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MarketTicker Forums Read Message in Realty
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User Info Commercial Real Estate Bubble? in forum [Realty]
Jack_crabb
Posts: 2406
Incept: 2010-06-25
Gold
Peoples' Republik of Maryland
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Pardon my ignorance, but where is the crash of commercial real estate? I expected this a year or so ago, but it never materialized.

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Molon Labe

Where is Henry Bowman when you need him?
Eaglewwit
Posts: 6054
Incept: 2007-11-30
Green
SoCal
Banned
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Same place it is for RRE. On the banks balance sheets and not going anywhere.
Jack_crabb
Posts: 2406
Incept: 2010-06-25
Gold
Peoples' Republik of Maryland
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But I thought there was supposed to be a major amount of CRE coming up for re-financing. Were the loans essentially rolled over?

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Molon Labe

Where is Henry Bowman when you need him?
Jubber
Posts: 14020
Incept: 2007-07-05
Gold
UK
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Is it time to reshort the REITS, most of them are back to their highs again...Simon Property , Macereich etc anyone have a new list?

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“The problem with socialism is that, sooner or later, you run out of other people’s money.” Thatcher
Mrbill
Posts: 7846
Incept: 2008-10-19
Gold
North Carolina
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All loans will roll forever! ZIRP ZIRP ZIRP
Jubber
Posts: 14020
Incept: 2007-07-05
Gold
UK
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list of all REITS not sure when this was made

http://www.inrealty.com/restocks/linmrt.....

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“The problem with socialism is that, sooner or later, you run out of other people’s money.” Thatcher
Jubber
Posts: 14020
Incept: 2007-07-05
Gold
UK
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Well I see one of my favourite old REIT shorts is on that list, look at the move in 2008, looks very juicy again

inline

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“The problem with socialism is that, sooner or later, you run out of other people’s money.” Thatcher
Genesis
Posts: 130717
Incept: 2007-06-26
Admin A True American Patriot!
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The only thing to watch out for with REITs is that they tend to pay pretty big dividends, and guess who gets to pay those when you short them?

This is likely a big part of their appeal given ZIRP.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?

Pietertvl
Posts: 3590
Incept: 2007-12-05

NFA
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The one thing I've noticed is that the REITS did react this last month to higher yields.

So I'm seeing SRS/DRV right now as just another TBT type play.

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"All the perplexities, confusion and distresses in America arise not from defects in the constitution or confederation, nor from want of honor or virtue, as much from downright ignorance of the nature of coin, credit, and circulation." ~ John Adams
Jubber
Posts: 14020
Incept: 2007-07-05
Gold
UK
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Alexanders off over 300 points today however it has a 600 point spread for a spreadbet, ... I am short healthcare reit which has an insane PE and that is down over 3% today

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“The problem with socialism is that, sooner or later, you run out of other people’s money.” Thatcher

Briar
Posts: 5377
Incept: 2008-02-07
Gold
Palm Springs, CA
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I've noticed quite a few long-dormant or half-built projects out here in the Inland Empire suddenly coming to life again.
And a few out in Palm Springs that the original developer sold for a lost and a new developer has come in and restarted the projects.
Things are getting sold at big discounts to knew developers who now can actually make some money because they got good deals?

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Religion is what keeps the poor from murdering the rich.
Napoleon
Laswyguy
Posts: 8326
Incept: 2007-07-25
Green
Orange County, CA
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Say you can borrow 10 years at 4.0% and 70% LTV and the property throws off a 7% cash on cash yield... thats a pretty healthy return.

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positive alpha - bitches!
Sunriser1
Posts: 3115
Incept: 2007-10-30
Green A True American Patriot!
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Commercial/industrial is a Fnnn disaster!!! I work part time for a venture capital/equity lender.

The only reason there is any activity is the property taxes are KILLING them! You have to cut your losses and try to finish the project before the 18% per year in penalties and interest kill you.

On top of that permits and tentative maps are expiring.

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People call me depressing, I tell them I'm just well informed.
Jack_crabb
Posts: 2406
Incept: 2010-06-25
Gold
Peoples' Republik of Maryland
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That doesn't surprise me, Sunriser1. I'm just a bit farther down that food chain - a commercial building subcontractor. Some chains are building here out east, but pay from the owners is getting ridiculously slow.

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Molon Labe

Where is Henry Bowman when you need him?
Jubber
Posts: 14020
Incept: 2007-07-05
Gold
UK
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Alexanders off another 200 points today

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“The problem with socialism is that, sooner or later, you run out of other people’s money.” Thatcher
Ramthebulls
Posts: 10858
Incept: 2007-09-24
Gold A True American Patriot!
Queens, NY
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REITs have turned into another interest rate trade. Simon gets murdered the moment real interest rates rise. That could be awhile though...

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Umbrage is like love. No matter how much someone takes, there's always more for you to give.
Sunriser1
Posts: 3115
Incept: 2007-10-30
Green A True American Patriot!
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My company is extending or just sitting on the non performing loans. No reason to waste money on foreclosure fees at this time.

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People call me depressing, I tell them I'm just well informed.
Laswyguy
Posts: 8326
Incept: 2007-07-25
Green
Orange County, CA
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just sold a property in Norcal.. industrial building 7.5 million in my portfolio 5.5% CAP to a reit

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positive alpha - bitches!
Laswyguy
Posts: 8326
Incept: 2007-07-25
Green
Orange County, CA
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update to the sale I did.. buyer financed the deal at L+200 floating...recourse.. basically a 2% loan..

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positive alpha - bitches!
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