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User Info Non-farm Payrolls Rise 163k v Expected 100k in forum [NotSoBreaking]
Willoughby
Posts: 499
Incept: 2009-05-31
Green
Bubblemania: Darwin, Australia
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U.S. CHANGE IN NONFARM PAYROLLS (JULY) COMES IN AT 163K VS. 100K EXPECTED. PREVIOUS REVISED TO 64K FROM 80K.

U.S. CHANGE IN PRIVATE PAYROLLS (JULY) COMES IN AT 172K VS. 110K EXPECTED. PREVIOUS REVISED TO 73K FROM 84K.

U.S. CHANGE IN MANUFACTURING PAYROLLS (JULY) COMES IN AT 25K VS. 10K EXPECTED. PREVIOUS REVISED TO 10K FROM 11K.

U.S. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE ROSE TO 8.3% IN JULY FROM 8.2% IN JUNE. 8.2% EXPECTED.

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"It's not based on any particular data point... We just wanted to choose a really large number." - US Treasury spokeswoman on the $700 billion bailout figure, Sept '08.

1crzydmnd
Posts: 2377
Incept: 2008-03-26
Gold
Bizarro World
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Revisions, revisions.

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I'm not a racist. The black and white halves of Obama equally disgust me.
Argos
Posts: 6312
Incept: 2008-03-23
Gold
The Green Mountain State
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BLS Release:

http://bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.h....



THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION -- JULY 2012


Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 163,000 in July, and the unemployment rate
was essentially unchanged at 8.3 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported
today. Employment rose in professional and business services, food services and drinking
places, and manufacturing.

Household Survey Data

Both the number of unemployed persons (12.8 million) and the unemployment rate (8.3
percent) were essentially unchanged in July. Both measures have shown little movement
thus far in 2012. (See table A-1.)

Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rate for Hispanics (10.3 percent) edged
down in July, while the rates for adult men (7.7 percent), adult women (7.5 percent),
teenagers (23.8 percent), whites (7.4 percent), and blacks (14.1 percent) showed little
or no change. The jobless rate for Asians was 6.2 percent in July (not seasonally
adjusted), little changed from a year earlier. (See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.)

In July, the number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks and over) was
little changed at 5.2 million. These individuals accounted for 40.7 percent of the
unemployed. (See table A-12.)

Both the civilian labor force participation rate, at 63.7 percent, and the employment-
population ratio, at 58.4 percent, changed little in July. (See table A-1.)

The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as
involuntary part-time workers) was essentially unchanged at 8.2 million in July. These
individuals were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because
they were unable to find a full-time job. (See table A-8.)

In July, 2.5 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force, down from 2.8
million a year earlier. (These data are not seasonally adjusted.) These individuals were
not in the labor force, wanted and were available for work, and had looked for a job
sometime in the prior 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed because they had
not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. (See table A-16.)

Among the marginally attached, there were 852,000 discouraged workers in July, a decline
of 267,000 from a year earlier. (These data are not seasonally adjusted.) Discouraged
workers are persons not currently looking for work because they believe no jobs are
available for them. The remaining 1.7 million persons marginally attached to the labor
force in July had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey for reasons
such as school attendance or family responsibilities.

Establishment Survey Data

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 163,000 in July. Since the beginning of this
year, employment growth has averaged 151,000 per month, about the same as the average
monthly gain of 153,000 in 2011. In July, employment rose in professional and business
services, food services and drinking places, and manufacturing. (See table B-1.)

Employment in professional and business services increased by 49,000 in July. Computer
systems design added 7,000 jobs, and employment in temporary help services continued
to trend up (+14,000).

Within leisure and hospitality, employment in food services and drinking places rose by
29,000 over the month and by 292,000 over the past 12 months.

Manufacturing employment rose in July (+25,000), with nearly all of the increase in durable
goods manufacturing. Within durable goods, the motor vehicles and parts industry had fewer
seasonal layoffs than is typical for July, contributing to a seasonally adjusted employment
increase of 13,000. Employment continued to trend up in fabricated metal products (+5,000).

Employment continued to trend up in health care in July (+12,000), with over-the-month
gains in outpatient care centers (+4,000) and in hospitals (+5,000). Employment also
continued to trend up in wholesale trade.

Utilities employment declined in July (-8,000). The decrease reflects 8,500 utility workers
who were off payrolls due to a labor-management dispute.

Employment in other major industries, including mining and logging, construction, retail
trade, transportation and warehousing, financial activities, and government, showed little
or no change over the month.

The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls was unchanged at
34.5 hours in July. Both the manufacturing workweek, at 40.7 hours, and factory overtime,
at 3.2 hours, were unchanged over the month. The average workweek for production and
nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls was unchanged at 33.7 hours. (See
tables B-2 and B-7.)

In July, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls edged up
by 2 cents to $23.52. Over the year, average hourly earnings rose by 1.7 percent. In July,
average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees increased
by 2 cents to $19.77. (See tables B-3 and B-8.)

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for May was revised from +77,000 to +87,000,
and the change for June was revised from +80,000 to +64,000.

Cashncarry
Posts: 5091
Incept: 2007-07-24
Green
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U3 creeping back up to 8.3% is not the headline the Oval Office wants.

