Asimov
If all you're trying to do is predict Chinese blunders, it's OK to look at their belief system in isolation. If you're trying to predict the reactions of others and actual outcomes, it's much more important to look a the reality than the delusions driving China. This is where Ben is a total fail.

If you listen to him, you get a completely one-sided and distorted viewpoint. Frankly, he's not telling me anything I don't already know. But he is mis-informing a lot of people who don't have much knowledge of Asia and it's history. If you listen to him, China is the only thing that matters. Everyone else is irrelevant. That's a good summary of the [bhinese attitude[/b] but bears no resemblance to reality.

Sushi- +1

"Sushi" wrote..

If you listen to him, you get a completely one-sided and distorted viewpoint.

That's right.
I am telling you guys how the Chinese would think or respond to 'X'.

Sushi and Jata you guys simply do not get it. What I am posting is what I see, read, hear and observe. It's not what I believe. It's also not indicative that I am unaware of other points of view. It's not a case where I listen, nod my head in agreement and then mindlessly parrot it.

I am simply listening and repeating it as most Westerners have no knowledge, context or sense of where the Chinese are coming from.

You are unable to disassociate what I post from what I believe, on this topic.

It plays into American attitudes about Communist nations.
Using your own language:
"You present the Chinese propaganda fantasy view of the world really well - like you'd been bombarded with is since birth.".

Exactly. Because that is how the Chinese think, it's what they say, it's what I see and then I repeat it without changes. Totally one-sided and distorted. I am just a messenger but because of the American brainwashing that people like yourself were subjected to, you reflexively adopt an attitude as we see in thread. You get*****ed off that I am posting this, as though it's my job to balance this out in some fashion, as though it is my fault that these thoughts exist.

You want me to balance my posts?

Well that makes no sense, because there is NO BALANCE to give. The Chinese have none wrt these posts of mine. That's what they think, and that's it.

Quote:

That's a good summary of the /Chinese attitude but bears no resemblance to reality.

Right, and that's why I post it.
I am telling you guys how the Chinese would think or respond to 'X'.

Sushi you continue to err and think these posts are my beliefs, or that because I post them I do not know any other side or opinion.

Really, I am fed up trying to explain to you why you are making errant assumptions about my beliefs, and attacking the messenger.

I am telling you things and you don't like them.

Fine.

But don't kill the messenger.

China often talks about their military on TV and is quite frank in discussing how far behind they are militarily and their position vis-a-vis natural resources. And they have a plan which they are following. 1) Is a missile shield - they talk constantly about their missile guys who can dominate the seas out past Japan and the Philippines. 2) Inflation - ramp up the debt and buy everything. 3) Get **** - which is why we are discussing them right now since they have laid claim to the area.

So tell me what the US is going to do. Tell China that they don't have the logistics to fight us? Spank them for taking ****?

Quote:

Sushi you continue to err and think these posts are my beliefs, or that because I post them I do not know any other side or opinion.

Really, I am fed up trying to explain to you why you are making errant assumptions about my beliefs, and attacking the messenger.

I am telling you things and you don't like them.

Like or dislike has nothing to do with it. And don't give me the "just the messenger" BS.

If you were actually just the messenger, you'd tell us what the Chinese think and then compare it to reality. Since you virtually NEVER do that, you're just parroting back propaganda. Your posts would actually have considerable value if you would point out the problems that are created by Chinese mis-perceptions. But that just isn't on your agenda.

Instead you act as if nobody but you understands them. I don't disagree with most of what you post about Chinese ignorance and bigotry. You just fail to point out that it is precisely that and likely to trigger a war as a result. You talk down to people who actually know a lot more about that part of the world and its history than you. THAT is what's offensive.

Just one little reminder on logistics: it's been a long time since our supply lines were last contested (1944, in the Atlantic, basically never in the Pacific after early 1943) so we're way out of practice actually defending them.

^^^
(And I mean defending them against someone with over-the-horizon weapons who can stick around and fight it out afterwards, not someone triggering IEDs from a cell phone.)

Chinas navy will be a threat 10 years from now. Right now they have a really big boat with a flat deck. No practice, no wars under their belt. And as another poster pointed out no experience in logistics.

