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Tickerguy
Posts: 167307
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
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.... doubled your suppression case rate for Covid-19?

Increased the hospitalized patient count by 67%?

Added a death or two while he was at it?

And now, has doubled down when he didn't get the results he wanted -- in fact he got the opposite -- for four straight weeks?

Impossible, you say?

I don't think so.

 


Contemplate this graph. On the 10th Sevier County put in place mask order. We were, at that point, enjoying a more than two-week long period, including a national holiday weekend, with decreasing case count percentages and, as expected on the lag, we were starting to see decreasing active cases too.

Now the prevalence of Covid at this point was about 0.8% of the population on an "as tested" basis. Not coincidentally, that's where Sweden is, more or less.

And Sweden is definitely within suppression. They imposed no lockdowns, no mask orders and no constraints. They simply asked people to "be adults", a concept that apparently is flatly impossible here in America.

Was Sevier County there? Quite possibly.

See, suppression is a bit of a sticky concept in that it is not a fixed number; what you do with various authorities can change it, but almost-never to the good. SEIR models all assume there is no "forcing"; that is, who you give a bug to is a purely random exercise. This is a presumption that often does not hold and the more forcing you do the more skew upward you pile onto the suppression rate.

This is true for all "mitigations"; they may not in fact mitigate. In the context of a virus a "mitigation" can only delay but not deny a transmission; as soon as said measure is removed whatever series was going to occur does anyway.

But you can very easily make things worse. I noted this very early on, when Minnesota had a stunning 40% of their infections in health care workers. At the time there were fewer than 400 cases in the general population across the entire state. I predicted that it blow up in their face and get very bad, because those health care workers would force transmission, and worse, they'd drive the virus into people that were easily killed.

Exactly that happened despite a total state lockdown.

Is it implausible that general mask mandate might do the same sort of thing? Not at all. Look at Japan. They have one. Everyone thought they had it under control, for that reason primarily. Good hygiene and they were nice obedient slaves to the mask orders.

Look now on WorldOMeter - https://www.worldometers.info/coronaviru....

Oops.

Their case rate has gone vertical, and the really bad news is that it just recently happened, so their fatality rate will likely rise -- a lot.

And worse, their CFR is already at 2.62%.

or look at Texas. Texas has had a "mask-mask-mask" prevalence exceeding 80%, even outdoors since April. And what happened to them? A huge spike anyway.

Did the mandates make it happen? Maybe.

Why?

Because you can't be in public and eat or drink with a mask on, that's why. Further, in other than climate-controlled conditions masks are ridiculously uncomfortable and thus you fiddle with them more, and each time you do you contaminate your hands. Nor can you reasonably don or doff a mask with proper procedure and confining the biological waste that the mask is in a safe way once you've worn it; a used mask cannot be safely reused unless it is sanitized first, yet they always are reused in the general population. This means you can't have an ordinary society with a mask order or as soon as someone takes one off to do something that requires removing it, like drinking water, or touches it with their hands they're guaranteed to cross-contaminate either something or someone and they've also carried whatever was collected by the mask over a large distance into a small space, concentrating it there.

In other words you've introduced a forcing mechanism into viral transmission, and this "thumb on the scale" is likely to increase the rate of disease.

That's very bad and the evidence is that this is exactly what happened in Sevier County.

Now look at our nice county which our Mayor has harmed with his actions, and just yesterday he confirmed his intent to continue that harm.

We had a nice, declining trend. Very nice. In fact, we had probably hit suppression absent some sort of forcing mechanism. We'd have continued to get cases but no growth in rate -- indeed, they were falling to nuisance levels.

Now we've doubled disease prevalence with a violent reversal of the previous trend in just three short weeks and are, well, hitting suppression again, but at the newer, higher concentration.

See, if you have 50% of the population with some resistance then the difference of an unforced and forced suppression is between 60% and 70%, basically. 60% doesn't stop the virus entirely and neither does 70%. But it does slow it, and that slowing continues. This is why you get Farr's Law, and we were getting it right here in Sevier County.

