For what it is worth:

this guy any good?

His books are interesting reading and the first book I read 20+years ago called for a recession about when I retired in 2010, so he wasn't too off. His theories are based on the age demographics which relates to spending habits.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harry_Dent

Harry S. Dent, Jr. (born 1950) is an American financial newsletter writer. His latest book, The Great Depression Ahead, appeared on the New York Times Bestseller List.

Biography

Dent was born in Columbia, South Carolina, United States, North America. His father was Harry S. Dent, Sr..

Dent received his B.A. from the University of South Carolina, where he graduated #1 in his class. He earned an MBA from the Harvard Business School as a Baker Scholar.[citation needed]

Dent is the Founder of HS Dent Investment Management, an investment firm based in Tampa, Florida that advises the Dent Strategic Portfolio Fund mutual fund. Dent is also the president and founder of the H.S. Dent Foundation and H.S. Dent Publishing.

Dent writes an economic newsletter that reviews the economy in the US and around the world through demographic trends focusing on predictable consumer spending patterns, as well as financial markets, and has written seven books, of which two recent ones have been bestsellers:

    The Great Crash Ahead (2011)
    The Great Depression Ahead (2009)
    The Next Great Bubble Boom (2006)
    The Roaring 2000s Investor (1999)
    The Roaring 2000s (1998)
    The Great Jobs Ahead (1995)
    The Great Boom Ahead (1993)
    Our Power to Predict (1989)

The basis of Dent's research is the highly predictable nature of consumer spending based on a family's formation pattern: minimal spending as young adults, increased spending while rearing children, peaking their spending as their children leave home, and then slowing spending during the last 15 years of working life (48-63) while saving more and preparing for retirement.

In the late 1980s, Dent forecast that the Japanese economy, then the darling of the world, would soon enter a slowdown that would last more than a decade. In the early 1990s, he predicted that the DOW would reach 10k. Both of these predictions were met with much skepticism, and yet both eventually came to pass.

In Japan, Dent was using their peak of 45-50 year olds (1990–1994) as the beginning of a long slowdown. In the US, he used, and continues to use, the peak year for 48-year-olds, 2009, as the top of a long term growth pattern.

In 2000, based on his forecast that economic growth would continue throughout the 2000s, Dent predicted that the DOW would reach 40k, a prediction which was repeated in his 2004 book. In his book, he also predicted the NASDAQ would reach 13-20k. In late 2006 he revised his forecasts to much lower levels, estimating the Dow would reach 16-18k and the NASDAQ 3-4k. In January 2006, he predicted that the DOW would reach 14-15k by the end of the year. It ended 2006 at 12,463, 11% below the lower end of his prediction. It ended 2007 at 13,264, again significantly lower than Dent's revised prediction of 15,000 by early 2008. Since then, the Dow crossed 14,000 in late 2007 before retreating.

Dent popularized the baby boomer spending wave theory.[1] According to him, after baby-boomers' children leave home, they begin paying down debt and saving for retirement, which means spending less. That means the stock-market would have plateaued between 2007 and 2009, and remain basically flat through the fourth quarter of 2011.

His 2011 book goes on to suggest consumer spending will begin to plummet in 2012 with the Dow bottoming out somewhere between 3,000 and 5,600 in 2014. After hitting bottom, stocks will experience a mini-rally in 2015-2017 before falling into a final bottom during the 2019-2023 period, when the 45-50 age group troughs because the U.S. birth rate reached its own low in 1973.[2]
Criticism

Dent makes heavy use of charts, cycles, and trends, apart from his demographic theories in predicting short and intermediate term economic and stock cycles. His work is based primarily on the assumption that most long term stock market performance can be explained by long-term trends and charts from the past. His critics question the assumption that clues to all major stock market events can be found in the relatively short history of well functioning stock markets in the world. His work has been criticized also for heavy use of data dredging - where it is easy to find patterns in past data and assign predictive powers to them when many such patterns occur in every data collection purely by chance. Dent has been criticized also by many economists for being downright wrong in several of his predictions. In fact, www.maxfunds.com, a financial reporting site awarded him the The "Ultimate Charlatan"[3] Award. They write: "The worst investing advice usually arrives near the top and bottom of stock market cycles. Demographic trends guru Harry S. Dent is making the rounds again, and touting his latest book, The Great Depression Ahead: How to Prosper in the Crash Following the Greatest Boom in History ...." In his 2006 work, Dent predicted, “The Dow hitting 40,000 by the end of the decade, the NASDAQ['s] advancing at least ten times from its October 2001 lows to around 13,500, and potentially as high as 20,000 by 2009 … The Great Boom['s] resurging into its final and strongest stage in 2007, and even more fully in 2008, lasting until late 2009 to early 2010.” Of course, those who read The Roaring 2000s, Dent's 1999 masterpiece, should soon be buying each of us a turkey with all the fixin's. According to the book, only a year remains before the Dow breaks 40,000 and the Nasdaq hits 20,000, at which time we'll simply amplify our fortunes by shorting stocks in the coming depression. We can’t underestimate how big this final move up will be before the depression kicks in, since The Dow and Nasdaq are currently quite a bit lower than they were back in 1999 when The Roaring 2000s was published."