They are a regional power. They simply can NOT project military power forward at this time.

Get back to me when they have anything close to heavy lift capability on a large scale. Then we'll talk.

If we were not involved with the zionist / oil wars we could pack up and ship a very large can of ****ing whoop-ass deep into chinas territory. Can the same be said for China? Not even close.

Missiles ain't all that.................

Ben, as I've told you before I lived in China for 6 years from January 2004- Dec 2010. For you to say "I don't get it" is just more of your arrogant, pedantic bull**** that you seemed to have mastered. Keep parroting the CCTV and Communist party line and telling everyone you know precisely how every one of 1.3 billion people feel. It just demonstrates to me how little you really know.

And ending every post with "you people need to learn Chinese history" is ****ing bizarre. Just exactly who are you anyways? You may impress people who have never been to China but not me. Just another laowei who thinks they figured it all out in 3 years. They're a dime a dozen in China.

Ben wrote..

Exactly. Because that is how the Chinese think, it's what they say, it's what I see and then I repeat it without changes. Totally one-sided and distorted. I am just a messenger but because of the American brainwashing that people like yourself were subjected to, you reflexively adopt an attitude as we see in thread. You get*****ed off that I am posting this, as though it's my job to balance this out in some fashion, as though it is my fault that these thoughts exist.

The simple historical fact is that most of those who would have disagreed with "the party/historical line" were just murdered. Good way to thin out the opposition to your world point of view. And BTW - the survivors are aware of the murders, and that they could happen again.

I understand that some on this thread rightly praise the American military machine, but as we saw in WWII on the Eastern Front, and at the Chosin Reservoir, if your opponent is willing to take 60/70/80/90 percent casualties, it kind of dilutes the effectiveness of your elite Western fighting force, which crumbles at much lower casualty percentages.

Uppity_peasant... yep.

Well, I'm still*****ing on China. **** em.

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but as we saw in WWII on the Eastern Front

People often forget the fact that the Germans came VERY close to winning on the eastern front...especially in 41.

If it weren't for all the Allied aid to Russia to bolster their defenses, trucks for transport and other goods, the Russians would have had a much more difficult time at the very least.

First off the worst mistake you can make in war is to underestimate your enemy.

Second the last modern world war fought was won with a combination of industrial might and logistics.

Does anyone believe the US can match China's industrial capacity at this point in time? Could we even build the electronics that fuel modern warfare without chips made in Taiwan or China? As to the logistics question is China not at least partly responsible for importing raw materials and exporting finished goods around the world? Is that significantly different from military logistics?

How much war material has China pre-staged around the world right now? What about the US? Who can build cargo ships faster the US or China?

The US is responsible for developing China's industry and I suspect they are quickly reaching the point where they will no longer need us. We have taught them what they need to fight an industrial war. Much like the Germans in WWII our technological superiority will not matter when each of our M1A1 tanks is facing down 25 Chinese tanks that are "good enough".

It was the winter that really drove the nail in the coffin on that little expedition into russia.

I saw a program a while back that compared the uniforms in very cold conditions... the nazi garb simply wasn't suitable. The russian uniform on the other hand... Well, they knew how to deal with REALLY cold weather, and it showed. BIG TIME.

The russians could basically lay out in -30 weather for hours and still be reasonably comfortable. The nazis would freeze to death in the same time.

If memory serves, they were testing in a freezer at -30F and in the nazi "cold weather" uniform, they had to pull the guy out after 30 minutes because he was in danger of losing body parts. In the russian uniform, he was fine for several hours and had no real degradation of performance, mentally or physically.

One thing that sticks out in my mind was the helmet. The nazi helmet had a metal bit down the back to help protect the neck and had minimal insulation in it. In real cold weather it would actually stick to the skin of your neck. NOT warm.

Gloves were another major issue, the russians had really heavy thick mitten-like gloves that had a slit cut in them so you could get a finger out if needed. The nazi's had typical gloves and not only were they not warm enough, they also severely restricted your dexterity even before you got cold.

Anyway... I've rambled on long enough, but there were several other very good points that were made in that show. Wish I knew where I'd seen it or the name of it. It was very enlightening on some aspects of the war that aren't usually mentioned except in passing.

Windellmc: First off, welcome aboard!

