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Tickerguy
Posts: 167307
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
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Correct although I'm not buying that NH has suppression. It would be extraordinarily unlikely for them to be an outlier that far to the left side of the curve on demographics. Ditto for WV. I ain't buying it without quite a bit more time going by; the math just doesn't add up.

But the upward deviation within a reasonable boundary has a demographic correlation and thus far I've been unable to falsify the hypothesis. That's what I'm working at present.

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If you will not force justice to be done by any means necessary when over 100,000 are murdered by political hacks from both parties do not complain or expect my help when you or someone you love dies at their hand. -- Me
Elkad
Posts: 1362
Incept: 2009-09-04

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Yeah, I think WV just hasn't had it...

Better distancing or something.
One county (Grant) is at 1% reported (so maybe 10% actually?)

My county (Mercer) is at 0.3%

Summers county is at 0.05%
(NYT data)

Lab doing a lot of the testing in WV is a client of mine, and he was setting up an antibody machine a few weeks ago. Haven't talked to him since to see how that is going.

Incidentally, he's making a mint on gov funded testing. He's got like 8 employees (all on unlimited overtime currently), and he's run tens of thousands of tests at over $100 each.

Uwe
Posts: 8843
Incept: 2009-01-03
A True American Patriot!
USA
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Quote:
Yeah, I think WV just hasn't had it...

Makes sense in light of the fact that WV one of the last states not to have any cases back in the spring.

Plus it's quite rural, with a total population of less than two million, 93% white, and has no large cities at all. Heck, the largest city in the state, Charleston, has under 50,000 people.

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"Corona Virus will come and go, but government will NEVER forget how easy it was to take control of everyone's life; to control every sporting event, classroom, restaurant table, church pew, and even whether you are allowed to leave your house.
Tickerguy
Posts: 167307
Incept: 2007-06-26
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Yep. But like all places, and all bugs, it will get in there.

The other thing to keep in mind is that this blows up the "oh it's trivially easy for non-symptomatic people to give this gift." No, it's not. Or it would have gotten into Charleston and ripped through it by now. Which it didn't.

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If you will not force justice to be done by any means necessary when over 100,000 are murdered by political hacks from both parties do not complain or expect my help when you or someone you love dies at their hand. -- Me
Elkad
Posts: 1362
Incept: 2009-09-04

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WV is kicking off right now.

Just this week, several nursing homes in my county and the neighboring ones have outbreaks.

Called in the NG to assist, and you can bet they are all going home at night and spreading it in their own households.

Plus the spread by moonlighting nursing home staff.

WV has terrible PPE compliance (maybe 20%, even counting the "mask on chin" people), so it's damn sure not that that was protecting us.
Slightly higher in a few areas, like South Pittsburgh (Wheeling/Morgantown).

Mannfm11
Posts: 6555
Incept: 2009-02-28

DFW, Tx
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The 4 major cities in Texas are getting close. It might not be easy to figure this out, because of elevated testing, so do we have a 10X or a 9X or an 8X total against positive tests? Dallas county is right at 2%. Harris is getting close, needing about 92,000. They have 83,000. It is the North Dallas suburbs, where I live that are lagging.

After having very few cases, West Texas exploded in the last month. I suspect it came across the border. There has been a lot of death in the South Valley and Harris county, more than doubling the death count in the state.
Complications have kept me in town, but it appears to be a good time to be out of Collin County. Collin has 7268 reported cases with 1 million people. We need nearly a triple to get to herd. Denton County has 7519 with 865K population. A sizable amount of the deficit to 2% of state positives lie in these 2 counties.

https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsd....

There is an oddity in Texas. Midland/Odessa are in Midland and Ector counties respectively. Ector shows zero active cases and has for several days. Midland shows 1349. Both are near the 1.5% positive levels. I wonder, if Ector County stopped testing and is passing out HCQ or some treatment?

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The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.---John Kenneth Galbraith

Tickerguy
Posts: 167307
Incept: 2007-06-26
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Georgia is utterly fascinating. It is following the same pattern as LA; that is, rolling late. You can see it going now, but it was later than expected at first blush.

Right up until you look at the demographics and see that both GA and LA have a nearly-identical racial make-up.

Wow.

