7% on the 10Y? Wasn't that the so-called "point-of-no-return" for Spain? Or am I thinking of Italy?

5y Spain open 6.622% now 6.528%
10y Spain open 7.173% now 7.137%

10y Italy open 6.077% now 6.016%

looks like someone at the ECB have managed to get in the office before 10:00 AM

From BB Radio:

Spanish banks need up to $78B in capital, according to the Spanish government.

Is that all? Rally on.

Quote:

Spanish banks need up to 62,000 million in the worst case scenario

Spanish banks need between 51,000 and 62,000 million euros to address a cumulative fall in GDP of 6.5% until 2014, according to results published by the Government and the Bank of Spain for the stress tests conducted by Roland Berger consultants and Oliver Wyman.

EFE

Thursday, June 21, 2012 - 18:00 pm.

In a press conference at the Ministry of Economy, the Deputy Governor of the Bank of Spain, Fernando Restoy, unveiled this range and stressed that the EU aid of up to 100 billion euros will be more than enough.

We are talking about manageable numbers, added the Secretary of State for Economy, Fernando Jiménez Latorre.

According to Roland Berger, in the most adverse of scenario estimates, the bulk of the Spanish financial institutions - 14 entities - need about 51,800 million, while for Oliver Wyman, they will require between 51,000 and 62,000 million euros.

All this to maintain a capital ratio of at least 6% in a scenario in which the cumulative fall in GDP is 6.5% through 2014, compared with 5.4% used in the exercise conducted recently by the IMF.

In this scenario, housing prices would fall by another 26.4% (compared to 23.5% from the IMF), which would translate into a collapse of between 55% and 60% since the peak of the bubble, and for land, between 85% and 90%.

The three main conclusions of the study, according to Restoy, is that everything seems to indicate that capital needs will be concentrated in entities that currently participate in the FROB, such as Bankia, CatalunyaCaixa, Novagalicia and Banco de Valencia.

The larger institutions, Banco Santander, BBVA and CaixaBank would not need additional capital even in that adverse scenario, while a third group, which would be seven entities, could get by their own means or with some form of "moderate" public aid.

Given such, for both Restoy and Jimenez Latorre, the core of the Spanish financial sector has the capacity to withstand macroeconomic scenarios as adverse as those contemplated, and that the 100 billion euros available proportion a "vast" margin.

http://www.invertia.com/noticias/banca-e....

Google Translate es una maravilla. Sólo tuve que hacer unos cuantos retoques, ¡y listo!

Why the hell do things like this take forever to get translated into the English press?

Quote:

In this scenario, housing prices would fall by another 26.4% (compared to 23.5% from the IMF), which would translate into a collapse of between 55% and 60% since the peak of the bubble, and for land, between 85% and 90%.

Huh. That is almost exactly what Moody's predicted about Ireland last week. They are already down ~50% from their 2007 peak:

http://tickerforum.org/akcs-www?post=207....

I wonder if that is the new rule of thumb in Europe?

And holy crap: land prices down ~85%? How does agiculture financing work at that point?

Quote:

Why the hell do things like this take forever to get translated into the English press?

Porque no hay confianza de los periodistas en Google Translate. Google Translate no es una "traducción legal" (lea las reglas de uso) y aún no considerando el problema de los diferentes dialectos del Castellano (Argentina, México, Republica Dominicana, Cuba, Puerto Rico, etc.) en muchos mercados de noticias hay razonable miedo de pleitos légales.

¡Por ejemplo, considere el hilo en "The Bar" sobre los melones de mujeres!

Ya, pero, de todos modos, se supone que tienes un nivel para corregir los errores de Google Translate. No sugería que se usase Google Translate a secas, sin más, sino como una herramienta que simplemente facilita el trabajo. Perdóname por la confusión. No quería proponer Google Translate como un fin en sí, sino una herramienta. Primero tienes que controlar, tanto el "castellaño" de Madríd, como el "español" de Buenos Aires, en fin, para empezar, tienes que ser capaz de hacer la traducción tu solito sin ayuda (and the lack of qualified people in this area might be the answer to my question - the other possible answer is that the news organizations just aren't interested in really getting the information out and they prefer half-truths), y luego, Google Translate sólo figura como una ayuda que recorta el tiempo de traducción en, hombre, no sé, pero me atrevería decir en un 75%, y eso se dice pronto. ¿Me explico? Perdona la confusión.

