From FinancialSense.com:

http://www.financialsense.com/financial-....

Quote:

Technician Tom McClellan: Stocks Should Rally Next Two Months and Top in November

Tom McClellan to the program this week. Tom sees the stock market bottoming in late August, then rallying strongly until November, when he expects it to top, no matter who wins the presidency. Tom also sees rising interest rates and a major bear market in bonds in the near future.

I would agree with McCllellan and if the market does bottom in August then just how high are we going? McCllellan gives us 90 days to get there.

From ComstockFunds.com:

http://www.comstockfunds.com/(X(1)S(xxm0....

Quote:

We also doubt that the market has discounted the bad news at a time when the S&P 500 is up 112% over the past 42 months. Just because bad news is well-known, it doesn't mean that it is automatically discounted. Take October 2007 for instance.

At the October 2007 market peak there was also plenty of bad news out there that didn't matter until it did. By October 2007, investors already knew that 1) the housing industry was collapsing; 2) various mortgage lenders such as H&R Block, Countrywide, Impac Mortgage and Accredited Home Lenders had come public with their serious problems; 3) Washington Mutual revealed improper loans totaling $30 billion; 4) large numbers of loans were adjustable-rate, interest-only, not backed by documentation of assets and income and topped with a home equity loan granted at the same time; 5) we had learned how mortgages were sold and packaged, sliced and diced and sold throughout the globe; 6) we learned about an alphabet soup group of securities few had ever heard of before; 7) large numbers of mortgage companies were taking huge write-downs and going out of business; and 8) two big Bear Stearns hedge funds came close to collapse.

Comstock demonstrates that from a point of 'awareness' in 2007 and though we did drift lower for most of 2008 it took a full 12 months for the washout bottom to strike.

Richard Russell on FinancialSense:

http://www.financialsense.com/contributo....

Quote:

...the Transports gave us just a hint of something hopeful. It was a breakout of the declining trendline, as you can see on the chart...

...Bond buyers in a death-grip. Below is the yield on the bellwether 10-year T-note. Investors looking for safety have been piling into US Treasuries, even though it cost them, since they were receiving negative yields. It was one of the biggest bond bubbles in history. But now, it seems that the fun's over. The yield on the bellwether 10-year note is spurting higher as you can see on the daily chart below. As investors flee the notes and bonds, the yields (which are inverse to the price) head higher. The drop in bonds is going to cost investors billions in losses. If this keeps up, the Treasuries could become competitive with equities, something else for the stock market to worry about...

...the new GDOW is fast becoming a favorite of mine. It's a D-J Industrial Average (150 blue chip stocks) for the whole world. GDOW has now rallied above both its 50-day and 200-day MAs, which is a bullish signal...

Genesis mentioned the transports a few days ago and Highrev has been posting GDOW charts in Technical. Personally, I've got GDOW at a place where bullish price action can relax and take a breather before going back up. Here's how I look at the GDOW right now - price is a good bit above a rising trend line that would signal a tremendously bearish head and shoulders break down if it falls below, but there is room to run higher without destroying the potential head and shoulders formation already on the charts. Plenty of room to drift in other words, wandering aimlessly and cyclically.

From John Browne on SafeHaven.com

http://www.safehaven.com/article/26548/d....

Quote:

But the current unpopularity of stocks is understandable. Faced by an absence of positive economic tailwinds, markets have become event driven and progressively divorced from underlying economic realities. Such markets are inherently volatile, creating conditions that favor short-term traders rather than long term investors. This situation is magnified by computerized high frequency trading where the conventional investor is disadvantaged greatly.

With little conviction in an upward trajectory, Wall Street has been funnelling money into Macro hedge funds that look to tap into what are hoped to be more sweeping and predictable economic trends. After many of these macro funds posted better than market returns during the financial crisis of 2008, money began pouring in. According to Hedge Fund Research, Inc, from the end of 2008 through the first quarter of this year, assets in Macro-focused hedge funds surged 66% to $462 billion. Hedge funds are only open to the biggest and most sophisticated investors, and most would therefore assume that these flows represented the "smart money." However in recent years, macro funds have underperformed. According to Hedge Fund Research, in the first six months of 2012, such funds lost 0.5% on average compared with a 9.5% climb by the S&P 500. What can we say about a market where even the "smart money," seeking predictable returns, gets caught on the wrong side of the ledger?...

...The fact that the legendary hedge fund manager, Louis Bacon, felt compelled to return some $2 billion to his investors provided perhaps a dramatic insight into some fundamental market driven changes taking place.

So if you are not confused and confounded yet by this market here's another little tidbit courtesy CISCO's recent dividend hike:

From Barrons: Cisco Dividend Boost Makes Technology Top Dividend-Paying Sector

http://blogs.barrons.com/incomeinvesting....

Quote:

Tech now accounts for 14.22% of all dividends in the S&P 500, edging ahead of the 14.21% paid by the consumer staples sector. S&P DJI says 41 of the 71 information technology S&P 500 stock issues pay a dividend, with the average payer yielding 2.02%.

