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User Info Simple Math -- Granny Died Because You Didn't Do It in forum [MaskHoles]
Tickerguy
Posts: 169125
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
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Folks, this is really not very complicated.

Let's take a virus that infects people much like a flu does. Let's presume that there is cross-immunity, and that some percentage up to about half of the population has some pre-existing immunity from other similar viruses. That immunity may provide some protection rather than complete protection, but whatever level it provides if you have it you'll get less sick, maybe not sick at all, and you shed much less virus because replication does not go as far in you.

Let us start with a population of 100,000 people. Beyond the roughly 50,000 that have some immunity we have another 20,000 that have to either get the virus or be vaccinated before transmission calms down. The problem with vaccinating people is that unless you had it you don't know if you're cross-immune so you don't have to vaccinate 20,000 people, you have to vaccinate 70,000 since you have no idea who you have to stick AND the vaccine has to be safe enough that if you give it to someone who is already immune, that is, it has NO BENEFIT AT ALL, you don't harm them. If you fail that essential test one or more of the 70,000, or their next of kin, may hunt you down, eat your children in front of you and then slice off your appendages one at a time until you expire and, if said person was already immune, YOU DESERVE IT since there was no possible benefit to the shot for them.

Incidentally at present there is no such vaccine either, so even if you WANTED to give those 70,000 shots, AND you could get people to take them, AND zero of them were harmed to the point that they ate your children you can't because it doesn't exist.

All of this means that over the next period of time your community is going to take 20,000 infections -- like it or not.

You can bitch, you can whine, you can try to delay, you can scream as a Karen until the cows come home but the 20,000 infections will eventually happen. We are simply talking about when, not what. The sole issue in terms of OUTCOME appears to be whether your hospitals can handle it. If not then far more die than need to, because someone has a heart attack and can't get a bed. That's bad, and should be prevented.

Now let's further presume the virus has this characteristic.

If you are under 50, the odds of your surviving if you get it are 99.95%.
If you are over 65, the odds of you surviving are 94.5%.

That is, it is one hundred times more likely that if you're old you will die compared with being young.

Now let us FURTHER assume that 20% of the population is over 65.

By the way -- I am describing, more or less, Covid19 and the actual population distribution in my county. I'm only stretching the "65 and older" a bit, because on death it's actually 75 and older, and I don't have a good breakdown from the Census on that in the county.

So if we "normally distribute" the 20,000 cases there are 20% of them that wind up being suffered by those who have roughly 5.5% risk of dying. That is 4,000 cases and of them 220 die.

Everyone else takes the other 16,000 cases and 0.05% of those people die, or 8 people out of that group wind up dead.

How stupid are you?

You're real stupid because this is exactly what we did.

And it was stupid.

In fact it was criminally stupid, and still is. It is so criminally stupid that if YOUR Grandmother is dead, and you're young, maybe you should consider that she died because you listened to REEEEEing Karens and idiot government officials instead of telling them to go **** themselves; if you had shoved your local Mayor's and Governor's mandates up his or her ass sideways your Gram would probably still be alive!

Were I Governor or Mayor and faced with this I'd throw Friday night raves, no masks, no capacity limits, open kegs, pack 'em in. Mosh pit, whole nine yards. I'd post a big fat sign on the door saying there was probably Covid in there, you might get sick, here are the odds, entering the door requires signing a legal consent form and release -- and please do not come in if you live with someone over the age of 50.

I would card you at the door and if under 21 (since there's booze) or over 50, get lost. Everyone else -- come and get it -- literally come and get it.

Why?

Because I want that 20,000 to be absorbed by people who have a 0.05% risk of being killed instead of those with 5% risk, that's why!

Yeah, I know, it's not going to be perfect and some old people will get it anyway. Some young people will come even though they live with an old person. Some old people will not INSIST that those young people they live with get the **** out of their house if they won't stay at home.

That decision is theirs, not mine; it's their risk and their ass. I respect that decision.

But what happens if I do this?

Old people don't take 4,000 cases. They might only take 1,000.

And instead of 220 old people who are dead there are 50 dead old people.
Instead of 8 young people who are dead there are a stunning.... 9 or 10. One or two more.

So instead of 220 + 8 or 228 people who die before we reach suppression levels only 60 people die.

That's a SEVENTY-FOUR PERCENT reduction and it didn't cost anyone a nickel, didn't close a single business, didn't put a single person out of a job and didn't require a single skittle-****ting Unicorn vaccine that is untested and will not be fully tested for five years.

All I had to do was buy a few kegs of beer. For 168 lives? That's damned cheap.

If I can shift the numbers even further by being more aggressive about young people getting it then perhaps I can get the senior count down even further. And guess what -- we could and we still can.

What we've done is exactly the opposite.

Mask mandates inhibit human interaction. No mandates and young people together leads to close contact which leads to even closer contact (wink-wink nudge-nudge.) We banned it. We should have handed out rubbers by the case.

We throw college age kids out of school if they throw a kegger. We ought to buy the ****ing kegs instead along with the rubbers!

We put masks on kids in school and plastic up dividing the desks which is brain-dead STUPID since virtually NONE of them get seriously ill BUT EVERY ONE OF THEM HELPS REACHING THAT SUPPRESSION NUMBER.

Instead we should have pushed every desk TOGETHER so spacing is MINIMIZED and packed the lunch hall every single day. I want every kid in the place to get it; if there are 10,000 kids in the county in those schools THAT IS HALF OF THE SUPPRESSION NUMBER ALL ON ITS OWN AND ZERO OF THEM ARE LIKELY TO GET SERIOUSLY ILL OR DIE!

Oh, you say the teachers are scared? Well guess what -- then they can **** OFF and quit. They don't show up for work that's fine -- I'll play Ronnie Reagan and PATCO the entire lot of them. **** EVERY ONE OF THOSE SELF-ABSORBED BASTARDS AND ****S.

I'll go teach MYSELF if that's what it comes to. I understand the math. I understand that if I take a bit more risk MY MOTHER DOES NOT DIE AND NEITHER DOES YOURS.

That's the math folks.

It's inescapable.

We have done exactly the opposite, we've done it on purpose, we have skewed the cases toward older and sicker people who are more-likely to get killed, we knew this would blow up in our face after it did in Kirkland in ****ing MARCH and yet here we are in October with growing hospitalizations and deaths on a national basis because we did not encourage those LEAST LIKELY to get sick to get on with life and live and in fact ENCOURAGE their social behaviors -- AND TO THIS DAY WE ARE TRYING TO REPRESS THEM!

We shifted the suppression curve THE WRONG WAY with this bull**** and it's killing people.

**** you people.
**** you all straight to Hell.
Every last ******ned one of you.
And ESPECIALLY every single Governor save ONE, every Mayor and every other official up to and including our douche-nozzle Orange Man in the Death House.

Math is not political.
And it cannot be argued over either.

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I don't give a flying **** if you're offended.

Mannfm11
Posts: 6667
Incept: 2009-02-28

DFW, Tx
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From what I understand, from the Democrats is math is political. So is science. They still haven't told the public it comes out of your ass, not your mouth.

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The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.---John Kenneth Galbraith
Tickerguy
Posts: 169125
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
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Yep.

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I don't give a flying **** if you're offended.
Mannfm11
Posts: 6667
Incept: 2009-02-28

DFW, Tx
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You might find this John Cullen video interesting.

https://www.bitchute.com/video/ZfqqWKLqO....

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The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.---John Kenneth Galbraith
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