't be so pessimistic if it wasn't so hopeless.
Bshj
Posts: 347
Incept: 2007-08-07
Silver
Near Huntsville Texas - Execution Capital
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I wish Karl would devote a Ticker to the huge disconnect between why he thinks "it is over" or "we need to be prepared" and all the above and especially the stock indexes. It truly is silly to read the tickers, see and expect the 'doom' yet day in and day out see the opposite by or from the markets, politicians and MSM.
Dbongo
Posts: 798
Incept: 2007-08-06
Green
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Bshj, I think a lot of people under estimated Bernanke's policies (me included, at least for the first 2 years of the current bull market). When I tried to warn people back in 08-09' the most common response I got was "the stock market always comes back", and guess what, they were right.

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I Heart TZA! And Ben Bernanke doesn't! LULZ
Fraudster
Posts: 4170
Incept: 2011-05-10
Silver
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Quote:
It truly is silly to read the tickers, see and expect the 'doom' yet day in and day out see the opposite by or from the markets, politicians and MSM.


I would be a liar and a hypocrite if I did not admit to feeling a sense of apathy, from time to time, when reading the slew of economic blogs I read daily. I get burned out reading all of the doom and gloom and then watching the status quo continue to newer heights.

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"Let China sleep, for when she wakes, she will shake the world." - Napoleon Bonaparte

"Circulation ceases first at the outer edges [Europe and Japan]. It will take a while yet for the decay to reach the heart [America]." - Foundation & Empire by Isaac Asimov
Flyanddive
Posts: 569
Incept: 2008-10-10
Silver
Detroit
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Wait till operation twist ends and they have to find buyers for their bonds, the market will tank then. Then as the demand increases Ben can do his QE again and buy bonds, the market will then recover. Wash, Rinse, Repeat.....

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"I've seen people go into real poverty trying to pretend to be rich."
Ramthebulls
Posts: 10842
Incept: 2007-09-24
Gold A True American Patriot!
Queens, NY
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It's not just you Fraudster.

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Umbrage is like love. No matter how much someone takes, there's always more for you to give.
Poer
Posts: 1382
Incept: 2008-09-28
Silver
'Eppur si muove!'
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I think you're nuts if you or anyone thinks this will last even a few months at gas at five dollars a gllon if it goes there- goodnight- you think fast food workers will even go to work? And kiss consumer spending goodbye as the price of everything spirals while wages are stagnant- the above sentament is telling we closer to another implosion but yes we may rise to for a bit before the carpet gets pulled-
Good luck though if gas hits five bucks a gallon

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"The degree to which a man substitutes the judgment of others for his own, failing to look at reality directly, is the degree to which his mental processes are alienated from reality." Nathaniel Branden in Ayn Rands 'Capitalism The Unknown Ideal'
Fraudster
Posts: 4170
Incept: 2011-05-10
Silver
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Poer. The economy stalls when gas gets to a certain level. No argument. But playing devil's advocate, when gas was $4 a gallon, everyone is freaking out. Now that it is basically back at $4, after a slower grind up, I hear nary a peep. Basically if the screw job is slow enough, people will just accept and take it. That is what we are seeing with the QE--->Bailouts---->Taxes--->Unconstitutional law -----> etc.


EDIT: It will all come apart (relatively soon - see above), but I really do think it is going to take a lot longer than many think. Especially in the US where we are currently at the summit of the current economic and financial system. We will fall last, which means that this farce is going to take some time to play out. I will come out and say it, I think Karl is very wrong on his timing. If I am wrong I have no trouble admitting it, but I don't buy into Karl's timing on all of this. His final prognosis, yes. Timing, no.

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"Let China sleep, for when she wakes, she will shake the world." - Napoleon Bonaparte

"Circulation ceases first at the outer edges [Europe and Japan]. It will take a while yet for the decay to reach the heart [America]." - Foundation & Empire by Isaac Asimov

Dbongo
Posts: 798
Incept: 2007-08-06
Green
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I personally don't think gas at 4 or 4.50 a gallon will have the effect some here think. Back in 08' it did but that was when the markets were falling every day so that was a double whammy. Now, if gas goes up every day, so does the market. I know many of folks that are feeling pretty damn good right now. Lots of chatter about 401ks heading back up and nearing all time highs as many stayed in and kept contributing back when the Dow as 8k,9k,10k,11k, 12k,,,, the wealth effect is working.

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I Heart TZA! And Ben Bernanke doesn't! LULZ
Fraudster
Posts: 4170
Incept: 2011-05-10
Silver
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Agree Dbongo. The thing though, is that it is just paper wealth and can dissipate just as fast (if not faster) than it was generated.

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"Let China sleep, for when she wakes, she will shake the world." - Napoleon Bonaparte

"Circulation ceases first at the outer edges [Europe and Japan]. It will take a while yet for the decay to reach the heart [America]." - Foundation & Empire by Isaac Asimov
Dbongo
Posts: 798
Incept: 2007-08-06
Green
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Oh I agree Fraud and I think if they're not taking some off the table they could be in for another surprise when the next bear market comes along. The next bear could last more than 18 months too.

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I Heart TZA! And Ben Bernanke doesn't! LULZ
Mrbill
Posts: 7840
Incept: 2008-10-19
Gold
North Carolina
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I don't know about you, but for most people I know, the market doubling tomorrow doesn't make $4.50 gas affordable.
Dbongo
Posts: 798
Incept: 2007-08-06
Green
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Mr.Bill, I agree to some the market going up everyday won't offset gas going to 4 bucks. But, gas going to 4 or 5 bucks probably isn't going to stop the bull market either. I think it's going to take much more than that.

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I Heart TZA! And Ben Bernanke doesn't! LULZ
Themortgagedude
Posts: 8841
Incept: 2007-12-17
Green
saint louis
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It'll work till it doesn't. I'm one of those that doesn't care as far as the markets. As oon as I got a little beat down after a tremendous bear run I walked away. Only thing I've played since then is a little lotto on BAC going belly up.

When the worm turns don't be long.

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I'm already visualizing you with duct tape over your mouth.
Harrisonact
Posts: 1752
Incept: 2010-10-04

canada
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Nothing changes until a current event, like Iran, or Greece actually reaches a conclusion.

If Israel bombs Iran or Greece defaults and civil war starts reality might return to the world and the markets.

Until then, mark to fantasy, party like it's 1999 and get huge ****ing bonuses for loosing enormous sums of OPM.

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bilge
My playbook speaks espaņol. Deal with it. Im too lazy to fix it.
Medicdan
Posts: 8001
Incept: 2010-02-11
Green
Scottsdale, AZ
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Not to be the Capt Bear Buzz Kill. But the Dow? Really?

http://money.cnn.com/data/dow30/

BAC could go poof tomorrow and the DOW would pretty much stay intact. Look at the companies in there.

Then realize that if BAC goes poof, they pick another company and put it in the list of 30.

Trivia question. How many companies out of the original DOW 30 are still in business?

Edit; The original dow list was not 30 and I don't have time to look it up. But I believe it was less than 20.

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Arizona & desert gardening
http://azediblegarden.com/

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