But now by signing that outrageously stupid and malicious "Order", which had zero scientific or statistical justification on the rate of disease at the time it was signed, and now has been continued because the Mayor didn't get the result he wanted (in fact he got the opposite) the Mayor, through malice, stupidity or both doubled the County's case rate. Said "forcing" is really only good for 10 points before suppression occurs -- but that's a clean double in disease. The problem is that the innate resistance was good for 50, and that 50 was good no matter whether you did the forcing or not.

This is also illustrated by the camp experience in Georgia, where about half the campers got it.

For only 50% of the campers to get the bug is impossible, I remind you, when racking kids 2-up with each stack next to each other and one bathroom in the cabin if everyone is susceptible. Oh, don't tell me I'm full of it; my daughter went to one of those summer camps, and that's exactly what the accommodations are. If one kid gets something every single one that is susceptible is going to get it immediately. You can count on that.

But only half did.

Which means the other half were immune.

Exactly what I put forward in late February and early March as the only rational hypothesis that explained not only Diamond Princess but also Kirkland, and now we've had confirmed by not one but two peer-reviewed studies.

Put the same kids from that camp in your town, but not sleeping in the same cabin -- just hanging around town like everyone else and this all changes. Now 2% of them get tested positive, and another 15% get it but don't get tested because their symptoms are too mild -- or they have none at all. Notice what happened -- by forcing transmission you took what was a ~10-20% attack rate of a virus and turned into a 50% attack rate; somewhere between more than a double and five times what it would have otherwise been.

The evidence is quite clear; it is in fact very probable that Sevier County had reached suppression on or about July 10th. The data from Sweden says it is far from fanciful that suppression might have been reached. Our Mayor simply aborted the test and not only did he not have evidence of a problem the data clearly stated that there wasn't one.

Now we will again reach suppression, and indeed likely are reaching it right now but at what cost in morbidity? And why shouldn't Mayor Waters be personally held to account financially for those other people who had to go to the hospital -- and the one who, thus far, has died?

After all, he DID put the order in place and he DID create the forcing mechanism. It was not through the voluntary actions of the population that such forcing occurred -- it was through actual, "at gunpoint" force.

This was the act of a tyrant, and the data says it made people sick.

250 years ago we shot and killed the British over a 3% tax on tea. We went to war with smallpox ravaging the land on a repeated basis, and it killed 30% of those who got it. We did it anyway. A few decades ago a man sat on top of an old WWII rocket with a history of blowing up more than one time in ten and went into space. His name was Alan Shepard, he knew damn well what was pretty likely to happen and he did it anyway. We put the whole thing on TV despite knowing it might explode as soon as the button was pushed. We did it anyway.

Now we sit still and in fact CHEER Mayors and Governors who tell us to make other people sick, concentrating disease in vulnerable populations on a preferential basis and killing sixty-five TIMES as many in the United States as in Singapore, where they refused to do that. We laud those who make us sick and call them heroes. We wear STAR OF DAVID-style conformity badges on our face that in fact SPREAD disease.

What made America worth something is gone.

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If you will not force justice to be done by any means necessary when over 100,000 are murdered by political hacks from both parties do not complain or expect my help when you or someone you love dies at their hand. -- Me

Goforbroke
Posts: 9287
Incept: 2007-11-30
A True American Patriot!
The tadpole is gone due to CV-19. I am hunkering down.
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Quote:
And for the support of this Declaration, with a firm reliance on the protection of Divine Providence, we mutually pledge to each other our Lives, our Fortunes, and our sacred Honor.
The basic social contract upon which this country was founded has been rendered null and void. Once that goes, so does everything else.

Trust is dead.

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It is death which gives meaning to life.
Dji
Posts: 1430
Incept: 2009-04-21

Ponzi world 3rd rock from the sun
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Well first thing I thought of was this...




Do you have NAT. gas there?

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Don't be a bag holder-Me

What goes up Must come Down- Alan Parsons Project

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