The Rally Monkey knows...

I predict 1500 at year end. All you have to do is use a ruler, it is easy. Don't let the macro environment confuse you.

Any time you are buying a stock you are buying future earnings plus cash on hand minus debt. There is a reason RIMM has a 3x trailing PE ratio.

Yes, forward it is a "guess," but typically most companies beat the "guess." I'm not saying stocks are cheap--I'm just saying its not crazy overvalued like some people on here are saying. If the market stays sideways for 1 year from now the PE ratio will be about 16-17/1.

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I'm just saying its not crazy overvalued like some people on here are saying

It is crazy overvalued. The yield is more important to me than anything else. I don't care what price is if I'm being compensated with yield.

Yield + Future Yield...even then...3.1% from a company like P&G that has consistently grown dividend for over 100 years is a lot better .25-.5% in your savings account. Plenty of solid companies with 2-4% yield. Sure--there are individual stocks that are ridiculous (amzn @ 135 trailing PE) but most stocks are in the 10-20 trailing PE range. Ex: Intel @ 11p/e ratio with 3.1% yield, msft at 11.8 pe ratio with 2.4% yield, wmt at 13.5 pe ratio with 2.6% yield, etc)

I'm not arguing against owning stocks in general. I'm just saying they are not a good deal right now. You are buying something that is overpriced and likely to fall and the protection you get from 1.88% isn't worth the risk at these levels imo. Owning liquid cashflow at a good price is wonderful but the smarter money bought the S&P at 4% not 1.8%. I'd be a buyer at lower levels but not here. I'd be a net seller here for sure. Bonds are more attractive at these levels.

I disagree that bonds are more attractive as the yields right now are ridiculously low..really there isn't a great investment out there right now..with ZIRP and free flowing money, having at least a good portion of your money in stocks is probably a good idea. I've been about 30% cash, 30% bonds, 40% stocks for most of the last year.

The real problem Magus is that the financial sector makes up far too much of that forward earnings in the S&P. We cannot trust those earnings since there is no transparency on their balance sheets. If Europe falls, you could see all the banks going from record profits to losses. What does that do to the PE.

If Europe falls, bond yields will soar here too after a brief run up. Gov will probably print and inflation will rear its head crushing cash even worse than it is now.

Like I said, there isn't any investment that has a good risk/reward right now. IMO bonds have a lot more risk than most stocks with very little upside potential here. I do not own any financial stocks directly and try to avoid them in mutual funds. There are plenty of companies (I mentioned a few above) that have low PE ratios and decent yields.

That may be true Magnus, but it does not explain the index itself. There will always be good individual stocks, but with the financial making up such a big part of the index there is a problem.

Bank earnings are about 13% of the S&P earnings. Not insignificant to be certain. I'm just really trying to get the point across that too many people on this board are not in stocks at all (of any kind) yet hold other assets that are also very risky. I think diversification is the name of the game here, along with be nimble. JMO

Dividend yield with Apple & boosts...

http://www.forbes.com/sites/thestreet/20....

Only 19 Handles to new highs.

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the yield on the S&P 500 could reach close to 3% this year.

Making stocks a terrible buy at these levels...

Going back to MAR high(s) 1420 or so

RUT, GDOW, transports, banks, all nowhere near 52 week highs. What is making new highs is junk -- literal JNK, and retail. These two sectors have been used as a risky and desperate grasp-for-yield play for anyone sitting on a large amount of treasuries. (The logic is 10-20% risky assets, 80-90% safe assets, for a blended yield of 4-6%)

The problem is that JNK has led since 2009, and it would be foolish to outright trade against it. But my own indicator says the market is about to crack, and to be in cash. In 3 years of backtesting I have no reason not to trust it. Accuracy in the summer months is pretty much 100%.

Woooooooooo Hooooooooooooo! This thread is like an old friend...

Jb-

agreed. you can easily point out where the funny money is being stuffed.

Goog, Apple, Netflix (they were stuffed too much and blew though), ****ing Chipotle, etc.

priceline.com Incorporated (PCLN)

After Hours: 572.50 Down 107.30 (15.78%)

hum...bought a lotto 590 put today on PCLN....will it continue down to $500 area before opex or do i take money and run when it opens in AM? A while back someone in technical had thread about a power trend using CMG as an example and was interesting to see what happened when those railroad tracks crossed before earnings. I bought the PCLN put based on a very simalar set up. CMG got knocked down to below where the "pewer trend" began. If same happens for PCLN it is below $500. For those interested, a similar pattern is set up for MNST which reports tomorrow. Be curious of others' thoughts about whether PCLN might continue down into OPEX. Wish i bought more than one lotto ticket.

HWB long

HWB short

HWB long

etc

I APOLIGIZE not sure where this post should go...back in the day i believe there would be a lively discussion about this stock...am i in the wrong area or do i need spespial permission to talk aboug this kind of thing?

Meh, chat away - we're a bunch of grumpy ****s still trying to learn how to read tape

-Bill

ext held

will it hold

1420

YES

That bear took a huge dildo in the *******



look for retrace

1420???????????????