Fauci refuses to do a controlled study on masks ...

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/....

Quote:

Dr. Anthony Fauci said Tuesday he opposes conducting a controlled study on the effectiveness of masks to prevent the spread of the coronavirus. Suggested he would never ask an individual to participate in a study that would involve not wearing a mask.

Yeah, but he'd have no problem forcing an unproven vaccine on everyone.

Today's data.

And the Mayor extended the order because, get this, HE SAYS THE STATE CAN'T TELL HIM YET WHETHER THE MASK ORDER WORKED.

So he's either too inbred or too stupid to use Excel himself. Never mind the neighboring counties.

Knox has a mask order, and is now seeing a ~5% daily case growth rate (!!)
Loudon and Blount (both near here and adjacent to Knox, as is Sevier) DO NOT have mask orders and are seeing LOWER growth rates.

NONE, except here, are nearing suppression yet. WE ARE; we're at 1.7% as of today, and it APPEARS that EXACTLY on schedule it is starting to roll over.

Twitter thread on this: https://twitter.com/tickerguy/status/129....

They. Don't. Care.

It's taken me so long to really understand that.

We. Are. ****ed.

KD wrote..

NONE, except here, are nearing suppression yet. WE ARE

I'm confused. If mask mandates get a place closer to suppression sooner, and they do that without overwhelming the hospitals, then isn't that A Good Thing?

Uh, well, I don't know about that.

The problem with mandates is that they skew who gets it, and most of the time the skew is very negative in terms of outcome.

SEIR models (basically all epidemiological models) make one basic assumption -- transmission happens due to random circumstance in who you contact and thus can transmit to while infective.

Violate that premise and very bad, indeed ugly, things happen.

Witness NY. They violated it in a big way by concentrating a health care vector. As a result they have a hideous CFR because the "random" wasn't, and the people who got exposed were most-capable of being killed.

Mask mandates have a very high probability of doing the same sort of thing. It might not here because of the large tourist presence, but it certainly won't skew it more-favorably.

All bad-side risk, no good-side risk.

Indeed there is evidence we had suppression already before the mandate, -- we were Sweden, basically.

Now we've doubled that because we forced the virus into people who it could get sick.

Oops.

Texas went crazy with masks. Only a large number of cases curved it. People, in large numbers have had them on since April. 20% maybe without them. I see morons driving with them.

I'll bet that the mask-mania has basically doubled the suppression rate in the population. How else do you explain Sweden?

From 7/23 ...

https://www.newsweek.com/indiana-face-ma....

Quote:

Indiana Makes Not Wearing Mask a Class B Misdemeanor, Punishable by 6 Months in Jail

GFB: Yup. But the state AG and at least one sheriff have said that it's an unconstitutional, unenforceable order (no ****?!?). Of course, as you can imagine, the screamers on Faceblargh and NextDuuuur still gibber about the "necessity" of wearing masks and ad-hominem the AG et al.

More stupid.....

Note that we appear to have reached suppression.

As has Davidson County (Nashville), although every screaming Karen says nobody's obeying their mask order. Well, if nobody's obeying it then they definitely don't work because cases have peaked there anyway.

And Knox, which has a mask order and.... well..... I wouldn't take the bet. They're up there, but I bet they're not done.

Knox and Davidson...

Goat rodeo, inbred "I got two teeth left" update....

Was trying to figure the data for Columbus, Ohio. I think too much noise to get clear picture though. Columbus mandatory mask ordinance went into effect July 3rd. That means effects should start being seen July 8th right?

I looked for Columbus specific numbers, but best I could do was find Franklin County numbers (although Columbus is a big part of that at least). The site I found does not back date changes though (I know this because early on there was a day of -3 cases). https://www.cleveland.com/coronavirus/20.... For the rest of the county part, Franklin County was ordered from the state to start making face masks mandatory for a full day on July 8th (5pm on July 7th). Note: Large segments were wearing before this, but part of town you were in made a huge difference.

Anyway, what I did with the data was compare the percent of change per week in cases. I made sure that July 8th was the start of a period even though it was a Wednesday Here's what I got.
Week ending:
Tuesday June 2nd (starting May 27th): -17.8% cases (708 down to 582 cases)
June 9th: 15.3% increase in cases (671 cases up from 582 cases)
June 16th: -7.3% in cases (622 cases down from 671)
June 23rd: 19.0% increase in cases (740 cases up from 622)
June 30th: 51.2% increase in cases (1119 cases up from 740)
July 7th: 28.6% increase in cases (1439 up from 1119)
July 14th: 38.1% increase in cases (1987 up from 1439). This is where Columbus's mask mandate should start to show up. Also skewed by July 4th weekend events being part of the period though.
July 21st: -6.5% in cases (1858 from 1987)
July 28th: -13.3% (1610 from 1858)

I'm one day shy on data to to the following week, but it appears to be another decline.

Have tried to make sense of numbers, but think too much noise in them. Have noted fewer people out since mask order (not that we were great before) which could be effecting things. Also of note is that a lot of people were using masks before the mandatory order. I could go into some stores and see it as high as 95% or so. Others areas of town/type of stores though stayed around 20%.

Everyone here (including virtually everyone I know) cheering lower numbers. It's hard to tell them we are just putting off the inevitable.

Columbus: ~900k people. 18,000 confirmed cases (JHU map). Multiply by 10 to get likely total cases, and you're at 20%. That should be at or real close to suppression and should expect a decline irrespective of any mandates.

Good point. I ran the Ohio numbers as a whole but not the Franklin County numbers on that. It's 18,006 in the county and not the city, but that still puts us 1.38% of the population officially positive. If the 1 in 10 holds up, thats better than 13.8% of the population infected.

This news has finally reached the liberals in my life. But they"re blaming it on the masks not being professionally designed and tested.

https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/....

The Goat Rodeo continues....

Masks are speeding up herd immunity, and in the process, infecting mask-holes possibly killing them, time to be Pro-Mask?

Here's today's insanity. It appears that for Sevier County, it may well be over.