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User Info Scientific Evidence: Mask Order INCREASES Transmission in forum [MaskHoles]
Goforbroke
Posts: 9287
Incept: 2007-11-30
A True American Patriot!
The tadpole is gone due to CV-19. I am hunkering down.
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Fauci refuses to do a controlled study on masks ...

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/....

Quote:
Dr. Anthony Fauci said Tuesday he opposes conducting a controlled study on the effectiveness of masks to prevent the spread of the coronavirus. Suggested he would never ask an individual to participate in a study that would involve not wearing a mask.


Yeah, but he'd have no problem forcing an unproven vaccine on everyone.

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It is death which gives meaning to life.
Tickerguy
Posts: 167307
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
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Today's data.

And the Mayor extended the order because, get this, HE SAYS THE STATE CAN'T TELL HIM YET WHETHER THE MASK ORDER WORKED.

So he's either too inbred or too stupid to use Excel himself. Never mind the neighboring counties.

Knox has a mask order, and is now seeing a ~5% daily case growth rate (!!)
Loudon and Blount (both near here and adjacent to Knox, as is Sevier) DO NOT have mask orders and are seeing LOWER growth rates.

NONE, except here, are nearing suppression yet. WE ARE; we're at 1.7% as of today, and it APPEARS that EXACTLY on schedule it is starting to roll over.

Twitter thread on this: https://twitter.com/tickerguy/status/129....


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If you will not force justice to be done by any means necessary when over 100,000 are murdered by political hacks from both parties do not complain or expect my help when you or someone you love dies at their hand. -- Me
Goforbroke
Posts: 9287
Incept: 2007-11-30
A True American Patriot!
The tadpole is gone due to CV-19. I am hunkering down.
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They. Don't. Care.

It's taken me so long to really understand that.

We. Are. ****ed.


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It is death which gives meaning to life.
Uwe
Posts: 8843
Incept: 2009-01-03
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USA
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KD wrote..
NONE, except here, are nearing suppression yet. WE ARE

I'm confused. If mask mandates get a place closer to suppression sooner, and they do that without overwhelming the hospitals, then isn't that A Good Thing?

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"Corona Virus will come and go, but government will NEVER forget how easy it was to take control of everyone's life; to control every sporting event, classroom, restaurant table, church pew, and even whether you are allowed to leave your house.
Tickerguy
Posts: 167307
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
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Uh, well, I don't know about that.

The problem with mandates is that they skew who gets it, and most of the time the skew is very negative in terms of outcome.

SEIR models (basically all epidemiological models) make one basic assumption -- transmission happens due to random circumstance in who you contact and thus can transmit to while infective.

Violate that premise and very bad, indeed ugly, things happen.

Witness NY. They violated it in a big way by concentrating a health care vector. As a result they have a hideous CFR because the "random" wasn't, and the people who got exposed were most-capable of being killed.

Mask mandates have a very high probability of doing the same sort of thing. It might not here because of the large tourist presence, but it certainly won't skew it more-favorably.

All bad-side risk, no good-side risk.

Indeed there is evidence we had suppression already before the mandate, -- we were Sweden, basically.

Now we've doubled that because we forced the virus into people who it could get sick.

Oops.

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If you will not force justice to be done by any means necessary when over 100,000 are murdered by political hacks from both parties do not complain or expect my help when you or someone you love dies at their hand. -- Me

Mannfm11
Posts: 6555
Incept: 2009-02-28

DFW, Tx
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Texas went crazy with masks. Only a large number of cases curved it. People, in large numbers have had them on since April. 20% maybe without them. I see morons driving with them.

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The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.---John Kenneth Galbraith
Tickerguy
Posts: 167307
Incept: 2007-06-26
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I'll bet that the mask-mania has basically doubled the suppression rate in the population. How else do you explain Sweden?

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If you will not force justice to be done by any means necessary when over 100,000 are murdered by political hacks from both parties do not complain or expect my help when you or someone you love dies at their hand. -- Me
Goforbroke
Posts: 9287
Incept: 2007-11-30
A True American Patriot!
The tadpole is gone due to CV-19. I am hunkering down.
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From 7/23 ...

https://www.newsweek.com/indiana-face-ma....
Quote:
Indiana Makes Not Wearing Mask a Class B Misdemeanor, Punishable by 6 Months in Jail

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It is death which gives meaning to life.
Wearedoomed
Posts: 4567
Incept: 2009-01-14

slightly red state
Online
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GFB: Yup. But the state AG and at least one sheriff have said that it's an unconstitutional, unenforceable order (no ****?!?). Of course, as you can imagine, the screamers on Faceblargh and NextDuuuur still gibber about the "necessity" of wearing masks and ad-hominem the AG et al.

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When the world is running down
You make the best of what's still around

- The Police

Tickerguy
Posts: 167307
Incept: 2007-06-26
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More stupid.....

Note that we appear to have reached suppression.

As has Davidson County (Nashville), although every screaming Karen says nobody's obeying their mask order. Well, if nobody's obeying it then they definitely don't work because cases have peaked there anyway.

And Knox, which has a mask order and.... well..... I wouldn't take the bet. They're up there, but I bet they're not done.
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If you will not force justice to be done by any means necessary when over 100,000 are murdered by political hacks from both parties do not complain or expect my help when you or someone you love dies at their hand. -- Me
Tickerguy
Posts: 167307
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
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Knox and Davidson...
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If you will not force justice to be done by any means necessary when over 100,000 are murdered by political hacks from both parties do not complain or expect my help when you or someone you love dies at their hand. -- Me
Tickerguy
Posts: 167307
Incept: 2007-06-26
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Goat rodeo, inbred "I got two teeth left" update....
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If you will not force justice to be done by any means necessary when over 100,000 are murdered by political hacks from both parties do not complain or expect my help when you or someone you love dies at their hand. -- Me
Mooreupp
Posts: 623
Incept: 2007-10-31

Ohio
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Was trying to figure the data for Columbus, Ohio. I think too much noise to get clear picture though. Columbus mandatory mask ordinance went into effect July 3rd. That means effects should start being seen July 8th right?

I looked for Columbus specific numbers, but best I could do was find Franklin County numbers (although Columbus is a big part of that at least). The site I found does not back date changes though (I know this because early on there was a day of -3 cases). https://www.cleveland.com/coronavirus/20.... For the rest of the county part, Franklin County was ordered from the state to start making face masks mandatory for a full day on July 8th (5pm on July 7th). Note: Large segments were wearing before this, but part of town you were in made a huge difference.

Anyway, what I did with the data was compare the percent of change per week in cases. I made sure that July 8th was the start of a period even though it was a Wednesday Here's what I got.
Week ending:
Tuesday June 2nd (starting May 27th): -17.8% cases (708 down to 582 cases)
June 9th: 15.3% increase in cases (671 cases up from 582 cases)
June 16th: -7.3% in cases (622 cases down from 671)
June 23rd: 19.0% increase in cases (740 cases up from 622)
June 30th: 51.2% increase in cases (1119 cases up from 740)
July 7th: 28.6% increase in cases (1439 up from 1119)
July 14th: 38.1% increase in cases (1987 up from 1439). This is where Columbus's mask mandate should start to show up. Also skewed by July 4th weekend events being part of the period though.
July 21st: -6.5% in cases (1858 from 1987)
July 28th: -13.3% (1610 from 1858)

I'm one day shy on data to to the following week, but it appears to be another decline.

Have tried to make sense of numbers, but think too much noise in them. Have noted fewer people out since mask order (not that we were great before) which could be effecting things. Also of note is that a lot of people were using masks before the mandatory order. I could go into some stores and see it as high as 95% or so. Others areas of town/type of stores though stayed around 20%.

Everyone here (including virtually everyone I know) cheering lower numbers. It's hard to tell them we are just putting off the inevitable.

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The Constitution is the law. It is not, and was never meant to be a "living document."
Uwe
Posts: 8843
Incept: 2009-01-03
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USA
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Columbus: ~900k people. 18,000 confirmed cases (JHU map). Multiply by 10 to get likely total cases, and you're at 20%. That should be at or real close to suppression and should expect a decline irrespective of any mandates.

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"Corona Virus will come and go, but government will NEVER forget how easy it was to take control of everyone's life; to control every sporting event, classroom, restaurant table, church pew, and even whether you are allowed to leave your house.
Mooreupp
Posts: 623
Incept: 2007-10-31

Ohio
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Good point. I ran the Ohio numbers as a whole but not the Franklin County numbers on that. It's 18,006 in the county and not the city, but that still puts us 1.38% of the population officially positive. If the 1 in 10 holds up, thats better than 13.8% of the population infected.

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The Constitution is the law. It is not, and was never meant to be a "living document."
Burya_rubenstein
Posts: 1781
Incept: 2007-08-08

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This news has finally reached the liberals in my life. But they"re blaming it on the masks not being professionally designed and tested.

https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/....

Reason: Added link
Tickerguy
Posts: 167307
Incept: 2007-06-26
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The Goat Rodeo continues....

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If you will not force justice to be done by any means necessary when over 100,000 are murdered by political hacks from both parties do not complain or expect my help when you or someone you love dies at their hand. -- Me
Flyanddive
Posts: 5068
Incept: 2008-10-10

Detroit
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Masks are speeding up herd immunity, and in the process, infecting mask-holes possibly killing them, time to be Pro-Mask?

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"I've seen people go into real poverty trying to pretend to be rich."
Tickerguy
Posts: 167307
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
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smiley

Here's today's insanity. It appears that for Sevier County, it may well be over.
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If you will not force justice to be done by any means necessary when over 100,000 are murdered by political hacks from both parties do not complain or expect my help when you or someone you love dies at their hand. -- Me
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