============================
The Next Great Bubble Boom: How to Profit from the Greatest Boom in History, 2005-2009
http://www.amazon.com/The-Next-Great-Bub....

Book Description
Publication Date: September 2004

Quote:

For over fifteen years, "New York Times" bestselling author Harry S. Dent, Jr., has been uncannily accurate in predicting the financial future. In his three previous works, Dent predicted the financial recession of the early nineties, the economic expansion of the mid-nineties, and the financial free-for-all of 1998-2000.

"The Next Great Bubble Boom" -- part crystal ball, part financial planner -- offers a comprehensive forecast for the next two decades, showing new models for predicting the future behavior of the economy, inflation, large- and small-cap stocks, bonds, key sectors, and so on. In taking a look at past booms and busts, Dent compares our current state to that of the crash of 1920-21, and the years ahead of us to the Roaring Twenties. Dent gives advice on everything from investment strategies to real estate cycles, and shows not only how bright our future will be but how best to profit from it.

Dent gives us all something to look forward to, including:

The Dow hitting 40,000 by the end of the decade
The Nasdaq advancing at least ten times from its October 2001 lows to around 13,500, and potentially as high as 20,000 by 2009
Another strong advance in stocks in 2005, with a significant correction into around September/October 2006
The Great Boom resurging into its final and strongest stage in 2007, and even more fully in 2008, lasting until late 2009 to early 2010

Dent's amazing ability to track and forecast our financial future is renowned, and here he takes that ability to the next level, showing not only what our economy will look like but also how it will affect us as individuals, as organizations, and as a culture. From the upcoming wealth revolution to the essential principles of entrepreneurial success, the book describes a new society where economic and philanthropic development go hand in hand.

In "The Next Great Bubble Boom, " Dent shows not only how the economic growth of the late 1990s was a prelude to the true great boom right around the corner but how all of us can reap its benefits.

Review

Quote:

David Bach"New York Times" bestselling author of "The Automatic Millionaire"Nobody called the nineties boom and bubble like Harry Dent, and now he is calling for another unexpected bull market. All investors should take notice.

From the Inside Flap

Quote:

Harry S. Dent has been among the most successful forecasters of his time: His books The Great Boom Ahead and The Roaring 2000s predicted the 1990s boom ahead of anyone else.

In this new, provocative look at the coming years, Dent again casts his discerning contrarian eye on what he sees as the good times to come—and the woes to follow. Among his key predictions:

• A third and final bubble takes the Dow to 35,000 to 40,000 and the Nasdaq to 13,000 by late 2009 or early 2010.

• A second technology boom brings cellular, Internet, and broadband connections to 90% of U.S. households by 2009.

• Inflation falls into early 2006 and rises mildly into 2009; then we see deflation between 2010 and 2023.

• Another devastating crash occurs between 2010 and 2012, which ushers in a thirteen-year bear market into 2022.

• Technology, financial services, health care, and Asia will be the best sectors from 2005 to 2009. Long-term bonds, health care, and Asia will be the best after 2009.

For someone whose forecasts are generally like 20 years in advance, he does ok. I'm not sure I'd use him for exact timing calls though - his correctness seems to be +/-2 years or so.

He's been around for a long time, essentially looking at a demographic viewpoint - and extrapolating that into economics.

His father was well known in SC as a political advisor to Nixon, highly regarded in Southern circles.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harry_S._De....

His father had an excellent grasp of people and situations, so I'm thinking Jr grew up in a good environment for what he does.

AS to whether or not he will be accurate on this particular item, when you make calls that far out - a lot can happen, the dow didn't get to 40k, so it's still somewhat of a crap shoot, and you have to make up your own mind.

