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User Info $TNX to 2.19 in forum [NotSoBreakingPrice]
Mayorquimby
Posts: 13909
Incept: 2008-09-18
Green
The Archaic Past
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They who wish to hurt you, work within the law.
- Morrissey

Gold is theft.
Genesis
Posts: 130681
Incept: 2007-06-26
Admin A True American Patriot!
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Neither do I. Incoming!

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Nanna
Posts: 5659
Incept: 2008-01-20
Gold
NY State
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2 major chart levels in 2 days on TNX.

A few days ago there was commentary about the biggest ETF money flows ... into GLD, HYG, JNK, LQD and a couple of others.

While not yet confirmed, the price action on Treasuries and their subordinate trading partners is definitely notable.

There might be a backandfill retest, but this is the first MAJOR sell in bonds I've seen in the markets for a couple of decades.

As Gartman says sometimes (not usually lately at the right time) ... this is a *seachange* event.

IMO we've seen the generational lows on yields, now, and primary trend has now reversed after 16 or so years.


N/not investment advice, just a bold cocktail hour call





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"There are fluctuations in the market that don't mean anything."Ira Gluskin, February 14, 2012
Deepsee100
Posts: 1304
Incept: 2008-02-05

The Med
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smiley

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Next
Asimov
Posts: 103872
Incept: 2007-08-26
Gold
East Tennessee Eastern Time
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Goldman also recommended shorting treasuries today. Between that and nanna, I find it rather hard to disagree. :P

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It's justifiably immoral to deal morally with an immoral entity.
If you trade based on what other people say, you will lose money. Especially what I say. I won't be held responsible. Festina lente.
Ape_lincoln
Posts: 761
Incept: 2011-08-04

Ron Paul 2012
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This is dangerous. We need those yield sub three and half pik to service debt and stimulate to prevent recessionary drop off. I am watching this closely.. every bps is alot more money needed to service debt. And you have a political enviroment that is starting to close in on the debt issue

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Themortgagedude
Posts: 8843
Incept: 2007-12-17
Green
saint louis
Online
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They lose the long bond and they lose housing. They can't afford to lose housing again. If they do they lose it all. Banks, stock market, pension funds. They will do whatever it takes to keep the plates spinning. It won't work forever but we're not done yet.

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I'm already visualizing you with duct tape over your mouth.
Genesis
Posts: 130681
Incept: 2007-06-26
Admin A True American Patriot!
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Heh heh heh....

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Pika-steph
Posts: 54697
Incept: 2007-09-11
Gold A True American Patriot!
Live Free Or Die; US Army Est. 1775
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What Karl said +1.

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Stop the Looting; Start Prosecuting - http://www.FedUpUSA.org/
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"The only regulation that really works is failure."--Rick Santelli
Lowbeyond
Posts: 16866
Incept: 2008-02-11
Green A True American Patriot!
CO aka West NJ/East CA
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So crash the s and pees and flight to bonds? Where have we seen that b4? Lol

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Maybe it was a birdy bread-bomber from the future?!
Sandor
Posts: 1944
Incept: 2007-08-08
Green
Deltaville,Virginia
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What the Mortgagedude said +2


Rd
Posts: 466
Incept: 2008-02-27
Gold
Long Island, NY
Online
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Trade of the Decade: The Power Elite's Grand Strategy

Charles Hugh Smith had this pegged a while ago - Now everything can fail and the 99% can pay a nice return in Government bonds to the 1%, I figure 7 to 8 percent on 20 year bonds for the next thirty years. No SS, No Medicare, No pensions or retirement accounts - just work off the colossal debt.

http://www.oftwominds.com/blogoct10/gran....

http://www.oftwominds.com/blogoct10/trad....



Usonian
Posts: 478
Incept: 2010-04-14

Orange County, CA
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DO NOT post the bomb or dancing bananas... DON'T DO IT, dammit!!!!

Whoever jinxes this, I'll rip their ****ing head off and **** down their neck.

