Nice looking system. Recon's in the area. Looks like it's jogged NNW just a bit, if so, it'll likely miss the next forecast point. We'll see if recon verifies that.

Picture from a friend who lives on Half Moon Bay, a bit north of Tulum, Mexico - nice shot of one of the outer bands approaching:

Recon just measured 80.7 mph winds. We'll see if that gets confirmed in the next VORTEX message...

86 mph wind just measured. 983mb. Looks like we're going to get an upgrade pretty quick.

VORTEX message - officially measured at 81.7 mph.

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 7th day of the month at 17:16Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 300)
Storm Number & Year: 05L in 2012
Storm Name: Ernesto (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 10
Observation Number: 24
A. Time of Center Fix: 7th day of the month at 17:01:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 18°27'N 85°24'W (18.45N 85.4W)
B. Center Fix Location: 190 miles (305 km) to the E (91°) from Chetumal, Quintana Roo, México.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,288m (4,226ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 71kts (~ 81.7mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the NE (47°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 130° at 83kts (From the SE at ~ 95.5mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the NE (47°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 984mb (29.06 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,523m (4,997ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,521m (4,990ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 19°C (66°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 83kts (~ 95.5mph) in the northeast quadrant at 16:57:00Z

I love half moon bay...been there twice.

Great place, Ulster. Usually stay in Akumal, but did stay at a condo on HMB once. Excellent snorkeling.

Officially Hurricane Ernesto... track has shifted farther north.

ULL backed off into the SW corner of the gulf Texas border with Mexico; it's off the board. Ernesto will impact before it can turn but there is the possibility, if it gets into the bay intact, that it gets spat out northward or even north-northeast!

In short: Do not write this one off yet.

nice high res, pic..
Those interested in this Image and others around the world,,
LINK--> http://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/cgi-b....

Were it not about to make landfall, I bet we'd see some hellacious rapid intensification.

Storm surge overwashing the turtle nests on Half Moon Bay, Akumal, Mexico. Poor turtles. This must be man's fault.

Latest Belize radar images with the eye in clear view as it approaches landfall: