Here we go...

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 21st day of the month at 19:08Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 307)
Tropical Depression: Number 9 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 09
A. Time of Center Fix: 21st day of the month at 18:58:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 15°20'N 53°20'W (15.3333N 53.3333W)
B. Center Fix Location: 448 miles (722 km) to the ENE (70°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 40kts (~ 46.0mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles) to the ENE (61°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 146° at 44kts (From between the SE and SSE at ~ 50.6mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 21 nautical miles (24 statute miles) to the ENE (60°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1005mb (29.68 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 242m (794ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 25°C (77°F) at a pressure alt. of 246m (807ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 25°C (77°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 1,500 feet
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 0 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 44kts (~ 50.6mph) in the northeast quadrant at 18:51:00Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
PRELIMINARY, DO NOT RETRANSMIT

40 mph TS force winds on the last pass. Definitely a TS. Wondering if they'll upgrade soon or wait until the 5 EDT update.

Maybe. You need a closed rotary circulation for a TS.

Nice bit of convective blowup there... green is a hot tower just east south of the center of circulation.

Yep.... needs to wrap up before it can really get going, but it looks like it's headed that way.

Wouldn't surprise me to see the keys in the cone by tonight.

I'm going to wait a couple of days to see how the upper-air pattern plays before making a call on this one -- I can make clean arguments for either this storm going WELL South of where everyone thinks it's going OR coming right up the Florida peninsula, with equal odds on the west or east coast.

Only way I think it could continue west is if it stayed at current intensity or decreased in intensity, making it subject to the steering layer.

And, a lot depends on whether or not that trough digs far enough south to weaken the FLA-Bermuda ridge.

It takes a MONSTER storm to ignore the synoptic environment. I don't see that happening until well into the Caribbean, and by then I don't think it matters as the die will be cast.

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves....
BEGIN
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invest_al092012.invest
FSTDA
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040
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201208211944
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
ISAAC, AL, L, , , , , 09, 2012, TS,

Convergence at the lower levels has really improved over the last seven hours...



But... upper level divergence is still very broad. It's going to take more convection for that to tighten up...

Yep-yep. That's part of what I was talking about. Have a look at the GOES IR channels for the entire path from there westward and you'll see the other problems.

Yep. We'll see what happens when D-Max kicks in tonight. I think that it might just be the surrounding storms competing with the center for energy during the daytime... just a theory, but that seemed to be the case yesterday.

Tropical Storm Issac - new cone:

Position and intensity forecast from NHC... looks like they're thinking Cat 1 when it makes landfall in Cuba. If it just crosses the strait into southern FLA, it may not have enough time over water to regain energy...

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/2100Z 15.4N 53.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 22/0600Z 15.6N 56.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 22/1800Z 15.9N 59.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 23/0600Z 16.3N 63.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 23/1800Z 16.6N 66.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 24/1800Z 17.0N 71.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 25/1800Z 19.5N 75.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 26/1800Z 21.5N 78.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND

12Z Euro, 10 days out - after smacking Cancun and Cozumel, recurves into the GOM, looks aimed at the FLA panhandle...

Yeah, that would suck.

if it tracks a little east...you just might get that surge into the nuke plant and tampa...that would suck hairy ballz

I generally do not wish Hurricanes on anyone.

I will make an exception for the RNC

Lol, Fox is already putting out ape**** headlines. Bet Geraldo's little dick is getting hard...

Quote:

Tropical Storm Isaac poses possible threat to GOP convention in Florida

8-29

Ooo, there are a couple tracks out our way. One right up the pipe.

A bit close to 8/28 (2005) for our tastes here.

I'm sure Karl will love that.

Beginning to wrap and consolidate nicely...