You've been warned.

Now.. is this FINALY it, or do we fade this action like usual? The only thing that gives me pause is that Nanna is actualy showing a little bearish sentiment on debt, which is truly interesting.

Ape Lincoln... I'd like to see some danger, for once. This world is way too safe.

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What a man does—that he has. You may find other things on him, but they are not his.
Frank Lloyd Wright
Genesis
Posts: 130681
Incept: 2007-06-26
Admin A True American Patriot!
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What should I name the boat? smiley

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Usonian
Posts: 478
Incept: 2010-04-14

Orange County, CA
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Dammit, Karl!!!! Stop it!!! smiley

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What a man does—that he has. You may find other things on him, but they are not his.
Frank Lloyd Wright

Genesis
Posts: 130681
Incept: 2007-06-26
Admin A True American Patriot!
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Ok ok..... smiley

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Nanna
Posts: 5659
Incept: 2008-01-20
Gold
NY State
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I'm not going to mince words here, I've been long debt for over a decade when others have been talking about "interest rate conundrums" and whatever.

Past couple days ... really looks like a generational shift to me. Debt markets are like jazz (versus stocks rock and roll) timing to me. My spidey senses are all prickling.

N/not investment advice, just spidey analogs :)

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"There are fluctuations in the market that don't mean anything."Ira Gluskin, February 14, 2012
Mayorquimby
Posts: 13909
Incept: 2008-09-18
Green
The Archaic Past
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Um...

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They who wish to hurt you, work within the law.
- Morrissey

Gold is theft.
Themortgagedude
Posts: 8843
Incept: 2007-12-17
Green
saint louis
Online
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Methinks this could continue for a few days. I'm advising people to lock their rates. But I really think Bondzilla hasn't even thought about coming out yet.

When Bondzilla comes out were ****ed because we will not change till then. And it won't be pretty.

For now methinks they'll QE without letting us know if they have too. Anything that's necessary because Ben ain't going down till the ****ing house burns down around him.

Maybe 24 months.

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I'm already visualizing you with duct tape over your mouth.
Mayorquimby
Posts: 13909
Incept: 2008-09-18
Green
The Archaic Past
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I dunno...no one is going to sit there and watch their money get decimated. If the market really does see recovery and inflation down the road it will sell and there is nothing @federalreserve can do unless they buy trillions more. I not sure this is "it" but I do think the bond market is going to have the last laugh. I also agree this could last days or weeks.

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They who wish to hurt you, work within the law.
- Morrissey

Gold is theft.
Themortgagedude
Posts: 8843
Incept: 2007-12-17
Green
saint louis
Online
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It can't last for weeks at today's pace. We'd have mortgages at 7% and house prices 50% off in weeks.

Might be what we need but Ben isn't giving up yet.


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I'm already visualizing you with duct tape over your mouth.
Mayorquimby
Posts: 13909
Incept: 2008-09-18
Green
The Archaic Past
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Well not straight up for weeks but we could be well above 2.25 for a while. We shall see.

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They who wish to hurt you, work within the law.
- Morrissey

Gold is theft.
Loanman
Posts: 206
Incept: 2008-03-25

Chicago
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Im not buying any of this horse ****.
The world is suddenly free of risk? All just a little goose to the rates before the **** hits the fan.
Nothing will get money flowing back faster to the US treasuries than a war.
Israel v Iran coming soon.

Fookin book it

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Mt Flushmore
Paulson, Bernanke, Geithner & Franks
Liars,tax cheats,perjurers and thieves
Themortgagedude
Posts: 8843
Incept: 2007-12-17
Green
saint louis
Online
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When I think of The Bernank I often think of The Wiz.



He's not going down without blowing the whole ****ing thing to the moon.

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I'm already visualizing you with duct tape over your mouth.
Themortgagedude
Posts: 8843
Incept: 2007-12-17
Green
saint louis
Online
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I'm already visualizing you with duct tape over your mouth.
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