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User Info 2012 Issac in forum [RagingEarth]
Landshark
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Here we go...

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 21st day of the month at 19:08Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 307)
Tropical Depression: Number 9 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 09
A. Time of Center Fix: 21st day of the month at 18:58:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 15°20'N 53°20'W (15.3333N 53.3333W)
B. Center Fix Location: 448 miles (722 km) to the ENE (70°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 40kts (~ 46.0mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles) to the ENE (61°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 146° at 44kts (From between the SE and SSE at ~ 50.6mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 21 nautical miles (24 statute miles) to the ENE (60°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1005mb (29.68 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 242m (794ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 25°C (77°F) at a pressure alt. of 246m (807ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 25°C (77°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 1,500 feet
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 0 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 44kts (~ 50.6mph) in the northeast quadrant at 18:51:00Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
PRELIMINARY, DO NOT RETRANSMIT


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Success in life is a matter not so much of talent and opportunity as of concentration and perseverance.

– C. W. Wendte
Landshark
Posts: 11251
Incept: 2008-02-07
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40 mph TS force winds on the last pass. Definitely a TS. Wondering if they'll upgrade soon or wait until the 5 EDT update.

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Success in life is a matter not so much of talent and opportunity as of concentration and perseverance.

– C. W. Wendte
Genesis
Posts: 130705
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Maybe. You need a closed rotary circulation for a TS.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Landshark
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Nice bit of convective blowup there... green is a hot tower just east south of the center of circulation.


----------
Success in life is a matter not so much of talent and opportunity as of concentration and perseverance.

– C. W. Wendte

Genesis
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Yep.... needs to wrap up before it can really get going, but it looks like it's headed that way.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Landshark
Posts: 11251
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Wouldn't surprise me to see the keys in the cone by tonight.

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Success in life is a matter not so much of talent and opportunity as of concentration and perseverance.

– C. W. Wendte
Genesis
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I'm going to wait a couple of days to see how the upper-air pattern plays before making a call on this one -- I can make clean arguments for either this storm going WELL South of where everyone thinks it's going OR coming right up the Florida peninsula, with equal odds on the west or east coast.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Landshark
Posts: 11251
Incept: 2008-02-07
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Only way I think it could continue west is if it stayed at current intensity or decreased in intensity, making it subject to the steering layer.

And, a lot depends on whether or not that trough digs far enough south to weaken the FLA-Bermuda ridge.

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Success in life is a matter not so much of talent and opportunity as of concentration and perseverance.

– C. W. Wendte
Genesis
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It takes a MONSTER storm to ignore the synoptic environment. I don't see that happening until well into the Caribbean, and by then I don't think it matters as the die will be cast.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Landshark
Posts: 11251
Incept: 2008-02-07
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http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves....
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al092012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201208211944
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
ISAAC, AL, L, , , , , 09, 2012, TS,

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Success in life is a matter not so much of talent and opportunity as of concentration and perseverance.

– C. W. Wendte
Landshark
Posts: 11251
Incept: 2008-02-07
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Convergence at the lower levels has really improved over the last seven hours...



But... upper level divergence is still very broad. It's going to take more convection for that to tighten up...


----------
Success in life is a matter not so much of talent and opportunity as of concentration and perseverance.

– C. W. Wendte
Genesis
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Yep-yep. That's part of what I was talking about. Have a look at the GOES IR channels for the entire path from there westward and you'll see the other problems.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Landshark
Posts: 11251
Incept: 2008-02-07
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Yep. We'll see what happens when D-Max kicks in tonight. I think that it might just be the surrounding storms competing with the center for energy during the daytime... just a theory, but that seemed to be the case yesterday.

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Success in life is a matter not so much of talent and opportunity as of concentration and perseverance.

– C. W. Wendte
Landshark
Posts: 11251
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Tropical Storm Issac - new cone:


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Success in life is a matter not so much of talent and opportunity as of concentration and perseverance.

– C. W. Wendte
Landshark
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Position and intensity forecast from NHC... looks like they're thinking Cat 1 when it makes landfall in Cuba. If it just crosses the strait into southern FLA, it may not have enough time over water to regain energy...

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/2100Z 15.4N 53.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 22/0600Z 15.6N 56.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 22/1800Z 15.9N 59.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 23/0600Z 16.3N 63.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 23/1800Z 16.6N 66.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 24/1800Z 17.0N 71.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 25/1800Z 19.5N 75.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 26/1800Z 21.5N 78.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND

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Success in life is a matter not so much of talent and opportunity as of concentration and perseverance.

– C. W. Wendte
Landshark
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12Z Euro, 10 days out - after smacking Cancun and Cozumel, recurves into the GOM, looks aimed at the FLA panhandle...


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Success in life is a matter not so much of talent and opportunity as of concentration and perseverance.

– C. W. Wendte
Genesis
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Yeah, that would suck.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Avianphlu
Posts: 3930
Incept: 2008-12-03
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Ulster NY
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if it tracks a little east...you just might get that surge into the nuke plant and tampa...that would suck hairy ballz
Genesis
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I generally do not wish Hurricanes on anyone.

I will make an exception for the RNC smiley

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Landshark
Posts: 11251
Incept: 2008-02-07
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Lol, Fox is already putting out ape**** headlines. Bet Geraldo's little dick is getting hard...

Quote:
Tropical Storm Isaac poses possible threat to GOP convention in Florida

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Success in life is a matter not so much of talent and opportunity as of concentration and perseverance.

– C. W. Wendte
Avianphlu
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Ulster NY
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Dakine2004
Posts: 9231
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MD.MI.NC.SD.
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8-29
Inline
Thesev
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Louisiana
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Ooo, there are a couple tracks out our way. One right up the pipe.

A bit close to 8/28 (2005) for our tastes here.


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The reason the republic isn't working is that it's being run as a democracy.

It doesn't matter who you are, or who you Think you are, the Math is Going to Win.
Landshark
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I'm sure Karl will love that.

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Success in life is a matter not so much of talent and opportunity as of concentration and perseverance.

– C. W. Wendte
Landshark
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Beginning to wrap and consolidate nicely...


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Success in life is a matter not so much of talent and opportunity as of concentration and perseverance.

– C. W. Wendte
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