Oh boy... that should make things interesting.

Ah, the unofficial-official start of WWIII? (NATO/et al. vs. Russia/et al.)


Just kidding. It won't ever happen in our lifetimes. In fact, major war will never happen again. Lalalala. That's it. Now if I just keep believing, these pesky debt and economy problems will fix themselves and we can all go back to the way things were before when life was so simple.

The financial and geopolitical worlds have the same problem.. far too much unpaid debt for far too long.

Be a pretty strange twist of fate if WW3 starts in the middle east and Israel plays no part.....

From arab source :

Quote:

Alert aircraft carriers from the U.S. Gulf, Iranian threats lock the Strait of Hormuz and the laying of mines at the entrance of the strait with the arrival of four minesweepers to Bahrain

Iran threatening to shut down the strait ahead of full scale sanctions hitting on Sunday.

http://twitter.com/MahirZeynalov

Quote:

Turkish MPs are collecting signatures for an extraordinary meeting in case Parliament authorizes Turkish gov't for Syria intervention.

That means that they have heard from the higher ups that they are seriously thinking about attacking Syria...

Quote:

Apparently US forces in Gulf on forward positions and high alert. Targets in Syria pin pointed for strike. Israel on mobilization too.

And tweets from Saudi Arabia...

Quote:

Tonight our brothers in the Saudi Special Forces and National Guard are on heightened alert. Allah keep them safe and give them strength.

http://twitter.com/MohammedKayani

Quote:

Saudi Forces on full mobilization after Turkish Pres tel call to King Abdulla of imminent strike on Syria. All leave canceled.

Quote:

Jordanian news source reporting Iran carried out secret tests last month on Scud missiles armed with chemical warheads.

Iran have had these for decades... if this report is true, then maybe they are going for chemical weapons MAD?

Quote:

Military alert since 5 a.m. in Saudi Arabia ...There are news saying that Syria strike in two days ...NATO forces are about to move to Turkey

That would mean strike on June 28-29...

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,....

Quote:

Major Hamas operative killed in his Damascus apartment

http://www.todayszaman.com/news-284837-s....

Quote:

Syrian government allows terrorist PKK to raise its flag in Syrian town
Syria, already experiencing tense relations with Turkey after downing a Turkish military jet last week, is turning a blind eye to the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party’s (PKK) raising a Kurdistan flag in a Syrian town, disregarding the disturbance it would cause in Turkey.

The PKK has hoisted the flag in the Syrian town of Ayn-al Arab, close to Mürşitpınar village in Şanlıurfa’s Suruç district. The 15-meter-high flag, raised on a hill, is visible with the naked eye from Turkey.

There is a Syrian flag flying 200 meters away from the Kurdistan flag.

One resident of Mürşitpınar, N.Y., says that it is nothing less insolence towards Turkey for the flag to be flown on the highest hill in the region.

Turkey's reponse :

Quote:

Two of our correspondents are reporting that Turkish army is currently sending huge reinforcements to Syrian border in Hatay.

This might be why Turkey is going for it... remember that Turkey has been bombing the north of Iraq for years now... Remember also that Turkey nearly invaded Syria in 2000 over the PKK... well here we are again.

And it's very silent in Israel... me thinks something big is gonna go down in the next 72 hres...

- Iran attack
- Iran blocking strait
- Syria being attacked

Something really big is staring us in the face.

And don't forget Russia...
http://en.rian.ru/mlitary_news/20120625/....

Quote:

Russian Navy Holds on to Its Syria Base

Russia has no plans to abandon its naval base in Tartus, Syria, Navy chief Vice Adm. Viktor Chirkov said on Monday.

http://en.rian.ru/mlitary_news/20120625/....

Quote:

Russia Reflags Syria Arms Ship

A Russian ship purportedly carrying helicopter gunships to Syria, which was forced to return to port, will now operate under a Russian flag, the ship’s owner, Femco, said on Monday.

Femco said that was necessary “in order to protect its interests, the security of the ship and its crew, all of whom are Russian citizens.”

MSM reporting:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnew....

Quote:

A military convoy left from a base at the port city of Iskenderun and arrived at military compounds near Syrian border, the Dogan news agency reported.

I have VERY good reason to believe the info Vitch posted above - and that's all I can say.

Time to fill up the surburban!

Quote:

Time to fill up the surburban!

Might want to do that pretty quick.

Quote:

I have VERY good reason to believe the info Vitch posted above - and that's all I can say.

So you are full of it...