So nowadays gadgets swing more dividend weight than staples! If anyone told me in 2002 that twelve years from then that Technology stocks would lead the way in Dividends I would have thought them crazy!

The top is a ways off - and it will be new highs (which I've been calling for a while now) - in most of the major indices; except the NDX and Nasdaq are not likely to eclipse their old highs, although it's possible. The Dow and S&P - no problem........

Trending in a broad channel currently plotted between 1350 and 1450.

We will see Karls' S&P 200 within the next x years where x is < ?

What cannot continue will not.

When that will happen only God knows - literally.

I'm 39 and do not expect SS, my state pension or medicare when I'm eligible to retire (age wise).

Quote:

We will see Karls' S&P 200 within the next x years where x is < ?

Yeah, it'll come. But what is S&P 200 adjusted for inflation? That's the real question. 900 will be the new 200.

Inflation is never undone. Read 'The Great Wave'. It's enough to make a deflationist cry like his puppy died.

We'll see.

Quote:

I'm 39 and do not expect SS, my state pension or medicare when I'm eligible to retire (age wise).

Me either - totally agree. OR... We'll get all that ****, but your SS check will buy a single fast-food meal, which will cost like 200 bucks.

My mom used to see a double-feature film for a NICKEL in 1939. It's gone straight up since then. ****.. I haven't seen a meaningful decrease in price in ANYTHING in my entire life, at least in nominal terms. The only thing that makes any sense at all is computers... The computer I pay $2K for today is 100 times better than the one I got for $1K in the eighties.

I wish everything was like computers.

Buy, BUy, BUY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

For IF we don't buy, baby, buy it all crashes down!

"I wish everything was like computers."

Some good jobs that used to pay well now pay little-so it is like computers :/
http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Columns/20....

Quote:

Previously high-paying jobs in manufacturing have gone the way of the Edsel. U.S. factories lost 3 million jobs from 2000 to 2004, jobs that did not return during the boom leading up to the recession, along with another 2.2 million from 2007 to 2010. Those are unlikely to come back, as well. Manufacturing jobs were 20 percent of private-sector payrolls in 1990, 15 percent in 2000, and just over 10 percent in April. Large multinational corporations have cut 2.9 million U.S. jobs over the past decade, while adding 2.4 million workers to their overseas operations.

....and how about this:
http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/stor....

Quote:

About 1.5 million, or 53.6%, of bachelor's degree-holders under the age of 25 last year were jobless or underemployed, the highest share in at least 11 years. In 2000, the share was at a low of 41%, before the dot-com bust erased job gains for college graduates in the telecommunications and IT fields.
Out of the 1.5 million who languished in the job market, about half were underemployed, an increase from the previous year.

there is no high with HFT ''''BS market trash...

Connieg,

That labor chart would be fine with me if the money I was making:

1) Maintained it's purchasing power, and..

2) Productivity improvements brought by automation and improved manufacturing efficiencies made products both better and less expensive in nominal terms.

The entire fiat money scheme foisted on us over the last 100 years has had one single purpose; To create a hamster wheel that makes us proles work harder for less return and enrich those with first access to the newly created capital (bankers).

This system ****ing sucks, and it's because it's been decoupled from 3rd grade mathematics. It drives realists and people who can add and subtract nuts. Poor old Karl can do the math all day and show us how it's all going to blow up and be 100% percent correct on every line of reasoning, but it never happens because the TPTB can just make more money / seashells / blips and make their problems go away while we pay for it (in wage deflation and goods inflation). As long as people keep condoning the game by their participation, we're terminaly ****ed.

S&P 200 will =never= be back. Ever. They've got this **** in the bag... At least until we get hit by a meteor or a plague.

Zara.. Buy, buy, buy?? Yeah, sure.. if that's what you want to do. Seems to be working for those who are. How long have we been waiting for the Minsky moment? Four years running now? **** dude... I've got a life to live. I'm moving on, man.

The 'crash' of 2008 was a gigantic disappointment. It hardly 'corrected' anything, and look at us now! We're within spitting distance of all-time =nominal= highs in the equity markets and you can borrow money for next to nothing! To people on the blue pill, it's like ****ing heaven. They think us red pill people are just a bunch of ****ing pessimist, nihilist trolls. Hell.. Maybe they're RIGHT. I dunno.

The reason it*****es me off is that it violates every principle of honesty and fair play I've ever been taught since I was four years old, and I'm not just going to roll over and become a criminal like the rest of these *******s all around us. I'd rather die an honest pauper than a rich thief. But that's just me. This entire world we live in is so ****ing crooked, it's just breathtaking. I'm astounded by it on a daily basis. I have ZERO power to change it, and I never will. I've given up a lot of my dreams because I know the only way to achieve them is to join in on the cheating and recklessness, and I'm not going to do it. Ever. I'm just going to muddle through until I'm dead.. probably just like the vast majority of the rest of the people on this planet. I wish I were stupid enough to have some kind of grand religion, as that'd give me a lot of comfort, but I don't. Just struggle then death. That's what I've got. It sucks. Sorry for the rant.