While I agree with most of what you said, I have to take issue with this:

Quote:

Much like the Germans in WWII our technological superiority will not matter when each of our M1A1 tanks is facing down 25 Chinese tanks that are "good enough".

That's simply not true. "Good enough" isn't good enough on this. Quantity does have a quality of it's own, but our tanks are so overwhelming against ANYTHING that's not using a similar level of technology that you're basically talking about target practice, not a battle. We can shoot on the move and hit anything we can see. It's not just the accuracy of the gun either, it's the whole platform. Actually, it's not even the platform, even more than that it's the ability to communicate between the tanks. If one tank sees something, they all see it. Look up the IVIS system that's used now. It'll blow your mind. No commanders in the history of warfare have ever had the ability to instantly access and assess so much, so fast.

Good points, Asi. And, you can't forget about this... Russian women actually went to war as well... even if it was digging trenches to stop the advance of German tanks:

No doubt!

The trench network they dug was INCREDIBLE. Every spot that looked weak was actually a trap. In places it was DOZENS of layers deep and stretched for thousands of miles.

I've seen and read quite a bit about it, and it still stuns me that they were able to do that much work, that fast, mainly with hand tools. They moved enough earth to built several great wall's of china, and they did it in a matter of about a year. Simply incredible.

Quote:

People often forget the fact that the Germans came VERY close to winning on the eastern front...especially in 41.

Another thing people forget is that the Red Army in 1941 was appallingly poorly led. Purges had removed virtually all leaders of ability and initiative, the start-line dispositions were idiotic and dispersed (due to directive by Moscow) and Stalin was fundamentally taken by surprise and didn't even believe the invasion was happening with bombs falling. The Nazis were doomed in any case, but against an even reasonably competent Stavka '41 they would have been stopped before Kiev. But the Red Army learned fast, and the Germans noted the fierce and even suicidal resistance even in the first week. Read "Barbarossa" by Alan Clark c.1965 if you have time. Great read and he really takes the starch out of the apologists on the German General Staff who wanted to shift blame for their own mistakes. No disrespect to the GIs or Tommys who fought and died, heroically, but make no mistake - Russia won the war.

Hipho, I've read a lot of Keegan, and he suggests that without the strength of the Russian resistance to the east, the Russian advance back to the west, ending in Berlin, would not have been possible.

Asimov
The single most decisive factor was an incredibly mundane fact that would otherwise be a trivial footnote in history. Russia used an entirely different rail gauge than the rest of Europe. They used 2 meter broad gauge rail rather than standard gauge rail.

But the implications were enormous. The Germans could not use their own rolling stock and locomotives or those captured elsewhere in Europe to supply their troops in the East. Once they crossed into the pre-war Soviet borders, they could only use captured Russian trains and cars. As if that weren't bad enough, they had to unload the standard-gauge trains and reload them on broad-guage at that point as well.

It was a huge bottleneck in their logistics during the entire war in the East. Moreover, it critically delayed resupply in the summer and fall of 1941 - when they could have simply rolled over the Moscow defenses if they could have gotten there. If German trains had been able to roll straight from Berlin to the battlefront, the Kiev Pocket would have been eliminated weeks earlier and Army Group Center would have lunged straight for Moscow per the original plan instead of being used as the northern pincer of a southern operation.

By the time they returned to the Moscow offensive, the defenses had been heavily reinforced, the weather was turning bad and Zhukov's fresh Siberian veterans had arrived. 10 weeks earlier and there would have been no counter-attack on the outskirts of Moscow.

Sushi: Yup. No doubt. The same thing worked for the soviets when they really started moving tanks up too. That large gauge rail allowed them to carry some truly massive tanks... And I'm sure we all know what the russian tanks were like in WW2.

They were... well, built like a tank.

Pardon me if this has already been posted, but I didn't find it. China has it's eyes on Okinawa.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia....

Quote:

In a fiery editorial this month, the Global Times newspaper urged Beijing to consider challenging Japan’s control over its southern prefecture of Okinawa, an island chain with a population of 1.4 million people that bristles with U.S. military bases.

“China should not be afraid of engaging with Japan in a mutual undermining of territorial integrity,” the Communist Party-run paper declared.