Well, folks, it feels a LOT like 2005/2006 around here. My husband and I lived here during that bubble and the current market is shaping up to be quite a seller's market.

I met an agent to look at my first house today. I asked her about foreclosures and what is going on with the market. She said she has listings that are getting multiple offers (as in 5 to 15 offers!).

I received an e-mail update from another realtor this morning giving me two "new listings." When I clicked on the first one, it says "Property no longer available."

Most of the short sales are "under contract".

Inventory in metro Orlando is said to be at a 5 month supply. (6 months is a balanced market, so we are in a seller's market here).

I'm actually about 22 miles West of Orlando in a fast-growing commuter town. (we have 10,000 homes approved for building and just waiting to break ground) I'm within 15 minutes of 3 new home communities with active building going on and SOLD signs in the yards of the new homes. Prices are $180k+.

Actually, Case-Shiller predicted this exact same thing last fall. Orlando was supposed to be one of the rapidly appreciating markets.

I'm trying to make sense of it all. Is it because people are trying to lock in these low rates? Are they trying to beat the new fees on loans/mort. insurance? Is it because inventory is low? (due to a moratorium on foreclosures) Maybe because rents are so high now?

Also, the entire "shadow inventory" issue is alive and well here. I can see two empty homes out my front/ back window here. One is boarded up and someone just pushed in the window of the other one. I checked both on our county's property website, and both are still showing as privately owned (not bank owned).
When are these going to hit the market? One shows on Zillow that it was listed as a short sale in 2010 at $109k, but the listing was pulled. Now it's overgrown, and you can see furniture in there.

My former co-worker bought a home here in 2003 and installed a huge pool/ hot tub, etc in 2007. Then her husband was transferred to Texas. I looked up the records on that house and it still shows them as the owners. The property tax bill has their TX address and shows amount due as $1,800. I wonder if they are paying it?

Our property appraiser website is implementing an on-line tax certificate sale process now. Instead of having to show up in person and bid, we can go on-line and place bids. I guess I could look up the 3 homes I just mentioned and see what's going on.

All I know is I don't want to buy in this crazy market, but I don't want to keep renting past October at $1,100 a month!

IF this shadow inventory tsunami is going to hit this year, I want to wait for that.

Oh and the final hum-dinger: Case-Shiller has identified 7 metro areas in the US that are expected to increase in price by "at least 5%" by Q3 2012. One of them is the city where we used to live: Gainesville, GA.

What gives? I know CAT announced a new plant to be built over in Athens (commuting distance) and G'ville is also commuting distance to Norcross, which has been the site of some pretty big manufacturing announcements latey (new Kings Hawaiian plant/ dist center, etc)

I checked the MLS for the entire area where we used to live up there and it seems like the same low-inventory/ high price situation is shaping up.

In FL, if you look on Zillow map and see the sales that took place last summer/ fall, prices now are WAY higher. The local paper says prices are up 10% in my end of the county over this time last year.

I even see a "flip" listed. We looked at the place in 2010 and it sold for $87k. Now they want $180k. I remember how it looked inside and I see that they have updated one small bathroom, and removed carpet to update an enclosed porch. Hardly big time stuff!

So here we go, into the spring & summer buying season. Up, up, and away!

our Realtor said inventory is super low here too (I can confirm) apparently realtors are bitching about the homes being bulk sold to investors as there isn't enough inventory for current buyers

he said it is a sellers market

personally— all I see is the same stale, old, organic, over-priced, listings so when a short sale of a decent house comes up priced accurately it goes quick.

they are trying to create a false frenzy and bidding war
they can go shove it up their pie whole

So why is inventory so low? Is it because of foreclosure gate and the hold on new foreclosures?

I see empty homes all over this neighborhood - overgrown and empty. The most expensive listing in here now is $125,000 (I think it might be the only listing out of 200 homes). That price is just about right where it should be considering our high UE and low wages in my area of FL, plus high property taxes and high insurance. Plus we are in the "kind of bad" middle/ high school zone (so I won't buy in here).

I live in Miami, and while sales have been increasing recently, prices are still going down. Down here a lot of it is due to bulk buyers. I don't know why there is a frenzied market in your area, but I am sure of one thing: if you perceive a manic, irrational market, stay away. There is no point in trying to compete with stupidity--especially if all that shadow inventory is out there. Prices will go back down. Just wait it out. I'll bet if you add up what it will cost you each month for a mortgage payment (after the tax deduction), property taxes, maintenance and insurance, your $1,100 a month rent payment is going to look like a great value.

By the way, all those prognosticators were wrong last time (remember,"nobody saw it coming?"), so their predictions aren't worth a bowl of spit.

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So why is inventory so low? Is it because of foreclosure gate and the hold on new foreclosures?

