I've been keeping an eye on housing for several years now & unless something major happens, it looks like the bottom was around Jan-Mar of this year. Prices seem to be up 15-20% over Spring prices. I've especially noticed it the last month. Kind of surprising, as I figured prices would fall further in late summer after the busy buying season was over.

I should qualify this by saying that higher end properties are still falling or stabilizing. Its the 1000-2000 sq foot houses that are rising. Houses that would go for $130-150k just a few months ago, are going for $170-200k now.

It would be interesting to find out how many properties, at which price levels are selling, currently and historically. I guess you have to be a realtor to get that info.

I've also noticed that for the last several years, the zillow estimates have been pretty close to what the property actually sold for. Now zillow estimates are usually substantially below the asking prices.

I'm wondering if sellers that have been holding on for the last few years are throwing in the towels & listing the houses for (imho) unreasonable amounts?

What are you all seeing in your neck of the woods?

In the last week or two, the realtors have done end-of-season price cuts. I'm in East Texas. Almost nothing except new construction or houses on acreage listed at greater than $100/sq ft.

Prices are high in my area, about 20 miles West of Orlando (commuter town).

Inventory is very low. Nothing on the market now. Some REOs are getting multiple offers in hours/ days at most. Almost all sales are either short sales or REOs.

The Sunday newspaper has a sampling of properties that recently sold, along with pics and asking/ selling price. I see many where the sold price is higher than the list price.

I've been in a few REOs lately and they are in bad shape. All 3 had major roof leaks and one needed an entire new roof. You can bet that these have been empty in the FL heat/ humidity for at least 2 years once you get to bid on them. Ick.

Real estate prices are high here, but renting is even higher. ($1,100 to $1,400 for a single family home; higher closer to Orlando and in the better school zones).

This entire thing is so riggedd. Interest rates were sky high in the 80's, and then came down. This allowed prices to RISE. Now we have record low rates, so from here, prices will be falling again.

I agree with Karl's take on the whole thing (being mobile is important for job purposes), and my brother just moved from Jacksonville FL to Miami FL for a job. (he and his wife are renting again in Miami for now)

However, rents are high all over and if you have kids, you can't live like a gypsy forever. Moving is expensive and it's difficult to secure a job long-distance. At some point, you have to pick a place and stay there. I think the key is finding a house that is as cheap as you can get, while still being in a safe area with decent schools.

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rents are high all over

Landlords pay the highest property tax rates in the state.

Mo, elaborate?

Erica, that is another thing. I'm looking at pics of most of these houses & imho, I'd need about $30k just to bring them up to speed. I'm not going to plunk down $200k for a house that I have to spend $30k updating & reroofing.

We were looking for a property for about $70-$80k to buy cash & fix up. But the out of work builders snatch those up the instant they hit the market...leaving behind stuff we wouldn't touch.

Now, if you are in the high end market, you can get a deal. I've seen houses sold 5-6 years ago for almost $700k, going for $400-$450k now. But who wants to lock into a mortgage like that in this economy?

Rents aren't so bad here. The houses I'm looking at renting are $1200-$1400. Still less than my current mortgage.

I agree about low end to middle. High end still going lower.

I looked at a FSBO 1200+ sq ft house today for an investment. It is a 3-bed/1-BR frame house with siding on pier and beam foundation and window unit air conditioners. Built in 1950. Nothing special architecturally, but straight and solid. Okay neighborhood. It is sparkling clean. Title is clear. Same owner since 1989. She is having health problems so has bought another house with her daughter and needs to sell this one. Has agreed to let me get a termite inspection. If that is okay, it is full speed ahead. Probably close next week (post-Isaac). I'm paying her asking price: $45,000.

God is good to me.

Wakeupcall, property taxes are determined by WHEN you filed for homestead exemption in Florida. The elderly are paying peanuts if they bought in the 70's or '80's.

Landlords don't get a homestead exemption. They pay the highest rates for their valuation every year. It's passed on to renters.

A home could have an elderly person living in it who bought in the 60's one year, paying $500/yr in property taxes. If the same home is sold the following year, the taxes could be 2, 5 or 10 times that amount depending on the valuation.

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Wakeupcall, property taxes are determined by WHEN you filed for homestead exemption in Florida. The elderly are paying peanuts if they bought in the 70's or '80's.

Uh, no. The escalation is still 3% compounded annually. "Save our homes" does not freeze assessments, it just slows the rate of growth.

It does help and does matter, but it doesn't stop the upward march. It matters a LOT in times of insane upward price movements but in times of DOWNWARD movements it gets you nothing since you're still "behind" market prices -- the 3% march continues.

The elderly are still paying peanuts. For that matter anyone who bought before about 1990 is paying peanuts: about a third what new buyers are paying. It's another form of cost shifting.

No it's not.

Why should someone who bought earlier pay escalating amounts when they did not buy into that crap? They should not.

