Getting the thread started.

Quote:

1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS WESTERN CUBA TO SOUTHERN FLORIDA. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
BEYOND THAT TIME...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND INTERESTS ALONG THE ENTIRE UNITED STATES GULF
COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. HEAVY RAINS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN CUBA...AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH
SATURDAY.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml

Now Invest 96L - NHC has upgraded development chances to 70%. That's quite a jump in such a short timeframe, but watching the satellite loops, seems to be organizing fairly quickly.

Recon will be flying in tomorrow - it'll be interesting to see what they find:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU JUN 21 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON RECENTLY
DOWNGRADED TROPICAL STORM CHRIS...LOCATED ABOUT 585 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND.

A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHERN COAST
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS PRODUCING AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF
CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA...AND ALSO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN AND CENTRAL
CUBA...SOUTHERN FLORIDA...AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. SATELLITE
DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER DEFINED AND SURFACE PRESSURES ARE
SLOWLY FALLING ACROSS THE AREA. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ALSO
IMPROVING AND ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT
OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO. INTERESTS ALONG THE ENTIRE UNITED STATES GULF COAST
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS LARGE DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. HEAVY RAINS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN CUBA...AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH
SATURDAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED
TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM TOMORROW AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

I'll post a update tomorrow from the SLOP-A-GYRO that is bubbling in the BoC tomorrow morning, updates & thoughts.. errg pain meds....

Up to 80% now...

This has been one helluva messy system.

Meh, mid-June, what can you say, still early as far as the tropical storm season goes.

Center of low level circulation has shifted from just north of the central Yucatan coast to just north of Cancun, with the overall disturbance expected to move to the north, initially.

It looks like this system might be finally getting stacked and organized.

So will Debby do Dallas ?

I looked, reminds Me of.....

1998 Earl at peak (Category 2) Intensity
yuck--> exposed LLC--> http://aviationweather.gov/adds/satellit....

Recon's having a look now.

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

BUOY OBSERVATIONS...SATELLITE DATA...AND PRELIMINARY RECONNAISSANCE
DATA INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL STORM MAY BE FORMING IN THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. IF THE PLANE IS ABLE TO IDENTIFY A WELL-DEFINED
SURFACE WIND CIRCULATION...THEN ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Tropical Storm Debby:

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al042012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201206231904
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END

DEBBY, AL, L, , , , , 04, 2012, TS, O, 2012062118, 9999999999, , , , , , WARNING, 4, AL042012

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves....

This system is totally freakin out the algos.

Clipper 5 has it going right over Gen's house and up my way. Wouldn't mind the rain.

Yep, NHC went with the Euro... a very rare decision, as they usually like the GFS guidance. Even though the GFS operational insists on an eastern track into FLA, a good number of the GFS ensemble members take it WSW into the lower Texas coast.

Looks like shear is easing off, which should give Debby an opportunity to get vertically stacked.

Pressure now down to 998mb. NHC projects Debby at hurricane strength with landfall on the lower Texas coast on Friday.

Quote:

This system is totally freakin out the algos.

A Squashed Spider if i may add..

It was preety cool watching the exposed LLC yesterday, seeing the meso-vortices dancing around with-in the broader CoC, doing some cool fugiwara effects. Question being which of these meso-Vortices will become the Dominate Feature, consoladating all this Slop-a-gyro in to Cane...

Though, The key question is whether the right shift is for real or just some windshield wiping. It is interesting how rigidly consistent the GFS has been with the FL solution-- and how the Euro has now "blinked".

I'm rolling with the GFS Train ATM, Landfall anywhere from FL/LA...
The NHC is in a awkward position ATM with Forcasted track/strength etc, as noted in the Early morning overnight disco..

Quote:

WITH INFRARED IMAGERY THE CENTER...ALTHOUGH PARTIALLY EXPOSED...HAS
BECOME A LITTLE MORE DIFFICULT TO LOCATE AND THE FIXES FROM TAFB
AND SAB ARE ABOUT 50 MILES APART. MY BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL
MOTION IS SLOWLY NORTHWARD...OR 360/3. THE TRACK FORECAST FOR THIS
STORM IS EXTREMELY CHALLENGING.

Latest obs.....

Quote:

Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)
Transmitted: 24th day of the month at 11:11Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number: 04
Storm Name: Debby (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 03

Part A...