Everyone else on the list up above in the "approaching" category has, with near-certainty, rolled over. The pattern is quite-interesting, and that it's validating time and time again is quite amusing as well.

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If you will not force justice to be done by any means necessary when over 100,000 are murdered by political hacks from both parties do not complain or expect my help when you or someone you love dies at their hand. -- Me
Hapablap21
Posts: 797
Incept: 2007-08-21

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This occurred to me yesterday, at least regarding Louisiana: they've tested a LOT. 1.5m tests in a state of 4.5 million people.

If an area has a really high test rate, then it's reasonable to think that the multiplier from measured cases to likely population cases goes down.

So what looks like "rolled late" might just be "tested a lot", at least in louisianas case.

I haven't looked at this elsewhere, so idk whether it holds up, but maybe an interesting alternative hypothesis.
Tickerguy
Posts: 167307
Incept: 2007-06-26
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It's too consistent between counties in a single state which I don't think would play on that basis. Such as here in TN where I can get really good data on a daily basis and analyze it county-by-county.

It's remarkable really; I did not expect to find that sort of demographic correlation, but it's there. Now correlation doesn't mean causation, but it damn well should make your eyebrows go up.

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If you will not force justice to be done by any means necessary when over 100,000 are murdered by political hacks from both parties do not complain or expect my help when you or someone you love dies at their hand. -- Me
Asimov
Posts: 118889
Incept: 2007-08-26

East Tennessee
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Karl: You're probably aware of this, but article about washington county having so many cases. They ask "why?" in the title, but never actually give any substantial reasons.

https://www.wjhl.com/local-coronavirus-c....

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It's justifiably immoral to deal morally with an immoral entity.

Festina lente.
Tickerguy
Posts: 167307
Incept: 2007-06-26
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Why is Washington County unusual?

Here's the chart.... I don't see anything unusual here. In fact, it looks like Blount.

Take a guess why I don't think this is unusual, and where the county is.....

Seriously, given where that is, if you know how to get ahold of any of the idiots at that News Channel I'd be happy to educate them. There's utterly unusual about that pattern -- at all.
Inline

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If you will not force justice to be done by any means necessary when over 100,000 are murdered by political hacks from both parties do not complain or expect my help when you or someone you love dies at their hand. -- Me

Asimov
Posts: 118889
Incept: 2007-08-26

East Tennessee
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I imagine they wouldn't be interested even if I could.

Mass hysteria. I'm starting to understand that concept now. I always thought it was silly before.

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It's justifiably immoral to deal morally with an immoral entity.

Festina lente.
Tickerguy
Posts: 167307
Incept: 2007-06-26
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Yeah they're just flat-out crazy thinking there's something odd there. The county is not to suppression rates yet. They're getting SOME suppression but not enough yet, so they'll fritter around here for a bit. That's not a particularly small county population-wise. It's not "big", but it's larger than Sevier.

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If you will not force justice to be done by any means necessary when over 100,000 are murdered by political hacks from both parties do not complain or expect my help when you or someone you love dies at their hand. -- Me
Mannfm11
Posts: 6555
Incept: 2009-02-28

DFW, Tx
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Dallas County has now tested 20% of it's population, which is why they have 2.5% of their population positive. Collin County, on the other hand, has tested about 13% of the population, giving a little over 1%. Of course, we have no way of knowing how many people have been tested more than once, as there are different reasons to test.

The number of tests have been going up and down here. With it, the positive rate in an opposite direction. When testing less, the positive rate doubled. More testing plunged the rate to a new near-term low, followed by a rally, with less testing. It appears they are either tracking the new cases, with massive testing or something else is going on. The percentage tells me, if this is contact tracing, they aren't finding much.

There is something that occurs to me, that the virus helps kill the most susceptible early. The Texas daily death rate has declined, while the active cases have remained fairly steady. Active cases in Collin County have increased about 500% in the past couple of weeks, but the number of positives for the county are just over 1%. I think your model is fairly reasonable Karl. More testing finds more of the 9 out of 10 previously undetected. A study of the progression of positives and deaths in Dallas and Harris Counties would be interesting, as Harris went from just over 600 to over 1800, while Dallas went from around 600 to a present 868. Both had a rough double of cases. I suspect Dallas has a worse early wave with DFW.

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The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.---John Kenneth Galbraith
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