Add: At least those incompetent, party circuit journalists are smart enough to know their own limitations and not do something that makes them look any more stupid than they already are (like using Google Translate without understanding its limitations and that the translator MUST correct the errors that will always be there in automated translations - but Google Translate is one of the best I've seen), or is it just that their bosses have jumped on them for having done it before?.

They can read a disclaimer and understand it. I'll give them that much.
I guess I should have put a disclaimer below my original post: DON'T TRY THIS AT HOME.

Add2: It occurred to me to put what I just wrote into Google Translate just for fun, and what a garbled mess came out. I haven't used it that much, but just as communication itself gets more complicated the further away you move from the present simple tense, it seemed logical to expect an inverse relationship with Google Translate and that the further you move away from the present tense, that is to say, the more complicated the syntax and grammar and subject matter being communicated, the worse Google Translate gets, and that's obviously the case. I'm not going to even bother to "backtest" further - I'm happy with my sampling.

This study no doubt is very optimistic, as all such studies are. Rest assured the banks need more. Secondly they did not account for the regional governments' plight (it was not their task). Thirdly they did not mention that "austerity" means further deficit spending (not their task either}

What they basically said was that 100B Euros was nowhere near enough so of course MSM reported "party on!"

Big moves today

10y opened 6.628% closed 6.358%
5y opened 6.081% closed 5.679%

when you are buying your own bonds CAn you set your own rates ? Ya right

like the Fed does?

Hard to think of a reason other than ECB intervention -- all through this week the Spanish and Italian bond yields have gone down with no positive news whatsoever. We'll know next week. Maybe...

Well the formal request for no particular amount has been made...

http://www.cnbc.com/id/47943766

Capital Controls Hit Spain: Government Laws Prohibit Cash Transactions Over €2,500; Minimum Fine of €10,000 for Failure to Report Foreign Accounts
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.c....

Translated article from larazon
http://translate.google.com/translate?hl....

Well. That's bullish, right?

Goes without saying, Asimov.

Talk about instantly creating the busiest ****ing black market in history, in record time no less. I'd be doing cash and barter ONLY, except in the case of buying anything from the state - I'd use whatever credit available against them only.

Jeez, unintended consequences indeed.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-06-26....

Partial quote:

Quote:

Spain is poised for a downgrade to junk by Moody’s Investors Service, according to investors who sent the cost of default insurance for the nation’s biggest banks and companies close to record highs.

SAN (the new STD), BBVA, and RBS took a leg down (in US trading) around an hour ago.

Poised for a downgrade - what the hell Argos?

How do you downgrade "absolute dog****?"

Quote:

How do you downgrade "absolute dog****?"

Absolute dog**** piled in heaps in a 10-foot underground cellar?

Spain's economic crisis turns middle-class families into illegal squatters


By F. Brinley Bruton, msnbc.com
TERRASSA, Spain -- Ana Valderrama and Tony Cortes do not look like squatters.

The suburban apartment they've illegally occupied since December is free of clutter. Its stone floors shine while two poster-sized pictures of daughters Jennifer, seven, and Ariadna, 11, hang on gleaming white walls.

Twelve months ago, life was very different.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Valderrama, 36, and Cortes, 38, had both been out of work for more than two years. Unable to maintain payments on their 102,000-euro (around $128,000 at today’s exchange rates) mortgage, the couple lost their home in this commuter town about 12 miles north of Barcelona.

>snip<

Destitution
While sophisticated and fun-loving Barcelona serves as the country's showcase to the world, Terrassa is among the many towns hiding Spain's shame: Despite boasting Europe's fourth-largest economy, hundreds of thousands have been forced into destitution by the country's housing crash.

Many Spaniards now exist on the margins of a society that just a few years ago promised them easy access to cars, holiday homes, trips abroad and regular tickets to professional soccer games.

The crisis was born out of a mighty housing and construction bubble that saw house prices triple between 1995 and 2007. They've fallen by at least a quarter since then.

About one out of every four people in Spain is without a job, according to government statistics. However, the large so-called "gray economy" mitigates the effects of unemployment, the IMF says.
In 2010, court evictions hit 100,000 – four times the total in 2007. About 200 homes are repossessed every day across Spain, according to the Platform for People Affected by Mortgages (PAH) campaign group.

These repossessions continue despite a voluntary ethical code (HUH!? thier kidding right?),, signed by many banks that is intended to delay evictions by two years in cases of families with no income. Still, an estimated 20 percent of the country’s unoccupied homes are now owned by banks, The Economist reported.



Full Story @ link...--> http://worldnews.msnbc.msn.com/_news/201....