Commercial Real Estate Bubble? [Realty]

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Jack_crabb Posts: 2406 Incept: 2010-06-25 Peoples' Republik of Maryland	Pardon my ignorance, but where is the crash of commercial real estate? I expected this a year or so ago, but it never materialized. ---------- Molon Labe Where is Henry Bowman when you need him? 2012-08-21 13:18:44 Permalink
Eaglewwit Posts: 6054 Incept: 2007-11-30 SoCal Banned	Same place it is for RRE. On the banks balance sheets and not going anywhere. 2012-08-21 15:36:13 Permalink
Jack_crabb Posts: 2406 Incept: 2010-06-25 Peoples' Republik of Maryland	But I thought there was supposed to be a major amount of CRE coming up for re-financing. Were the loans essentially rolled over? ---------- Molon Labe Where is Henry Bowman when you need him? 2012-08-21 15:38:58 Permalink
Jubber Posts: 14020 Incept: 2007-07-05 UK	Is it time to reshort the REITS, most of them are back to their highs again...Simon Property , Macereich etc anyone have a new list? ---------- “The problem with socialism is that, sooner or later, you run out of other people’s money.” Thatcher 2012-08-21 15:39:55 Permalink
Mrbill Posts: 7846 Incept: 2008-10-19 North Carolina	All loans will roll forever! ZIRP ZIRP ZIRP 2012-08-21 16:32:56 Permalink
Jubber Posts: 14020 Incept: 2007-07-05 UK	list of all REITS not sure when this was made http://www.inrealty.com/restocks/linmrt..... ---------- “The problem with socialism is that, sooner or later, you run out of other people’s money.” Thatcher 2012-08-21 16:35:51 Permalink
Jubber Posts: 14020 Incept: 2007-07-05 UK	Well I see one of my favourite old REIT shorts is on that list, look at the move in 2008, looks very juicy again ---------- “The problem with socialism is that, sooner or later, you run out of other people’s money.” Thatcher 2012-08-21 16:39:32 Permalink
Genesis Posts: 130717 Incept: 2007-06-26	The only thing to watch out for with REITs is that they tend to pay pretty big dividends, and guess who gets to pay those when you short them? This is likely a big part of their appeal given ZIRP. ---------- I don't care* if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me* Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. *Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.* *What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?* Last modified: 2012-08-21 16:43:38 by genesis 2012-08-21 16:43:19 Permalink
Pietertvl Posts: 3590 Incept: 2007-12-05 NFA	The one thing I've noticed is that the REITS did react this last month to higher yields. So I'm seeing SRS/DRV right now as just another TBT type play. ---------- "All the perplexities, confusion and distresses in America arise not from defects in the constitution or confederation, nor from want of honor or virtue, as much from downright ignorance of the nature of coin, credit, and circulation." ~ John Adams 2012-08-21 16:44:45 Permalink
Jubber Posts: 14020 Incept: 2007-07-05 UK	Alexanders off over 300 points today however it has a 600 point spread for a spreadbet, ... I am short healthcare reit which has an insane PE and that is down over 3% today ---------- “The problem with socialism is that, sooner or later, you run out of other people’s money.” Thatcher Last modified: 2012-08-22 11:07:09 by jubber 2012-08-22 11:02:05 Permalink
Briar Posts: 5377 Incept: 2008-02-07 Palm Springs, CA	I've noticed quite a few long-dormant or half-built projects out here in the Inland Empire suddenly coming to life again. And a few out in Palm Springs that the original developer sold for a lost and a new developer has come in and restarted the projects. Things are getting sold at big discounts to knew developers who now can actually make some money because they got good deals? ---------- Religion is what keeps the poor from murdering the rich. Napoleon 2012-08-22 11:16:41 Permalink
Laswyguy Posts: 8326 Incept: 2007-07-25 Orange County, CA	Say you can borrow 10 years at 4.0% and 70% LTV and the property throws off a 7% cash on cash yield... thats a pretty healthy return. ---------- positive alpha - bitches! 2012-08-22 18:48:00 Permalink
Sunriser1 Posts: 3115 Incept: 2007-10-30	Commercial/industrial is a Fnnn disaster!!! I work part time for a venture capital/equity lender. The only reason there is any activity is the property taxes are KILLING them! You have to cut your losses and try to finish the project before the 18% per year in penalties and interest kill you. On top of that permits and tentative maps are expiring. ---------- People call me depressing, I tell them I'm just well informed. 2012-08-22 18:53:13 Permalink
Jack_crabb Posts: 2406 Incept: 2010-06-25 Peoples' Republik of Maryland	That doesn't surprise me, Sunriser1. I'm just a bit farther down that food chain - a commercial building subcontractor. Some chains are building here out east, but pay from the owners is getting ridiculously slow. ---------- Molon Labe Where is Henry Bowman when you need him? 2012-08-22 19:02:26 Permalink
Jubber Posts: 14020 Incept: 2007-07-05 UK	Alexanders off another 200 points today ---------- “The problem with socialism is that, sooner or later, you run out of other people’s money.” Thatcher 2012-08-23 15:14:19 Permalink
Ramthebulls Posts: 10858 Incept: 2007-09-24 Queens, NY	REITs have turned into another interest rate trade. Simon gets murdered the moment real interest rates rise. That could be awhile though... ---------- Umbrage is like love. No matter how much someone takes, there's always more for you to give. 2012-08-23 15:17:13 Permalink
Sunriser1 Posts: 3115 Incept: 2007-10-30	My company is extending or just sitting on the non performing loans. No reason to waste money on foreclosure fees at this time. ---------- People call me depressing, I tell them I'm just well informed. 2012-08-24 19:08:27 Permalink
Laswyguy Posts: 8326 Incept: 2007-07-25 Orange County, CA	just sold a property in Norcal.. industrial building 7.5 million in my portfolio 5.5% CAP to a reit ---------- positive alpha - bitches! 2012-08-30 21:02:39 Permalink
Laswyguy Posts: 8326 Incept: 2007-07-25 Orange County, CA	update to the sale I did.. buyer financed the deal at L+200 floating...recourse.. basically a 2% loan.. ---------- positive alpha - bitches! 2012-09-13 01:22:31 Permalink


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