Date: Near the closest hour of 11Z on the 24th day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 500mb
Coordinates: 28.9N 86.6W
Location: 105 miles (168 km) to the SSW (213°) from Panama City, FL, USA.
Marsden Square: 081 (About)
Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed 1001mb (29.56 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 23.6°C (74.5°F) 22.0°C (71.6°F) 60° (from the ENE) 55 knots (63 mph) 1000mb 13m (43 ft) 23.4°C (74.1°F) 21.8°C (71.2°F) 60° (from the ENE) 57 knots (66 mph) 925mb 692m (2,270 ft) 20.4°C (68.7°F) 16.4°C (61.5°F) 55° (from the NE) 70 knots (81 mph) 850mb 1,424m (4,672 ft) 18.8°C (65.8°F) Approximately 14°C (57°F) 45° (from the NE) 64 knots (74 mph) 700mb 3,070m (10,072 ft) 11.2°C (52.2°F) 9.2°C (48.6°F) 75° (from the ENE) 43 knots (49 mph) 500mb 5,810m (19,062 ft) -2.3°C (27.9°F) -2.7°C (27.1°F) 120° (from the ESE) 18 knots (21 mph)

Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 10:44Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.

Remarks Section...

Splash Location: 28.86N 86.66W
Splash Time: 10:51Z

Release Location: 28.9N 86.56W
Release Time: 10:44:01Z

Splash Location: 28.86N 86.66W
Splash Time: 10:51:49Z

Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 60° (from the ENE)
- Wind Speed: 67 knots (77 mph)

Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 65° (from the ENE)
- Wind Speed: 44 knots (51 mph)
- Depth of Sounding: From 486mb to 1001mb

7am obs..

Quote:

AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.0 WEST. DEBBY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H. THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WESTWARD TURN
TONIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
DEBBY WILL BE MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM
FROM THE CENTER TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. BALD POINT IN THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 37 MPH...60
KM/H WITH GUSTS TO 43 MPH...69 KM/H.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
WAS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.

Where's Bezzle...? - he knows this stuff...

Bezzel is still studying the Tropics classes...
he's good for Winter Storms, i'm the Tropics guy..
(remember Him and I had it out over 1 or 2 "Canes", He kepted INSISTING a TX landfall, Karls house... I scored a coup on Him... With a correct forcast.. Not once but several times.. ;)

Look over @ S2K, you'll find Him over there i think, trying to grasp, Tropical forcast(s)...

Nah - you regurgitate WU stuff...he explained well ... to each his own...

WU stuff Dakine? explain? Huh, NO, i don't regurgitate anything... I can go into great detail(s),If you prefer, but don't; sorry.. though if your interested, i can... If you notice "Where" i reside, I take great interest in the tropics & forcasting Canes/Tropical Storms......
I've lived through *Alot* of landfalling Canes..thus My interest.
Edit: ok I got it Weather Underground... NO I don't even go there, a bunch of *Weenies*.. ;)

I do miss Bezzle when it comes to these threads. Been a weather nut all my life, and I definitely appreciated his insights- He has a unique way of painting word pictures.

Cross, despite your efforts to coronate yourself after some real or imagined debate with Bezzle, you're not "the tropical guy". Your posts and insights are as welcome as anyone elses, but unless you're a promet, please stop with the "I'm an expert" crap. Bez clearly had an intuitive way of understanding and articulating these systems.

Anyone here can aggregate what they're reading from the various weather sites. Doesn't take any special gift. Hell, Bez started most of the tropical threads.

Alrighty then. New cone. New intensity forecast. New landfall target- Appalachicola, FLA.

This is definitely one storm the NHC will be studying and learning from for quite a few years.

What happened to Bezzle???

I always enjoyed his links to various wx issues.

Jeezus what a washout here. Been pouring down rain sincw yesterday without even a break. It goes from pouring down rain to a really hard rain where you cant see 20 feet ahead then back to the steady downpour.

I'm taking that landfall forecast with about a pound of salt. That storm is barely moving, which makes its path very hard to predict. It's also huge; we're getting rain from it now in NE Florida.



Thankfully, it's not a very intense storm, so it doesn't matter that much where it goes.

-Uwe-

Just talked to one of my sisters in Tampa - 5.5 inches of rain in the last 24 hours. 10.5" in coastal Pasco county - New Port Richey.

And it's nowhere near stopping.

Quote:

This system is totally freakin out the algos.

Maybe interesting then!