If the central banks embark on a printing spree the likes of which the world has never imagined, and can keep it up for, oh say 20 years - or even ten or 15, I think the equities markets will go along for the ride.

So, I would need to know if or how Dent is allowing for central bank activities with his projections to see if that makes sense or not.

Quote:

His 2011 book goes on to suggest consumer spending will begin to plummet in 2012 with the Dow bottoming out somewhere between 3,000 and 5,600 in 2014. After hitting bottom, stocks will experience a mini-rally in 2015-2017 before falling into a final bottom during the 2019-2023 period

That all seems pretty logical, maybe it's only a 50% chance it's gonna work out that way. But 50% chance is enough to keep me in CDs for 5 more years at 2/3%, screw it, I ain't missing the stress of having to think about it.

I am very, very much on board with the idea that the current rally, is largely an echo of the 30% rally occurring earlier this year and that the good news for 2012 has already occurred....and was a GIFT from the stock market gods. Staying in the market at this point is waiting around for the last 3-7% (and I am being generous) while being vulnerable to a potentially devastating correction.

Unfortunately I am in the exact position with trust funds (1/3rd mine) and a brother who has no selling discipline whatsoever. He got into the market big time Feb 21, '11 with:

SPY (then) 135.6 (now) 135.5
MDY (then) 173.7 (now) 170.3
QQQ (then) 58.4 (now) 64.3

In other words, other than divs, he's barely ahead and the market has proven (as far as I'm concerned) that he had a bad entry on most of this stuff, having chased his way in on Feb 21, 2011. The port has been as much as $58K down and as much as $30K up. But he won't take anything off. I've pointed out local tops FOUR TIMES. He just will not listen to anything I say about it.

I solidly agree: There may be a tad more upside left, but staying around for it is not compelling, considering the risks.

I hope folks listen to him. The rally since March of 09 has definitely been a gift, so has every paycheck. So say "thank you" and grab your cash. With this much uncertainty, no joke, investors should get the dee-dog-**** out. The risk/reward is way out of whack. The only place I'd disagree with Mr. Dent, is that if the bear/deflationist thesis is wrong it should be evident by Inauguration Day in January. IOW, I think the **** is going to hit the fan much quicker than he's projecting, a la fall of 2008. Don't find yourself down twenty percent, holding on and wondering if "this is it," then waking up the next morning down fifty more handles. Ook.

Quote:

If the central banks embark on a printing spree the likes of which the world has never imagined, and can keep it up for, oh say 20 years - or even ten or 15, I think the equities markets will go along for the ride.

How do you do this when increasing numbers of people can't afford to eat?

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How do you do this when increasing numbers of people can't afford to eat?

Ben doesn't care.

Don't forget, in the US the government killed cattle and let the carcasses rot when people didn't have enough to eat.

Unless they kill the Internet, that won't happen again. In the 30s, no one outside the immediate area knew the Feds were doing such monumentally stupid and venal things. Now, they get outed right away when they rip out someone's garden or raid a farm with raw milk.

They may do other fascist things, but not with food.

Tesla: But they are already doing that with hogs in some state.

Yeah, but we all knew about it before and as it was occurring, and some are taking steps to ensure it doesn't happen again. Of course, whether that's effective or not, only time will tell.

Quote:

. . . some are taking steps to ensure it doesn't happen again.

I don't see any concrete steps that actually restrain the system. The system seems to be getting ever more powerful.

The FDA is still legally unconstrained as far as going after raw milk, etc. producers/distributors, local gov'ts are still legally unconstrained as far as getting rid of "unsightly" edible gardens, Michigan (and I expect other states, as well) are still legally unconstrained from declaring certain species of livestock as "not allowed", etc.

Sure, some people may be able to hide/disguise what they are doing and can thereby avoid being steamrollered by the system on an individual basis, but that doesn't change the fact that the system is still able to restrict/control/whatever, in the aggregate, people's ability to sustain themselves.

Then you're not paying attention:
http://organicconsumers.org/monsanto/ind....
http://www.naturalnews.com/036085_organi....
http://www.farmtoconsumer.org/raw_milk_m....
http://vbs20.com/bakers/?p=1680#more-168....

Everywhere you look, people are fighting back. When enough people wake up, the bureaucrats are going to be out of jobs. It'll take way too long, but it's coming.

Should it happen at all ? Of course not...but how many people accept zoning and EPA incursions because it doesn't affect them ? Critical mass and attention is being reached, and pushback has begun.

Quote:

Critical mass and attention is being reached . . .

Not that I can discern.

The links you cite do not reach, nor are they even on the radar screen of, the large majority of the population. Perhaps it's a matter of location, but from what I can observe, even when, for example, the raw milk issue, the "unsightly" garden issue, and the Michigan "feral swine" issue, is even mentioned in the MSM, it is treated as an example of some eccentrics or "nuts" opposing perfectly reasonable civilizing attempts by a wise and benevolent gov't. And, IMO, the vast majority of people appear to take that at face value or not give a crap about it at all.

While I wish that you were correct about rising awareness and pushback, I see no evidence of efficacious pushback at this point.

I like the concept of a long range forecast so much I always have more than one!

It's a marker in the sand and if people weren't willing to toss them down from time to time there's nothing to gauge the short term against except for the past. We've all heard the warnings of past performance! Plot out your greatest hopes and your worst fears and put down a mark when each of them is supported or shaken. Back your position by your actions and effect change by your words and deeds. Mark our claims on life, if only by our humble words and projections.

So draw those lines in the sand say I for in my most bullish forecast (and wildest dreams) if an endangered baby bird were to fall out of a nest, an army of nanny-nanobot spiders would be there with a web to catch and return it. That was the NASDAQ 200K wet dream IIRC.

Tesla wrote..

Everywhere you look, people are fighting back. When enough people wake up, the bureaucrats are going to be out of jobs. It'll take way too long

I dunno. I don't see very much of that in my local paper, nor do I hear anything in social conversations.

Sadly, I think we have much further to go. The awakening is very slow.

I wish Tesla were correct, but I just see very few examples. More like the idiots in the "these boomers are idiots" thread.

I really believe that subservient behavior and support the system is much of what is taught in the public school system. Critical thinking certainly is not.

Quote:

Everywhere you look, people are fighting back. When enough people wake up, the bureaucrats are going to be out of jobs. It'll take way too long, but it's coming

You're living in a dreamworld. We are quite a ways off from the average sheep waking up and resisting.

...maybe because I hang out with a mostly semi-rural crowd. Go to any farmer's market, CSA pickup/drop point, farm store, etc and you'll hear quite a bit about it. I also hear about the code nazis from my very well-off friends in the horse world. Even the liberals - media people like Jon Stewart have done a bunch of skits/articles about authority overstepping its bounds and big corporation's grip on food supply enough to make people aware that loss of freedom in the food production and consumption departments is negatively impacting us all.

Look around you, ask a subtle leading question, and then listen. People are waking up...just not fast enough, unfortunately.

62% retrace of the first major downmove after a rally is always the best time to get out. If it continues retracing well above 62% then maybe get back in. In this case that is about 1370. Until it breaks above that line it is foolish to be long.

I'm with Tesla, here, and suspect you folks who find her story unbelievable are affected by your exposure to MSM, and, perhaps, your choice of location. Virtually everyone I know in this area is exquisitely aware of what's happening in this arena, and are ACTIVELY working the other direction. Were the FDA to show up to a farm in this valley trying to get in the way of raw milk purchases, I doubt very seriously they'd survive the day.

Tesla's and Truthseeker's POVs are heavily influenced by the locale they live in, the people they associate with, etc., just as mine is (and others' as well). I happen to live in the suburbs near a major urban area. Based on the 2000 census, the urban/rural population ratio was about 80%/20%. Thus even if 100% of the rural population is up in arms against these types of gov't encroachments, it would still take over a third of the urban/suburban population to bring that up to just half the country. Based on everything I've been able to observe, even the awareness, much less actual concern, levels of the urban population is way short of that.

The problem is that, on a numerical basis and on a political influence basis, it is the urban/suburban areas that have the greatest clout on who gets elected, what the governing priorities tend to be, etc., etc. For those reasons only, I do not believe that the overall level of attention/concern/outrage/whatever of the population is nearly at the level that Tesla and Truth believe it is.

Not arguing that the issues do not deserve more attention/concern/outrage/whatever, just that it is not anywhere close to "critical mass" at a national level.

I watch almost no MSM, and am not in a rural environment.

While I have other friendships, much/many of the people my wife and I associate with are well-educated, middle income to upper middle income, and _they_ get fed a stream of pablum by the MSM.

I'm saying that I see very little of what Tesla and Truth are seeing. I do not find her statements unbelievable, I'm saying I don't see much of that in my daily contacts, social and business contacts.

I wish I did see more, but not much of it here.