Dakine, nope. But I hope I'm wrong.

And there goes my ability to post here for a few hours. Thanks, Vitch for posting that info.

The Russians could probably be bought off. I'd wager a guess that a deal could be cut guaranteeing them continued use of Tartus after a potential regime change in exchange for their silence on NATO action. Well, maybe not "silence", they will***** and moan about it publically because they need to demonstrate support for their former ally Assad, but they could probably be negotiated with to avoid any retribution coming from them. And, they'd probably want some additional geopolitical kickers tossed into the mix to sweeten the deal, but I'd think that a deal could be done.

Right after reading this:

Quote:

The Russians could probably be bought off. I'd wager a guess that a deal could be cut guaranteeing them continued use of Tartus after a potential regime change in exchange for their silence on NATO action.

I see this: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-06-27....

Quote:

Russia has endorsed a detailed United Nations road map for a political transition in Syria, a sign that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has lost the support of a key ally, according to three United Nations diplomats.

Yep, it seems the wild card here is Russia and how they react. And if Assad sees a dirtnap coming does he inflict maximum pain with some chemicals?

Quote:

Yep, it seems the wild card here is Russia and how they react. And if Assad sees a dirtnap coming does he inflict maximum pain with some chemicals?

Has any dictator ever really done something like that? I'm trying to think of one. I think Hitler had chemical weapons, but didn't use them even at the very end. Also, Sadaam and Qadaffi I think had them but didn't use (as a last act, I mean). Can anyone think of someone who went out with a bang like that?

Generally it would be better if nothing happens.

Quote:

Has any dictator ever really done something like that? I'm trying to think of one. I think Hitler had chemical weapons, but didn't use them even at the very end. Also, Sadaam and Qadaffi I think had them but didn't use (as a last act, I mean). Can anyone think of someone who went out with a bang like that?

Ultimately, it's not up to the one who dictates, it's up to the one with his finger on the actual trigger. And that makes all the difference.

Jeffrey_thomason: Are you suggesting that Assad is losing control of his loyalist military units?

Got another post, so I'll say I feel fairly safe in adding that, when I see the specific instructions I and everyone on the .mil network received, and it's not accompanied by the words *EXERCISE* *EXERCISE* *EXERCISE*, I generally take note that something pretty significant is happening.

Quote:

Jeffrey_thomason: Are you suggesting that Assad is losing control of his loyalist military units?

When asked to use WMD on their fellow men, a lot of people's loyalties change.

I'm not suggesting no one would ever use WMD - we have ourselves. Just trying to think if the scenario of a desperate dictator on his way out using them indiscriminately has ever actually happened. And if the answer is no, that actually surprises me considering what d-bags they are. I wonder if that's indicative of some desperate false hope to the very end that they can ride out the storm and so they hold back. Really curious if so because you really would think such people would just say '**** it' under those circumstances, but maybe self-preservation is a stronger force even for the world's biggest *******s than doing what they would really like to do..

Edit: good point, Jeffrey. I think we sometimes fail to consider that someone other than the sociopath in charge has to actually carry out those orders.

Assad use WMDs?

I just don't think so. As opposed to Saddam Hussein and Gaddafi, Assad is not a "sociopath".

In fact, I'd wager a guess that he's a pretty well read, reasonable, and cogent man. HIS problem is that he was plucked from optometry school in London due to his "family pedigree" and hand picked to be a "Western-acceptable face" for a hereditary regime lead by the mobster Alawites... who pretty much have been dominating Syrian politics and their economy via mob-style rule for decades.

I don't think Assad, himself, is all that bad a guy. It's the entrenched Alawite establishment who are at risk of losing EVERYTHING, ranging from their very profitable parasitic mob-style rackets, to their own personal security in a state in which they are a religious minority, who are pressuring Assad to lay down the jackboot. It wouldn't surprise me if Assad flees for greener pastures at some point during this crisis, and cuts a deal for his personal security and for the security of his ethnically-British wife... and leaves the dirty work to the native Syrian Alawites who, unlike Assad, have actually spent most of their lives IN Syria and have a direct economic and PERSONAL SECURITY interest in maintaining their influence.

I could see Assad fleeing to, who knows... Iran?.. UK?.. in some sort of a US Embassy rooftop in Vietnam "helicopter me out" scenario. And this would mark not the end, but the BEGINNING of the Syria conflict.

Turkish official confirms troop movements towards the Syrian boarder says Turkey and taking precautionary steps following the downed jet

good analysis bjonnson !