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"There are two places only where socialism will work; in heaven where it is not needed, and in hell where they already have it.”– Winston Churchill
Stonedog
Posts: 2080
Incept: 2008-05-29
Green A True American Patriot!
New Jersey
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U6 (NSA) was 16.3% up from 15.1% last month

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"I would characterize my professional disdain as more of a professional contempt for their [Central Banker, Banker and politician] economic and financial policies, priorities, presumptions and prescriptions." - Lauren Lyster on Capital Account for Friday June 16, 2012

"All the stimulus, the bailouts, the quantit
Zarathustra
Posts: 5953
Incept: 2009-04-29
Silver A True American Patriot!
Funkytown
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Wooooooooooo Hoooooooooooooo! Wait. 8.3%? What?

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"And in knowing that you know nothing, that makes you the smartest of all." - Socrates

Cashncarry
Posts: 5091
Incept: 2007-07-24
Green
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At this rate it's hard to imagine we won't see a negative payroll number by this Fall.

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"There are two places only where socialism will work; in heaven where it is not needed, and in hell where they already have it.”– Winston Churchill
Drench
Posts: 28631
Incept: 2009-11-10
Green
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Quote:
“We really have a fundamental change in the workforce,” Michael Yoshikami, Founder and CEO of Destination Wealth Management told CNBC Asia’s “Squawk Box” on Friday.

“We should have realized that the unemployment rate is simply not going to go back where it was and we should start realizing that there is a new normal and the real unemployment rate in the United States will be 6-7 percent, where the recovery is in full steam, rather than 4 percent.”
http://www.cnbc.com/id/48476500
Argos
Posts: 6312
Incept: 2008-03-23
Gold
The Green Mountain State
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Average Hourly Earnings:

Prior month: +0.3%
Estimate at Econoday: +0.2%
Actual: 0.1%
Dbongo
Posts: 799
Incept: 2007-08-06
Green
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No need for Ben to fire up the QE cannon in September.

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I Heart TZA! Ben Bernanke, WINNING!
Early_retirement
Posts: 3609
Incept: 2007-06-26
Gold
Burlington, Vermont
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Yeah, tell me this wasn't leaked yesterday after draghi disappointed

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"You cannot legislate the poor into prosperity by legislating the wealthy out of prosperity. What one person receives without working for, another person must work for without receiving. The government cannot give to anybody anything that the government does not first take from somebody else."
Floyd
Posts: 120
Incept: 2009-07-23
Green
NC
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^so that means it is priced in already right? :)
Stonedog
Posts: 2080
Incept: 2008-05-29
Green A True American Patriot!
New Jersey
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Seasonal And Birth Death Adjustments Add 429,000 Statistical "Jobs"

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/seasonal-a....

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"I would characterize my professional disdain as more of a professional contempt for their [Central Banker, Banker and politician] economic and financial policies, priorities, presumptions and prescriptions." - Lauren Lyster on Capital Account for Friday June 16, 2012

"All the stimulus, the bailouts, the quantit
Genesis
Posts: 130691
Incept: 2007-06-26
Admin A True American Patriot!
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Yep -- household survey showed an actual DROP.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Mayorquimby
Posts: 13909
Incept: 2008-09-18
Green
The Archaic Past
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ZH: "Full-Time Jobs -197,000; Part-Time Jobs +31,000"

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They who wish to hurt you, work within the law.
- Morrissey

Gold is theft.
Ghopper
Posts: 2305
Incept: 2011-06-11

Staten Island, NY
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So the Seasonal Death/Birth adjustment in July 2011 was +5K and in July 2012 it is +429K?

smiley

edit:sorry, I read the ZH story wrong

Reason: Misread.
Mayorquimby
Posts: 13909
Incept: 2008-09-18
Green
The Archaic Past
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I think the +429K is ytd.

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They who wish to hurt you, work within the law.
- Morrissey

Gold is theft.
Fraudster
Posts: 4173
Incept: 2011-05-10
Silver
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We should get a short and shallow recession out of this IMO. Still plenty the Government can do to prop up the economy at this point.

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"Let China sleep, for when she wakes, she will shake the world." - Napoleon Bonaparte

"Circulation ceases first at the outer edges [Europe and Japan]. It will take a while yet for the decay to reach the heart [America]." - Foundation & Empire by Isaac Asimov
Argos
Posts: 6312
Incept: 2008-03-23
Gold
The Green Mountain State
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The Seasonal Adjustment and the Birth/Death Adjustment is +429K, according to that Zero Hedge entry.

The Birth/Death Adjustment for July 2011 was +5K; the Birth/Death Adjustment for July 2012 is +52K

According to the graph at Zero Hedge, the seasonal adjustment for July 2011 was +369K; the seasonal adjustment for July 2012 is +377K. This 8K adjustment difference is +2.1%--the lowest Y/Y percentage change for the month of July since 2006-2007 (which was UNCH).

So, I imagine that it could be argued that we added 429K through these adjustments only if the seasonal adjustment from July 2012 is excluded.
Dbongo
Posts: 799
Incept: 2007-08-06
Green
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Quote:
Still plenty the Government can do to prop up the economy at this point.


Not to mention the Bernanke too.

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I Heart TZA! Ben Bernanke, WINNING!
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