Now a *Cherry*

000
ABNT20 KNHC 250037
TWOAT

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
840 PM EDT THU MAY 24 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...LOCATED BETWEEN THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS AND SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA...HAS GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR THE FORMATION OF A
SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE BY SATURDAY OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN OFF OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

Wow, from 20% to 60% in less than 24 hours... in May... from the western Caribbean, no less.

It's no Katrina, but it strikes me as being just a bit out of the norm for this time of year, when we're watching CV waves crossing the Atlantic and wondering which one of them is going to spin up.

Good rain for Southeast:

Yeah, we need it too. It's been a very dry spring here in NE Florida.

-Uwe-

I live in what's basically a little wooden shack on the river and will probably be stuffing towels under the door but yeah, we need the rain so bring it.

Pretty...

It's still partly sunny here, but the wind is really picking up and the ocean is, well, rather lively.



-Uwe-

Prettier..

That first big band is right over the top of me. Winds were stronger earlier though. Sub tropical means winds stronger out from the center and that's just how it was. Not enough rain. Looks like it will go right over the top of me and is heading in to the gulf. Who knows what that means.

Just short of hurricane strength.

Live feed from News 4 Jacksonville:
http://www.news4jax.com/-/475982/3991404....

Thread needs to be renamed...

Res, I think he did it. Lol.

Where is Bezzle these days? He like Karl could have done Meteorology

Good bit of rain down here in Flagler County now (about 60 miles south of Jacksonville). Wind isn't too bad though.

-Uwe-

Honestly, they should've bumped this to a Cat 1... News 4 Jacksonville clocked 76 MPH windspeed at landfall.

Its possible that in post analysis this one may be upgraded to a Cat 1. Right now nothing "official" from NHC. I dont think they had recon in it at landfall either. Wind readings at altitude did not support cat 1 earlier this evening.

On a wx blog I read someone brought up an interesting fact..Beryl is the second strongest May land falling tropical system in US history! Quite impressive for May.

Recon didn't fly today:

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE FIX MISSION INTO
BERYL NEAR 33.5N 78.0W FOR 30/1200Z AFTER IT RE-EMERGES
OVER THE ATLANTIC.

Pilot's right... a western Caribbean disturbance advects into the Atlantic and spins up into a tropical storm just shy of hurricane strength, in May. Very impressive.

Quote:

Where is Bezzle these days? He like Karl could have done Meteorology

Bezzle handled "Winter" Storms etc, I'm the Tropical Dude...(remember We had it out over that Issue Last year)...

Interesting to note:

Hurricane or not, even if we assume a very low estimate of 50kt max sustained winds at landfall...Beryl is the strongest recorded TC to hit the US in May since 1908. In 104 years.

If it truly is a 60kt (or higher) landfall, it is the strongest US May hit on record (since HURDAT considers the 1908 storm a 55kt hit).

In the satellite era, the only system that really even compares to Beryl is Alpha of 1972, which hit GA as a 45kt subtropical storm.

Any way you put it, this is a rare breed.

In addition it May help this.

Here in northern Flagler county, it's gray and overcast this morning. There's a bit more rain on the way, but the ocean is back to normal. In fact I'm quite surprised how calm it is; there's not a whitecap to be seen anywhere.

-Uwe-

Quote:

Honestly, they should've bumped this to a Cat 1... News 4 Jacksonville clocked 76 MPH windspeed at landfall.

Was that a peak value, or an average value over some period of time?

If that was a peak reading, it's meaningless as far as the categorization of the storm.

-Uwe-

Uwe, not sure if the measurement was sustained windspeed or a gust.

Power just came back on here for me in Green Cove. When the wind shifted from the South we got a lot more rain. I laid a heavy duty door mat up against the base of the back door and put a log in it and it kept the rain from blowing under the door. Why hadn't I thought of that before. Usually after these events I've got a wet rug to deal with. Not this time! I didn't hear one bolt of thunder and saw no lightning. Just a welcomed soaker hopefully that put out a few dozen brush fires. Everything is bright green even the moss on the trees.

fyi off topic

we had a thunderstorm pop up last night, we got 2 inches in 1 hour. It was raining at a faster pace then the hurricane that hit us last fall.

Tropical storm and hurricane ratings are one minute sustained winds; gusts are often 20mph+ better than sustained.

Beryl was right on the edge in the NW quadrant, but not by much. It may get post-hoc upgraded, but I wouldn't bet on it.