I think so Erica

another reason banks don't want to sell shadow inventory:

it is like you own a business that has 5 million dollars worth of inventory that is only worth 1 million if you sold it today. Therefore you don't sell and take the hit — you hang on to it and write the value down year after year.

This drags out the housing recovery years which is why last time (S&L) they took all the bad paper off the banks and put it in Maiden Lane where it could unloaded.

Vegasradar - That means the banks have to pay holding costs like maintenance, HOA fees, and property taxes, lest some other party (HOA or County) foreclose. The banks don't have the cash on hand to float these homes for years on end. That's why they've been getting liquidity injections like mad, prop trading, and desperately seeking bagholders for their overpriced stocks. If the banks can't find a bagholder, they have to borrow more cash from the central banks to float their crap home loans and sovereign debt bets.

Once the CENTRAL banks run out of liquidity, you'll see banks puking up homes as they grow increasingly desperate for cash. The ECB is on their final round of QE (aka LTRO) and at 36:1 reserve ratio can't take on any more debt; the Fed is done (Operation Twist just shifts Fed bond holdings from short end to long end and provides no new liquidity), and today Ben basically said the party's over. China's RE bubble is popping as we speak.

I figure the housing market is going to get a flood of homes on the market before the year is out as banks start getting desperate for liquidity.

Wow. I didn't think I'd be hearing the words "seller's market" for quite a while. Sounds like now is the time to sell if you're thinking about selling.

Update: My realtor sent me a listing of 4 properties earlier this week and I just got around to opening the e-mail. Now 3 out of 4 of the listings are "pending" or "under contract."

That's over in Seminole County. Meanwhile, in my county, a recent article says anything under $150k is "gone within days" and realtors "report buyer frustration at not being able to find anything decent."

I remember when $150k was a few steps ABOVE a starter home. Now it seems like $160-180k is "starter" pricing here in Central FL. Still cheap compared to many areas of the country, but not when you consider what the average income is here, plus HOA dues, property taxes, and homeowner's insurance.

In short, it sucks to be a buyer now. I think the solution is to wait another 12-24 months, but when rentals are going for $1,100 - $1,400, that's tough.

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6 months is a balanced market

Does that hold true in general across the US or just for your market?

Erica- These things tend to move in waves. Right now we are getting a wave of buying but regardless of the markets and what not - it will fizzle out. There aren't endless buyers and the supply of homes including foreclosed and shadow will far exceed any demand. It might look bullish but realtors, bankers and everyone in DC is trying to keep visible supply low and turn everything over at a high price point. I see nothing but a weak pop and only then in certain areas.

The 6 month rule is supposed to be universal as I understand it.

Mayor, I feel like this is definately a pop before the next leg down.

Erica wrote..

Mayor, I feel like this is definately a pop before the next leg down

My thoughts also.

We just put my mother-in-laws home on the market. Ocean Pines, MD.

When we looked at pricing, etc. Low interest rates, timing - I think we're headed up for a while before heading down again.

Hope so, for my MIL's sake. She needs as much out of the house as she can get.

Just an update: 3 REO's in my neighborhood here in Central FL hit the market this week. Signs went up and the shrubs were trimmed.

Open the floodgates - here comes the next wave.

Prices are spiking in our neighborood (at least "list prices"). One fool is trying to get $199,000 for his house! (but the real fool will be the buyer who pays anything near that price)

Prices range from $99,000 (listed today - foreclosure) to $199,000 (has a "safe room in the master bedroom). This is by all accounts a "blue collar" neighborhood with average sized homes. A mix of nice yards and unkempt, dead grassed yards. Definately a "starter" neighborhood filled with young families.

Lot sizes and home square footages/ finishes are all pretty standard, so this kind of price variation is weird.

I see prices starting higher than a year ago, but also a good share are being reduced after awhile, some by up to $25,000. The market is totally nuts, just like the stock market.

We continue to wait to buy...

I sold my house in South Tampa in March the day before it listed at full asking price.

We're buying a townhouse here in a very small association - about 20 townhomes. I doubt I'll ever move again until they take everything away but a couple pairs of pajamas for the nursing home.

a lot of boomers buying cheap retirement homes in FL right now and dumping their larger homes in other areas.

Boomers are mostly buying in the senior neighborhoods in my town - the places with a golf course and $200+ a month HOA dues for the pool and lawn mowing of a .14 acre lot.

We took a long walk around this neighborhood tonight. Saw a home that looked like someone moved out in a hurry. Piles of stuff at the curb and furniture and plastic bins by the garage.

I feel sorry for anyone in FL these days who works (worked) in construction. Things have dried up and what else can these guys do? We only need so many lawnmowing businesses.