I don't know about a rally. What convinced me we were doomed, and to go long of doom, was that chart analyst who was on Fast Money, Wednesday afternoon. He wasn't saying it, but he was telling everyone we are in for an ominous event, and he was really convincing.

So. I don't know who has the brass ones to go long tomorrow. Even a rate cut might just cause a "sell into the rally" fizzle later in the day.

It will be funny to see the dow under 12k tomorrow. I'm shocked at how fast this thing has unwound.

What's the catalyst for a bounce here? Who wants to be a hero? The volume and money flow OUT have been just huge this last week (which tells me big money is really running for the exits here). I keep track of V&M each day and the last 2 days a ****load of money has left the market (around 2-3 times the average).

IMHO, if there is any type of rally, it will get squashed with more pros running for the exits to protect 5 years worth of gains.

GE - already at a 52 week low would have to screw up to not get a bounce.

I think the dow futes are starting to price in a GE bounce as we speak - so maybe somebody either knows something or is very confidant.

An IBM bounce PLUS a GE bounce PLUS an oversold bounce equals at LEAST 200 points on the Dow so a lot is riding on GE.........

Genesis, could it be that heavy call buying caused the VIX to break the triangle?

I don't care WHAT drives the VIX up, so long as it does.

Looks like we ARE bouncing this morning. Be careful trying to play short today......

What I meant was that the boken triangle in the VIX could be read as a bounce confirmation rather than a non confirmation

Genesis, I listen to you faithfully. I'm not a blow smoke up you know where, but GREAT CALL last night. You make logic out of the chaos and I like that. I hope you don't mind my compliment to you here in this section. I don't post often but I needed to give you congrats. Now although the market hasn't opened, still, you had the balls to say we were oversold and put your money on the line to back it up.
Best of health and continued intelligent observations and calculations. Thanks and Peace to all. Stoney

Boz, it was Carter Worth and he's been right on the money. They seem to mock the guy since he reads charts.

Note that the VIX triangle upper boundary - to the point anyway - has held.

This is verrry bad over the intermediate term - if you're a bull.

KD, it doesn't look like a rally or a crash today. It just looks like a slow grind down, which is exactly what you said couldn't happen. ABK lost their AAA and their stock goes UP - and the market doesn't care or notice.

Is it possible that the chart patterns and TA don't apply when we are in this strange of a market?

We're in very serious trouble in terms of a potential rally.

The triangles did not get re-entered, in fact, the decline worsened on the SPX and $DJI.

I don't think it will rally at all, that's why I held my positions. But what held us up today, with the ABK downgrade of all things? Or are we looking at the big picture a little too much around here?

Yeah - this was something we never covered....a slide sideways. Is all the previous charting trashed or still in play?

Jeez....that was a waste of a day.

Its actually more in play now than it was before.

The PUTs that were protecting against a big **** are now expired, and they were not repurchased.

One piece of bad news with a blown-up wedge and.....

KD, do you think there is any hope of attaching statistical significance to a chart pattern? I think there is something to TA, but it really feels like alchemy sometimes. I want to do chemistry.

Sure.

Chart patterns have various reliabilities associated with them.

There are also fundamental matters that align here. I'll be covering it in the weekend edition - it may not be up until Saturday, as I'm gonna go have some fun this evening and there's no rush - you can't do dick until Tuesday anyway.