That someone participates in a speculative bubble and all of its costs should not force those who were not a part of it to bear the expense.

The fact is that without the $50k homestead exemption, you pay through the nose as a non-homestead owner. $3,000 in taxes for a home that is listed for $150k.

We have county taxes, city taxes, hospital tax (what a racket), water managment tax, school tax. In many cases, what you pay for city + county is more than you pay for the school tax portion around here.

If I had my way, I would move back to Northeast GA. Homes there are as low as $85,000 for a nice place with some actual yard space to enjoy. (and basement!) Low taxes, lower homeowner's insurance than FL, and no HOA. HOAs here range from $400 a year to over $92 a month. Who would want to lock into that? It's really tough to find a non-HOA property around these parts. Much easier in GA.

I have to give 2 months notice to vacate this rental house by this Friday and we have no idea what we are going to do. I think I'll start by asking the landlord if we can go month to month.

I drove through a neighborhood here this AM and saw many examples of neglect/ rot on the homes. Big areas of rot on the siding/ roof line, etc. IMO, the housing stock is falling to pieces. People flat out don't have the money to keep things up or they are just lazy.

Here is an example of what I'm talking about (and I've run across a dozen similar pricing trends in the last couple of months). Look at the price history:

Listed for $138k back in April 2011. Price kept dropping til it bottomed at $94,043 in November 2011. Taken off the market & then relisted on 8-1 for $149,800k (an increase of about $55k)!

http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/5177-O....

What are the signs of a bubble?

1. Houses selling in short periods of time.

2. Multiple offers, often above asking.
3. Loans are easy to get. (Still easy guidelines, you just have to do more paperwork)

4. Everybody and their brother is talking about real estate and flipping. They all think it is a good time to buy.

5. There are multiple "Flip This" type television shows.

If the answer is yes to 4 or more of those questions than you might be in a bubble.

Eagle, I don't thinks it's a bubble. The prices are going up, but the houses arent moving. I don't know if it's the sellers or the agents that delusional?

To my knowledge, at least in my area, the only houses getting multiple bids is the cheap fixer uppers that the out of work contractors are bidding up (against other contractors, small investors and wanna be home owners trying to get a good deal). Even then it's not much of a bidding war.

Ask yourself this. What is the maximum amount that the FHA or FNM/FRE will loan for your area. Then ask yourself how many people will put more thought into buying a home than, the mortgage broker said I can afford it. That is where we are. Most people buying homes in metro area are a house poor. They are one major problem (bad roof, medical bills, etc) away from foreclosure.

Over in SF prices are going bananas. The market trampolined off the bottom here in between January and March. Go to redfin and check out San Mateo County price trends to see what I mean. Inventory is way down. Also, because of all the dot.com bubble 2 funny money flying around they are selling condos on the third floor with no view in Palo Alto for 1 million bucks!

Palo Alto has always been ****ing nuts.

American do love them some bubbles.

There's probably a lot of people like me who take a look at the house rental market vs a monthly payment and go, eh, why not? I can get a decent house for 400 less a month than the equivalent rental.

the appraisal on the house that we are closing on said that there is a 1.1 month supply of houses on the market

ONE MONTH!!!

Prices have been pretty flat here..no upward signs or downward in the 100-250k range.

We are supposedly at a 3 month supply here. Another REO just came on the market today for $180,000. The exact same home 3 doors down, with POOL, is $135k for a short sale.

The only way to describe pricing here (and the games that banks are playing with REOs) is CRAZY. REOs are lingering for weeks, then they call for "highest and best", then they sit on everything for awhile, and then they relist all over again! I'm seeing the same properties hitting my in-box over and over again with "status change" to new listing.

Our former home sold within weeks back in October 2011, but now there are three homes in the neighborhood that aren't selling (and seem to be priced right). The area has "good" schools and is supposedly desireable.

We looked at another REO listed for $99k last week and the realtor said it had a bid of $95k. The place was without a doubt the worst I have ever seen inside, and I've probably seen over 60 REO properties over the last 6 years. Trashed, illegal additions(?), terrible layout, mystery doors with padlocks, etc. A place like that has a bid within hours/ days, almost at asking. The other REO with the mold and leaking roof went under contract within days as well.

There is nowhere for folks to park their money. Plenty of cash buyers out there (even above $100k mark) + foreigners around here = buying frenzy. 5 neighborhoods with active building now within 15 minutes of here as well. Crazy!

Here's another example of a house going up in price w/o anything to back it up (except hopium).

Sold for $810 in 2006
Listed for $899 in 2009

Dropped in price all the way down to $598 & finally removed from market in June 2012.

Relisted this month at $637.5k

Why???

http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/3301-C....

"Why???"

From the zillow link:

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LOTS OF FRESH, NEW UPGRADES, GRANITE COUNTERS, HVAC, POOL, HARDWOOD FLRS & PLUMBING. NEW DECK ON MASTER BEDROOM